Model Output Discussion - 18z - 6th December onward

[Catacol]

Flicking back people are getting hung up on details at 6 days range. Why bother? Details will change tomorrow. Look for the general pattern... and the general pattern is absolutely superb (if you like snow/ice/cold that is...)

[chris55]

GFS at 96 pretty much identical to ECM, more of a northerly element to start things off.

Edited December 6, 2012 by chris55

[HammerJack]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-126.png?18

GFS now has the slider shortwave to the SW of the UK moving SE as opposed to South-

we should look flatter & more like the UKMO & ECM tonight

S

Just read the above posts- its like 2001 on snowatch

What do you mean Steve? Good or bad?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Way more WAA up western side of greenland than 12z, you don't need a degree in meteorolgy to realise that is a very good thing!

even I know that pmsl, yeah better prospects for end of week

[Ian Brown]

It should be OK as the High pressure cells can only connect, then hopefully the European trough can move West and those heights over Western areas can decline.

[PubliusEnigma]

Cold uppers seemed to have edged east a bit. Coldest weather now looks as though Netherlands and Belgium will get a hammering. Winds over the UK by

Tueday are more a northerly. So wintry showers on exposed headlands and Scotlands, very fresh and bright or sunny in most areas, and still frosty at night !

[A.J]

Can we please keep it on topic and dispense with the 'throw away' one liners that add nothing & detract from an otherwise absorbing thread....Ta!

[Alex95]

Heavy snow restricted to NE England and Scotland on Monday and Tuesday on the 18z. I'm glad I live here, but I'm still not keen on the direction this one is taking! The only timeframe which can be modelled with any confidence is early next week, so we certainly don't want that to go the way of the pear. Anything happening late next week is subject to change, and isn't worth getting excited about... yet.

Whoops... Nearly did one of those posts I was moaning about earlier!

Edited December 6, 2012 by Alza

[Geordiesnow]

This thread is frustrating...

In the long run the GFS looks better for pulling in really cold uppers, something the easterly projections have lacked so far.

Love the image!

On a IMBY POV, its slightly frustrating as it removes the easterly element to the Northerly therefore any coastal showers(which would probably be of a wintry nature) will miss me but it may develop into something better in the run. That said, I would take the ECM run any day of the week over this GFS run in the short-medium term.

It does remind us that shortwaves could still scupper things if albeit the cold trend for the first part of next week is unlikely to change.

[TEITS]

Im glad I saved the fax chart a few days ago. Just look how much this has improved and how wrong the UKMO was.

+120 fax 4th Dec for Sunday.

Tonights +72 for Sunday

[PubliusEnigma]

The problem is a small High Pressure trying to build over France as an extension of the High to our NW is starting to shunt the cold and northerlies eastwards.

Granted the cold should stay for a while, but the lack of wind and high pressure will severely limit any convective showers heading inland from any north facing

coasts

[Alex95]

Love the image!

On a IMBY POV, its slightly frustrating as it removes the easterly element to the Northerly therefore any coastal showers(which would probably be of a wintry nature) will miss me but it may develop into something better in the run. That said, I would take the ECM run any day of the week over this GFS run in the short-medium term.

It does remind us that shortwaves could still scupper things if albeit the cold trend for the first part of next week is unlikely to change.

Actually, the NNE modelled on the 18z would be at least as good as the one we had yesterday, except it goes on for longer. I'm sure we would still be getting a good few inches from the 18z.

[January Snowstorm]

The 18z has now removed the Easterly in its entirety

That's 24 hours from Armageddon to high pressure dry and frosty

Some going even by 90's standards lol

[Wilxy]

The angle of the atlantic looks much better on here, with heights rising more each run towards greenland.

[Catacol]

Bah - there's some dull comments coming out here tonight. If my ensemble charts earlier dont float your boat then here is the 18z GFS image for Thursday that has just come out in terms of uppers. What on earth is there to say about this apart from - yeeha! I said yesterday people would throw their toys out when there were short term downgrades from that almost impossible ECM offering at 12z... Put them back in - the cold is coming.

[Allseasons-Si]

I think the high pressure is better oriented on this run than the 12z and also there is a bigger swaithe of colder uppers NE of BI,looks good to me.

[DanDorsetUK]

Def stalled atlantic nice and frosty nights and cold crisp days for the next week ahead for those who like frost. Signs of the cold shifting back towards the uk but we have lost the east for sure!

[weatherguy]

The 18z has now removed the Easterly in its entirety

That's 24 hours from Armageddon to high pressure dry and frosty

Some going even by 90's standards lol

High pressure? Removed the easterly in its entirety? Are we looking at the same run?

[PubliusEnigma]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-126.png?18

GFS now has the slider shortwave to the SW of the UK moving SE as opposed to South-

we should look flatter & more like the UKMO & ECM tonight

S

Just read the above posts- its like 2001 on snowatch

Where is the SW to the SW on that chart ?

[weather_it_will]

I can see massive easterly potential coming with block to north and south of the LP sliding SE.

[cooling climate]

The change today in the model output in the extended range t144 + could very well be down to

the models rushing in with the transfer of the vortex back over to Siberia dropping the heights

over the Arctic to quickly. In the same way they rush in when there is a signal for HLB's if so

I would soon expect the runs to show much better height retention to the north of the UK around

Iceland, Scandinavia, Svalbard region.

[Geordiesnow]

The problem is a small High Pressure trying to build over France as an extension of the High to our NW is starting to shunt the cold and northerlies eastwards.

Granted the cold should stay for a while, but the lack of wind and high pressure will severely limit any convective showers heading inland from any north facing

coasts

Just to say that is not true as the centre of any high pressure at the moment is projected to be north of the Shetland Isles, you can get convective activity at pressure as high as 1040MB although thicknesses more often than do increase with higher pressure.

What will stop any coastal showers heading inland will be the strength and direction of the flow hence I would prefer the ECM run over this one in the short-medium term as that had a more easterly element to the Northerly. GFS has a more westerly element until around 120 hours when it does slowly change direction.

Its a good run for cold lovers, and it does finally get there, at least for a short while!

[Jonan92]

I don think that the atlantic will show up in this run, big change in US

12z

18z

However, this is FI already

[Ian Brown]

Virtually the same as the 12z at the same juncture.

JS, I wouldn't say the easterly has been removed - surely winds coming from the east is an easterly ! However, unless there is some tightening of the flow I really struggle to see where PPN is coming from with the exception of Eastern coastal areas this side of T144.

[Panayiotis]

Scandi high further south at 159hrs hopefully the low to the south of Greenland will take this track giving us snowy easterly!