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Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

Well the latest meto update makes no bones about it, saying it will turn milder in all areas by next weekend, that shows high confidence considering the backtrack from the 00z runs this morning, it's almost as though they haven't even reacted to the latest developments or just dismissing them. The further outlook is then average/mild zonal but it sounds like they are still on saturdays models rather than the more complex situation now with the battle lines being drawn as I type this, hopefully a backtrack from the ukmetoffice tomorrow.

The metoffice give out statements based on 48hours of previous output rather than just the last few runs. Which when there's a sudden change makes their forcasts not worth reading much into. If were still seeing increasing chances for the cold to hang on longer by tomorrow id expect a change from them then. The BBC forecast seems a fairer statement than what Ian mentioned.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Good afternoon everyone.Not been on here for a few days due to ill health so missed quite a bit of modeling .Looking threw the current output id probably say the atlantic will make inroads but rather a half hearted attempt to start with giving a temp snow event to the northern half of the uk.Teits makes several good points and history proves that sometimes the removal of cold air is a very protracted thing and can throw up many suprises?.People quoting the latest mo outputs ete would do well to remember the some what mislaid forecasts recently.Granted they call it mixing various outputs but the current volatile atmosphere is reaking havoc to all and sundry!!!!The point i would make is the current set up screams 70-s synoptics wise so take any forecast beyond 72 hours with a pinch of salt.

Edited by swfc
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Well the latest meto update makes no bones about it, saying it will turn milder in all areas by next weekend, that shows high confidence considering the backtrack from the 00z runs this morning, it's almost as though they haven't even reacted to the latest developments or just dismissing them. The further outlook is then average/mild zonal but it sounds like they are still on saturdays models rather than the more complex situation now with the battle lines being drawn as I type this, hopefully a backtrack from the ukmetoffice tomorrow.

As the old saying goes one swallow doesn't a summer make, in this instance a few operationals aren't enough to say theres been a big change in the medium term.

The shorter term uncertainty re transitional snow may have a domino effect later but obviously the UKMO expect more energy left behind as the PV moves to Siberia.

We'll just have to see Frosty what the trend is over the coming days.

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

Well the latest meto update makes no bones about it, saying it will turn milder in all areas by next weekend, that shows high confidence considering the backtrack from the 00z runs this morning, it's almost as though they haven't even reacted to the latest developments or just dismissing them. The further outlook is then average/mild zonal but it sounds like they are still on saturdays models rather than the more complex situation now with the battle lines being drawn as I type this, hopefully a backtrack from the ukmetoffice tomorrow.

Are they certain it will stay mild and wet until Xmas. The GFS 18z and todays 6z (just viewed it) clearly has a trend for cold easterlies before Xmas followed by a northerly reload at Xmas.

Edited by snow1975
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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

I think the meto outlook is a very frank and honest one, it also highlights why watching the model runs unfold this week will be as exciting as last week. They do have more data available than us, but how much use it is we can only guess. We can all see the possabilities that could occur, even if temporary towards the end of next week, so can they. We would probably all agree that it looks wet looking at the models over last few days, but also its not going to take alot to suddenly turn it into a transient snow to rain event.

The EC is what they use alot if looking ahead so their forecasts in fi will change with its runs so nothing to worry about there and i expect it to change as EC flips like a fish out of water. Why do i think it will flip about, because this is a very volatile situation and can go from mobile to static very easily in fi. Static could mean exactly as shown in their medium range, or static as in a cold scenario, depending eactly where things are when things get blocked.

This week is shown to get colder to start, but mainly dry, all models agree. Then a breakdown, again all models agree, but agreement on the models only means most likely scenario, and in fi which is around thursday, just small corrections could give very different outcome for what you get, for a time atleast, in your back yard. Im off to the strat thread now as i see this a one main driver and although it does not guarantee blocks forming in the right place or cold for the UK it does give opportunities, which again can help the models change what they show deep in fi now in a few days time. I have a gut feeling that this will be more of a battle and give transient snow event and not a straight run to rain. But i will be honest, its not scientific, from something i see in the charts, it just experience in these breakdowns, they have often changed very late on in both directions in the past. Ec is the stronger model in the 5 day period, but both EC and GFS tail off dramatically in accuracy after day 5 and are pretty much on a par in deep fi (around 50%)

Edited by pyrotech
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Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

ian f's comments in the sw thread r interesting regarding the upcoming coldsnap his latest update from the met.

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

The meto always err on the side of caution and sit on the fence, so I would not worry too much about what they say - more reactive than proactive.

The last few model runs are certainly showing growing potential in the mid-term for a switch to a colder scenario with increasing amounts of precipitation. This could easily all change again and reflect what the meto are saying, the 12z will be interesting, hopefully see further consistency and some agreement between the top three models.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Are they certain it will stay mild and wet until Xmas. The GFS 18z and todays 6z (just viewed it) clearly has a trend for cold easterlies before Xmas followed by a northerly reload at Xmas.

No the longer term is full of uncertainty but actually so is the shorter term, i'm encouraged by the new developments as it gives all coldies new hope for the week ahead to become full of nice surprises with short range upgrades as more undercut develops, it has happened before so why not this time with such a huge cold block on our doorstep.

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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

Are we on the brink of a great model backtrack??

ECM looks decent, GFS 6z has trended towards a sol that could deliver cold/snowy breakdown.

With models so unreliable at just T96hrs, this really is an amazing time.

Edited by Matty M
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Posted
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent
  • Location: Canterbury, Kent

the meto forecast nearly changes as much as the models at the moment.

but tbh no matter how much computing power these models have, mother nature is far more powerful , and she will do as she pleases.

pleasent reading on here today, not just because of the nicer looking runs, but also because the rants had stopped :)

bit off topic sorry mods.

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Having viewed the last few sets of GFS runs, it strikes me that it could go either way really. The prospect of an easterly really hangs on weather or no we get an undercutting low. The 18Z and 06Z both feature this with a mean little sucker crossing the channel then undercutting. This is one feature I will be keeping an eye out for.

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Posted
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs
  • Location: Near Keele, North Staffs

the meto forecast nearly changes as much as the models at the moment.

but tbh no matter how much computing power these models have, mother nature is far more powerful , and she will do as she pleases.

pleasent reading on here today, not just because of the nicer looking runs, but also because the rants had stopped smile.png

bit off topic sorry mods.

I think there can be high confidence in a return of the Atlantic by next weekend, the timing and the transition are open to question though.

The METO outlooks can chop and change in the same way as the models do.

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

The meto always err on the side of caution and sit on the fence, so I would not worry too much about what they say - more reactive than proactive.

The last few model runs are certainly showing growing potential in the mid-term for a switch to a colder scenario with increasing amounts of precipitation. This could easily all change again and reflect what the meto are saying, the 12z will be interesting, hopefully see further consistency and some agreement between the top three models.

I do think saying they are reactive rather than proactive is abit unfair, but i think if we looked in an unbiased way the models have shown the outlook, remembering they give more credability to EC than GFS in fi, that we would if pushed have to give a similar outlook. Its what is shown as most likely on the previous runs by EC. However a few runs by the EC and others in Fi trending cold, also with a different senior forecaster on the day (maybe) that a different outlook may be given. They can not have a biased in any weather to make what is often at best a far from accurate medium range forecast. Its what the forecaster would have seen in the EC previous runs and its what its hinted to us too, however i am hopeful that changes are a foot and that will reflect later in the week on their forecasts, if not the sledge will need to be put back up in the actic until 2013, i don't want to go back to the actic !!!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Are we on the brink of a great model backtrack??

ECM looks decent, GFS 6z has trended towards a sol that could deliver cold/snowy breakdown.

With models so unreliable at just T96hrs, this really is an amazing time.

Comparing today's ECM 00z chart for friday with yesterday's highlights the changes in the models

overnight,with stronger blocking to the north and the jet being diverted South/South-East.

yesterday.. today..

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

I do think saying they are reactive rather than proactive is abit unfair, but i think if we looked in an unbiased way the models have shown the outlook, remembering they give more credability to EC than GFS in fi, that we would if pushed have to give a similar outlook. Its what is shown as most likely on the previous runs by EC. However a few runs by the EC and others in Fi trending cold, also with a different senior forecaster on the day (maybe) that a different outlook may be given. They can not have a biased in any weather to make what is often at best a far from accurate medium range forecast. Its what the forecaster would have seen in the EC previous runs and its what its hinted to us too, however i am hopeful that changes are a foot and that will reflect later in the week on their forecasts, if not the sledge will need to be put back up in the actic until 2013, i don't want to go back to the actic !!!

You only need to look on the Strat thread to get an idea if that sledge will need to be put away for another year.

Onto the models, this backtrack is quite spectacular to see, however imo there is no doubt of a full on return to the atlantic its the transitionary period getting there that is interesting. Also as the GFS has been picking up on lately, and backed up by some senior members in here i think the chances of a retrogression and northerly around xmas increasing, just one to watch though. It would kill me to have a third chase and let down!

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Posted
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms and extremes
  • Location: LEVEN, Fife

AO Still tanking negative

ao.mrf.gif

Interesting.

Do you think the recent SSW will have an effect soon? The MetO mentined it last week. Also. when is the tropical wave due, they come every 6 weeks according to GP? He mentioned the wave could connect the -AO and -NAO into an hemispheric event!?

Edited by snow1975
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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

There's only one solution IMO: the one that happens...Unfortunately for us, no computer model is capable of finding it, may never be able to find it?

What's more, the weather (outwith the quantum-scale, of course) is not digital...

whats your solution

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I notice the UKMO update suggests average/mild (south, at times) and wet right up to Christmas. To do a sudden U-Turn like that I suspect it is of lower probability for anything cold in the medium term. So despite the odd good run today for cold, really nothing has changed.

As I thought the OP is a cold outlier:

http://modeles.meteo...ndres&runpara=0

Still lots of spread, so wriggle room for a sea change, but little confidence.

Just want to say that im not convinced that Met O forecast is likely to be right and I have to be honest that update surprised me a little. Having said this I was surprised the Met O were still predicting widespread heavy snow showers when it was clear that wouldn't be the case.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I think there can be high confidence in a return of the Atlantic by next weekend, the timing and the transition are open to question though.

Compared to what the models were showing yesterday, that's an upgrade in itself since it showed milder everywhere by thursday, if we have further upgrades the cold block may win. I currently don't see that there can be high confidence in any solution beyond midweek!

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Posted
  • Location: CARDIFF
  • Location: CARDIFF

You only need to look on the Strat thread to get an idea if that sledge will need to be put away for another year.

Onto the models, this backtrack is quite spectacular to see, however imo there is no doubt of a full on return to the atlantic its the transitionary period getting there that is interesting. Also as the GFS has been picking up on lately, and backed up by some senior members in here i think the chances of a retrogression and northerly around xmas increasing, just one to watch though. It would kill me to have a third chase and let down!

I did not say for another year, i looked at strat thread, i said till 2013 which is 23 days away not 12 months

Just to show im not a pessimist not having a dig

Edited by pyrotech
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

whats your solution

I don't have one. So I'll leave leave it up to the weather...

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Also interesting the NCEP Blocking forecasts for days 5 through 14 still suggest blocks to our NE/NW.......caveats are they cannot show shorterm energy/jet profiles sending energy through at 48/72 hours but encouraging all the same. Still plenty to play for in ther run up to Xmas in my eyes especially with models backtracking and sliding the low late this week further SE rather than East

forecast_2_nh.gif

forecast_3_nh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Compared to what the models were showing yesterday, that's an upgrade in itself since it showed milder everywhere by thursday, if we have further upgrades the cold block may win. I currently don't see that there can be high confidence in any solution beyond midweek!

Indeed, I said last night, I think the UK could be right in the middle of a mega battleground between the cold to our East and the Atlantic to our west. I don't see any prolonged mild periods in the short to mid term. A mix of cold and cool n wet is most likely.

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Posted
  • Location: OSLO, Norway
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Storms, Heat, Thunderstorms
  • Location: OSLO, Norway

I did not say for another year, i looked at strat thread, i said till 2013 which is 23 days away not 12 months

Just to show im not a pessimist not having a dig

Sorry that was my bad, immediatly presumed you meant winter of 2013/14 mega_shok.gif

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