Does the migration of certain birds species really indicate the weather

[Jan]

Waxwings have been spotted in suburban gardens here on Merseyside and a record number of Whooper swans have descended on Martin Mere in West Lancs, with more expected. I wondered if this is an indication of a severe winter. Does anybody know if it's true or is it an old wives tale?

[mike Meehan]

I am no expert but I think it indicates that the conditions where they have come from are quite severe, for example in Scandinavia and northern Russia at the moment, so, especially if they can get a favourable wind, they head for 'greener' pastures where more food is available.

There may be a certain amount of truth in our winters being more severe because, if, as per my example, the Scandinavian/northern Russia winter is severe, there is always a chance of the cold overspilling to reach our area with the right synoptics.

[Jan]

I never thought of it like that, not being twitcher. I don't get birds in my garden as there are far too many cats around. The Waxwing looks like a lovely looking bird I would be mortified if I put food out and the cats got it. Will have to see if we do get a severe winter then

[Crepuscular Ray]

According to the British Trust for Ornithology (or perhaps the RSPB), we're more likely to see species that don't normally come into gardens because there's so little food for them in their usual haunts because the dry spring and wet summer prevented a lot of wild fruit and nuts setting and ripening. The same happened in Scandinavia, so there's nothing for them to eat there, so they migrated early and in larger numbers than usual.

[Village]

So in short, birds cant predict the weather, they just respond to past weather.

[ARTDEMOLE]

The expected weather will drive the birds into the suburbs and gardens.Do have a lot visiting the feeders.Fatballs and mixed seed is going faster than hotcakes..Going to cost a bit more this year to help our feathered friends.It will be worth it...

[Village]

Its not the expected weather, they cant predict the weather.

Its a response to past weather.

[cerneman]

Wildlife is proactive and respond to there enviroment, Birds migrate early if conditions turn severe early.

[Crepuscular Ray]

Wildlife is proactive and respond to there enviroment, Birds migrate early if conditions turn severe early.

Yes, if the conditions turn severe. I think studies have been done to see how good they are at spotting short-term weather patterns - that is, for example - if they've got to migrate over water from Norway to eastern Britain and therefore would not be best advised to set off into the teeth of a howling southwesterly - but I don't know if there were any definite conclusions.

[knocker]

So in short, birds cant predict the weather, they just respond to past weather.

How exactly do you respond to past weather if you have never experiendence it,

[Crepuscular Ray]

You could as well ask how birds know to head north in autumn in southern Africa to get to Britain in spring or south after they've bred in the northern summer. The nearest explanation anyone has is "instinct". It's an unsatisfactory explanation, certainly, but presumably also explains short-term weather-related movements. Why do females of some species of sharks migrate across the width of the Atlantic to breed? I don't know. Anyone?

[Village]

How exactly do you respond to past weather if you have never experiendence it,

"Past weather" means its history, thats what "past" means....therefore its already been experienced.

So I dont understand your question about "have never experiendence it"

Of course one has...its past right!

[Downburst]

The models are just as abstract. They are totally so. There is far more science in a 24 to 48 hour forecast than....well you know what I mean. If you study maths, as you must if you want to really get to the truth, you will understand my joy at the notion of animals being used as a constant. Trust me at the coal face of chaos theory all things are possible. Trust your experience as there is a lot of truth therein. And well done Mr Holland, I met him and his band and had a great time two years ago, a funny man.