Far North of England Regional Discussion

[Isolated Frost]

Ignoring the less cold air flow- I wouldn't worry about the proximity of the hp ridge, which the GFS certainly is very much promoting- against the other nwp and human input

[Geordiesnow]

With all due respect IF, that is last night FAX, its old data now, wait and see what tonights FAX chart shows.

The chart you posted is a little different to the ones we got now, the centre of the high is in Norway, whereas the high this time could be a bit closer to home, secondly theres slightly lower thicknesses on that chart, and I may assume the uppers are colder also.

Although you should not take the PPN at face value, the 06Z is not bad at all for our region, Monday should be a showery day with lower pressure, lower thicknesses, the only things that would ruin Monday's potential is wind direction and how cold the air is, looks a little marginal too me especially during daylight hours, could see a repeat of Wednesday with snow showers but melting between the showers.

Its a marginal set up with marginal uppers, still some nail biting to go yet.

[Isolated Frost]

The chart you posted is a little different to the ones we got now, the centre of the high is in Norway, whereas the high this time could be a bit closer to home, secondly theres slightly lower thicknesses on that chart, and I may assume the uppers are colder also.

You raise fair points- but the point I was making is that pressure will be relatively similar in both scenarios- and though the upper high may be slightly nearer (though to the west)- the surface high pressure centre is deep to the north east.

GFS 12z an upgrade with a more shallow low to the east, a more progressive ridge allowing NE winds to arrive earlier for Monday- though as you say, plenty of nail biting... and fun

[Geordiesnow]

GFS 12z an upgrade with a more shallow low to the east, a more progressive ridge allowing NE winds to arrive earlier for Monday- though as you say, plenty of nail biting... and fun

Its not an upgrade though, its not much difference but we got an extra shortwave added into the mix, the flow is weaker, and high pressure is marginally closer than the 06Z run was. You can see this as the -5hpa does not extend as far South and West.

Slightly better orientation to the low meant we attracted slightly colder uppers but thats it, the convective window has shortened on this run. Still, let see what the UKMO says, hopefully the GFS is going OTT with the shortwaves!

[NickR]

Seems to me that the chances for wintry ppn are looking lower up here and far greater now in the SE. This is often the risk with E'lies - that we end up with unspectacular amounts, where EA and the SE get plastered. The trend on successive GFS runs suggests to me that this might be the case this time too.

[Isolated Frost]

Its not an upgrade though, its not much difference but we got an extra shortwave added into the mix, the flow is weaker, and high pressure is marginally closer than the 06Z run was. You can see this as the -5hpa does not extend as far South and West.

Slightly better orientation to the low meant we attracted slightly colder uppers but thats it, the convective window has shortened on this run. Still, let see what the UKMO says, hopefully the GFS is going OTT with the shortwaves!

An upgrade wrt the cold moving in a lot closer, and a NE flow for Monday- after that- it went shortwave crazy!

GFS has a very interesting relationship with shortwaves- will wait until the UKMO, FAX and ECM ENS to reserve judgment on the GFS.

[P-M]

Seems to me that the chances for wintry ppn are looking lower up here and far greater now in the SE. This is often the risk with E'lies - that we end up with unspectacular amounts, where EA and the SE get plastered. The trend on successive GFS runs suggests to me that this might be the case this time too.

Wait for the Fax Charts tonight Nick they were saying different yesterday also...

[Isolated Frost]

UKMO joins the GFS in the respect that shortwaves influence the ridge to build over the UK- which is worrying in terms of convective snow shrs over the NE for Monday onwards. FAX coming out now.

[Geordiesnow]

No matter how much you dress it up Arjan, we have seen downgrades I'm afraid mate. Downgrades in the sence of the snow potential rather than the cold itself.

Nothing you can do about it, the only hope is that the models are being to progressive in sinking the high.

Hope the ecm can save the day and shows a more blocked set up.

[NickR]

You've got to laugh, really. Twice in 3 weeks! LMAO

[Isolated Frost]

You've got to laugh, really. Twice in 3 weeks! LMAO

Pfft- I missed the one major snowfall- never mind the model chaos!

[Andy_]

Someone explain how the Atlantic is coming in so early? Is this the most probable scenario?

[Isolated Frost]

North East England 90% Very cold with snow showers, giving significant accumulations in places.

That is from the Met Office's alert this morning for Monday 0000 to Friday 0800- do you think the pros at Exeter will react immediately to NWP? Or will their FAX product reflect the current predictions prior to these latest ops?

[I Cumbria Marra I]

some places in the east will still get a few cm

[NickR]

GEM joins the carcrash.

How's Spring looking on the CFS?

[Andy_]

Lashing it down outside like, showers from the North Sea funnily enough hah

[JP1972]

Haven't been able to post this week due to work but wasn't Wednesday's snowfall great in NE England?! The showers were heavy, intense and very frequesnt giving 30 minute showers at one point!

Anyway, back to the upcoming cold blip and isn't funny watching grown men (or at least I assume they are grown men) spit their dummies out over whether an easterly will develop or not?!?! It's been funny to sit back and watch them all crying like babies to be frankly honest

Game Over, Models are rubbish, bin this run blah blah.

It's weather folks and there ain't nothing you can do about it.

Anyway, I reckon NE England will get more snow showers next week....

[Teesdale]

Decent snow on the western side of the N Pennines much lower and deep than on the Lakes it would appear. Been to Kendal today surprised how high the snowline was.

https://twitter.com/i/#!/teesdaleweathe ... 2Fmuw2MBsG

[Cloud 10]

Heavy snow in the early hours of the morning left a decent covering here with poor

travelling conditions first thing.

Some fairly heavy showers this evening with the odd bit of sleet but should clear away

later in the night giving a high ice risk for tomorrow.

Meanwhile the 12z ECM has the cold air in place over us at +72 hrs,after that its anyone's guess!

http://www.meteociel...712/ECM0-72.GIF

[Alex95]

The NE'ly for early next week has practically vanished now - we would be lucky to even get an inch or two. After that though anything could happen, including a second attempt at an easterly, a snowy breakdown, or the Atlantic barrelling in with a vengeance. I still think next week will feel wintry, so let's go in with low expectations and enjoy the frosty, seasonal weather if nothing else.

I'm hearing mutterings of a MMW. Severe January?

[JP1972]

The NE'ly for early next week has practically vanished now - we would be lucky to even get an inch or two. After that though anything could happen, including a second attempt at an easterly, a snowy breakdown, or the Atlantic barrelling in with a vengeance. I still think next week will feel wintry, so let's go in with low expectations and enjoy the frosty, seasonal weather if nothing else.

I'm hearing mutterings of a MMW. Severe January?

Yeah, my earlier post was clearly a touch premature, it would seem (at the minute) as if this cold spell is shortening by the run which is terribly disappointing.

Still, could be worse. I could be Steve Murr (Capatin IMBY personified) who, God bless him, puts his faith in every cold/snowy run only to look like a right twonk pretty much everytime he posts nowadays

[Thundery wintry showers]

I've booked my trip to Norwich for next week, but the models have toned down the showery potential to such an extent today that there is no guarantee of wintry showers in Norwich at any point from Tuesday onwards, and it's a similar story for NE England, even near the coast. Monday looks set to have a fair number of showers down the eastern side of England, which will be wintry but it isn't clear if it will be cold enough for widespread snow cover at low levels.

[Cloud 10]

Latest fax chart for Monday looking good with a nice trough lying down the East

coast,just a question of how far inland any showers can get.

[Summer Sun]

'Beast from the East' set to blast region

MOTORISTS have been told to expect extreme conditions next week as a Siberian weather front dubbed the ‘Beast from the East’ blasts the North East and North Yorkshire. Police forces across the region renewed warnings over icy roads and pavements tonight (Friday, December 7), despite temperatures rising from -7.2C in Topcliffe, near Thirsk, North Yorkshire on Thursday to a low of 0.1C at Fylingdales, on the North York Moors today. The warnings follow an 11-year-old boy being critically injured after a Range Rover was hit by a freight train near Greenhead, Northumberland, on Thursday, and police saying snow and ice could have been a factor.

The Met Office said the North-East could see an accumulation of snow on Monday as showers filter in off the North Sea and issued a severely cold weather alert for the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. It is believed temperatures could dip as low as -15C early next week and winds of up to 45mph will make it feel even colder. A Meteogroup forecaster said Saturday would see a chilly start across the region, with icy patches and early sunshine giving way to a blanket of cloud from the north, bringing drizzle in the evening. He said: “Temperatures should become milder over the weekend, but overnight on Saturday there will be wintry showers and snow on higher ground.

“However, after the weekend it become cold until after Wednesday, when the maximum temperature will be around 1C.†North Yorkshire Police and the Environment Agency have urged people to exercise caution following the recent flooding. They warned that flooding and surface water were still affecting isolated areas, which would be prone to difficult and icy conditions as temperatures plunged. An Environment Agency spokesman said: “The cold snap may easily turn this into sheets of ice and whether we’re walking or driving we need to be very careful, to be aware of temperatures and to watch our footing and our speed.â€

http://www.thenorthe...o_blast_region/

[Geordiesnow]

I'm hearing mutterings of a MMW. Severe January?

I heard mutterings of a interesting November and December on a cold/snow POV and in all honesty, it has not really happened, I mean, the most we seemed to have is a few possible frontal snow events(one which was just rain in the end) and a couple of minor snow events which quickly melted. Nothing out of the ordinary and I've seen better snow set ups even during the milder winters! So lets not even think about January because in all honesty, I do not care at the moment.

December could still be a snowy month although signs at the moment are not the most appealing on the face of it but its that P word again - potential.