Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Geordiesnow]

The 18z GFS is still NNE'ly, not NNW'ly. The snow showers will get at least as far inland as they did yesterday, and the event could last the best part of three days.

I had another look and too me, it seems for monday it starts off as a slightly NNE'ly, then stright Northerly, then perhaps Monday night is when they do veer NNW'ly, its not too bad after having another look at it but with the shortwaves scare, then I much prefer the ecm and ukmo!

The FAX charts look really good though!

[Thundery wintry showers]

In stark contrast to the previous few days, I prefer the UKMO output over the GFS/ECMWF- we get a fairly straightforward east to north-easterly flow with troughs which would help to bring bands of heavy snow showers a fair way inland despite the relatively light winds. All outputs are looking snowy within 50 miles of the east coast IMHO, and a lot less marginal temperature-wise near the coastal fringes in particular, though areas further inland look less likely to catch significant showery activity than they did on the basis of yesterday's runs.

[Geordiesnow]

In stark contrast to the previous few days, I prefer the UKMO output over the GFS/ECMWF- we get a fairly straightforward east to north-easterly flow with troughs which would help to bring bands of heavy snow showers a fair way inland despite the relatively light winds. All outputs are looking snowy within 50 miles of the east coast IMHO, and a lot less marginal temperature-wise near the coastal fringes in particular, though areas further inland look less likely to catch significant showery activity than they did on the basis of yesterday's runs.

As you menturn though, what I find is the models always seem to underestimate how far PPN heads inland even in Northerly flows, I mean we often see showers reaching the Pennines so in an easterly, it should be no problem unless the flow is too slack.

I like the ECM run, it brings colder uppers in and more instability I feel and there is no shortwave drama! See what the runs in the morning brings.

[doggy123]

Rain seems to be turning to sleet here in north tyneside could see some snow later on maybe

[Isolated Frost]

As you menturn though, what I find is the models always seem to underestimate how far PPN heads inland even in Northerly flows, I mean we often see showers reaching the Pennines so in an easterly, it should be no problem unless the flow is too slack.

I like the ECM run, it brings colder uppers in and more instability I feel and there is no shortwave drama! See what the runs in the morning brings.

It feels weird to be choosing between snowy N/NNE winds with cold uppers or E/NE winds with cold uppers and shortwaves after the pre-2008 period!

[Geordiesnow]

Rain seems to be turning to sleet here in north tyneside could see some snow later on maybe

Really, just looks like plain old rain too me sadly.

Today has been a bit of a let down, PPN never made it over the Pennines until evening time and it was too late by then, never mind, I doubt this rain will turn to snow but I suppose we could keep a slight eye on it. Doubt it will accumulate mind.

[Geordiesnow]

It feels weird to be choosing between snowy N/NNE winds with cold uppers or E/NE winds with cold uppers and shortwaves after the pre-2008 period!

Shortwaves? Surely you mean a trough Arjan?? If we have a shortwave in an easterly flow(which seems a little unlikely) then it would scupper the flow all together!

The best set up would be a NNE'ly, slowly veering into more of an easterly as per the ECM run, what happens after 120 hours is all speculation as per usual so would not read too much into it personally.

If by this time tomorrow, the models have firmed up on the snowy potential for Monday into Tuesday, I may start get a bit excited.

[doggy123]

Yeah mostly rain a few bits of sleet mixed in nothing to get excited about at the minute

[Liam J]

Much better morning here, clear calm & 1.5c.

Just had a look at the GFS 00z and they have a look of Feb 1996 about them, the most epic blizzard I've ever seen in

Cumbria & the NW which produced 30cm+ of level snow and much deeper drifts.

[Alex95]

The 00z runs have downgraded our snow potential for next week.

The GFS is the worst of the bunch, and shows us getting some wintry showers on Monday, then the high pressure moves over the UK and we stay dry and cold all week. I'm not ruling out the chance of some snow showers on Monday night, but it's certainly not the snowfest we had began to expect.

The ECM is still good for us as it gives is a cold, slack N'ly, NE'ly and ENE'ly winds etc all week. In fact I'd say the ECM is ideal for us as we get 4-5 days of heavy snow.

The UKMO would give heavy snow within 10 miles of the coast on Monday night until it turns dry and cold on Wednesday morning, so I guess that would still be a pretty good solution for us.

However, I have a feeling the GFS could be on to something as it is usually the best at modelling shortwaves when we get nearer the time.

Much better morning here, clear calm & 1.5c.

Just had a look at the GFS 00z and they have a look of Feb 1996 about them, the most epic blizzard I've ever seen in

Cumbria & the NW which produced 30cm+ of level snow and much deeper drifts.

Way too far ahead to say, we have just seen how big changes can occur when things get into the +96 timeframe! :o

Edited December 7, 2012 by Alza

[NickR]

The 00z runs have downgraded our snow potential for next week.

The GFS is the worst of the bunch, and shows us getting some wintry showers on Monday, then the high pressure moves over the UK and we stay dry and cold all week. I'm not ruling out the chance of some snow showers on Monday night, but it's certainly not the snowfest we had began to expect.

Anyone who was "expecting" it can't have been following model output for long (or seen the signs in the ens yesterday).

[Alex95]

Anyone who was "expecting" it can't have been following model output for long (or seen the signs in the ens yesterday).

Oh, I never thought it was nailed, but it looked extremely likely that we would see some snow next week, even if it only was going to be on Monday & Tuesday! I guess I could have worded that better.

I think I actually said yesterday that I was nervous of high pressure sinking over the UK, leaving us dry and frosty, so I'm certainly not shocked by this run.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Alza

[NickR]

Unless it's an E'ly at T72 I don't get excited.

Edited December 7, 2012 by NickR

[Alex95]

Unless it's an E'ly at T72 I don't get excited.

Sensible, but it's so hard not to get drawn in!

After having another look at the GFS, I think we might still get some snow showers for a time next week. In January 2003 there was a few inches in Newcastle from a similar set up with very light winds and high pressure over Scotland.

Edited December 7, 2012 by Alza

[NL]

Unless it's an E'ly at T72 I don't get excited.

I never look further than 72hrs on the major models. The only model I look at for medium range forecasting is the CPC 500Mb anomaly charts, although it can be wrong I find it quite accurate most of the time.

Anyway most of the snow has been washed away from the heavy rain/sleet last night but we still have ice and my 'natural' pond in the back garden is still frozen at around a cm thick.

[NL]

Cold weather alert from the met office is now the highest at level 3 for the coming week. They also state that heavy snow showers giving significant accumulations locally in the east of the country... Looking very disruptive for us lot in the NE... The rest of the country will hate us northeasterners by the end of the week when we post knee deep snow pictures..!!

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/coldweatheralert/

[P-M]

Eaxctly NL - also on the flip side to take this morning's output as gospel and say we are only going to get a few showers need to look at the Metoffice website. John Holmes has stated I think that the 120 Fax Chart is probably closer the mark so far so yes game on for us in the NE up to now.

The models will flip and flop as they did in thge 2010 spell...

And Alza as much as I like your knowledgable posts you are bad for ups and downs with every model run. So far I can see that next week still holds potential. If the models are still backtracking tomorrow then yes but one run over night is not a case for a massive downgrade as we have all seen previously. I am not saying we will see snowmageddon but we need to wait and see the next few runs before making definite statements re this (not aimed at you mainly some people in the MOD thread)

Edited December 7, 2012 by Wishful-Thinking

[Andy_]

The far north thread! Only place to be

Can't believe I missed the 6-8cm fall here on Wednesday, sickening!

Next week is looking synoptically superb for the region. The possibilities that lie for the NE in particular from Monday onwards are infinite. Staggering.

Aww mate I forgot you were in Belgium haha did you see snow there?

[NickR]

6-8cm?

Only a few low lying places got that much, as well as in some people's heads.

[Isolated Frost]

Aww mate I forgot you were in Belgium haha did you see snow there?

A touch yesterday morning, nothing to get giddy about!

Nick- Alza said he had 8cm and (apparently), my dad had 6cm soon after that pic

Love the MT- crying over the lack of an incredible easterly with -10c uppers widespread and the lot! I've given up on them now- all I can say is, the FAXes and MO updates look very conductive to a north, turning north-east/east-north-east flow beginning Monday... and as far as I am concerned, the easterly can do one! We never seem to do to well with easterlies compared to convective NE'lies or ENE'lies.

The breakdown also looks potentially very wintry next Friday onwards with continental SE'lies against a pretty powerful atlantic low- if the block can retain itself, some very heavy snow next weekend is possible.

Already a better winter than the last one...

[Andy_]

A touch yesterday morning, nothing to get giddy about!

Nick- Alza said he had 8cm and (apparently), my dad had 6cm soon after that pic

I feel for you hah, the second you leave the north east it chucks it down with snow, and the second you leave Belgium it chucks it down there (and still is now)!

It won't matter by Monday though

[Isolated Frost]

Tyne and Wear/Durham

Sunday morning

Sunday afternoon

Sunday evening

Monday morning

Monday afternoon

Monday evening

Tuesday morning

Tuesday afternoon

Tuesday evening

My highly amateur expectations of how the first 3 days of the upcoming spell will pan out- in terms of weather conditions- intermittent snow shrs on Monday becoming more prolonged and heavy on Tuesday.

[Isolated Frost]

hi-res NMM precip for Tuesday morning- quite a wishbone effect, but does move further inland and is quite heavy.

-7c and -8c uppers definitely conductive to heavy snow shrs-

SSTs around 9c as of today- could warm it up quite a bit so we maybe need uppers of colder than -6c and 950mb temps (important in this situation) around -2c or lower- lots of convection to be had though

Edited December 7, 2012 by Isolated Frost

[Andy_]

hi-res NMM precip for Tuesday morning- quite a wishbone effect, but does move further inland and is quite heavy.

-7c and -8c uppers definitely conductive to heavy snow shrs-

SSTs around 9c as of today- could warm it up quite a bit so we maybe need uppers of colder than -6c and 950mb temps (important in this situation) around -2c or lower- lots of convection to be had though

Canny website that like, www.meteocenter.eu, showing showers on the east coast from the get go on Monday

[Geordiesnow]

lots of convection to be had though

I don't agree with that sadly IF, if high pressure is close enough, convection is going to be limited, the GFS shows that well in its PPN charts. Really got to hope any shortwave activity does not push the high too far southwards again, if we can stay in those pale greens in terms of the thicknesses charts then I'm confident there will be enough PPN around.

Although the charts are not as good as yesterday for our region, they could be worse in fairness, still time for the detail to change, lets just hope its for the better!