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Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

There's a right battle setting up for the latter half of the week but will the west win or the east win

gfsnh-0-54.png?12

gfsnh-1-60.png?12

The weak ridge of high pressure gets squeezed out but to what the low to the the west or the cold of the east

gfsnh-0-60.png?12

Edited by Gavin.
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

The 12Z is even closer matched for Monday.

h500slp.png

Yes the ridge is closer to Greenland but it doesn't show the big the low to the east bringing in biting strong northerly winds. Edited by panayiotis
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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted

The 12Z ens will be interesting to see if they keep the scatter or lean towards a rebuilding of the block and an Easterly for the 3rd week of December. All speculation at this stage, mind.

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)

as others have suggested there may be a constant feed of energy from the vortex shifting places fuelling this setup.

I'm happy to be contradicted, but I dont recall anyone saying that. Quite the opposite. The vortex is going to transfer to Siberia. The energy feed you refer to here will be cut off 48 - 72 hours after the process starts.

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted (edited)

The main Low has migrated further south with a SE-NW tilt at t.63

h500slp.png

T.72 already an upgrade! A HP cell over france is modifying the LP air so that we are getting the mix of the two air systems. Cue some snow dumps???

h850t850eu.png

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z - the block is noticeably stronger at T72 and the low pressure being pushed south. I wonder... is the trend of 06z going to continue?

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Greenland ridge is much stronger I wonder if its enough to send it far enough south?

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted

GFS 12z - the block is noticeably stronger at T72 and the low pressure being pushed south. I wonder... is the trend of 06z going to continue?

It would be the trend of the 18/00/06z

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

The 12z is still poor from a imby perspective as it could be 10c in my back yard on Wednesday

However it is moving in the right direction with the block to the north more pronounced.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted (edited)

Could be some snow across the central belt of Scotland around tea time on Wednesday..........

gfs-2-78.png?12

The low seems to be staying further west on this run so far

gfsnh-0-84.png?12

Further snow just in time for the morning rush hour in Scotland and parts of Northern England

gfs-2-90.png?12

Northern Blocking trying to build again?

gfsnh-0-90.png?12

Edited by Gavin.
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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted (edited)

pfffft grateful for being made to feel a fooolgood.gif

Ok can you just leave it now, i said i was sorry and you didnt have to come back with a comment like this, all i know is that this a model discussion thread and therefore we should discuss the models..

High seems to have upgraded look at it now!

post-17320-0-69539100-1355068661_thumb.p

Edited by panayiotis
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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted (edited)

Just amazing how difficult it is on a Sunday to make a forecast for Wednesday/Thursday.

Mild and 10c or subzero and frosty with potential snow.

Nothing resolved on this 12z. We have a trend and on to the next run!

Edited by Matty M
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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

Yep i've seen enough of the 12z. The good news is the SWward shift of the pattern generally, as well as a slightly better angle of attack from the LP (albeit in terms of an initial snow-rain event only a slight improvement upon the 6z), but long may this shift continue

Should we get that continuing for the next 24-48hrs, then we could look more optimistically at the situation towards the end of the week

SK

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Catacol Maestro

Catacol

Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
Posted

T90 and the difference in the modelling of the residual vortex driving the atlantic is very different. Weaker... much further south. Heights to the north are stronger.

We arent going to be a belting easterly, but I wonder whether GP's dropped-in comment about Cheltenham and also about a stagnant atlantic running out of gas while a weakish block develops is going to be proved right. Amazingly it is only December 9th. Does anyone else feel like we've been watching this winter already for about a month at least? 9 days in... This week is a long way from finished yet. Watch the battleground be shifted west as the week progresses... and the heights remain in place.

Remember that cpc anomaly guidance? Ensemble products?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Are greeny ridge is still their!

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Gavin Hannah Community Regular

Gavin Hannah

Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe
Posted

Yep i've seen enough of the 12z. The good news is the SWward shift of the pattern generally, as well as a slightly better angle of attack from the LP (albeit in terms of an initial snow-rain event only a slight improvement upon the 6z), but long may this shift continue

Should we get that continuing for the next 24-48hrs, then we could look more optimistically at the situation towards the end of the week

SK

The center of the Low pressure system has moved south by a good few hundred miles. Another shift like that on the 18Z and the outcome for midweek is going to be very interesting indeed.

h500slp.png

h500slp.png

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Panayiotis Seasoned

Panayiotis

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
Posted

At 96hrs the low far out to our west is taking a more southerly track as the high of Greenland has strengthened quite a lot compared to the 06z! If we still see upgrades from the 18z and 00z, this week may look much more interesting than originally thought!

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

Is that two tropic lows appearing not very good at this so bare with me.

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Snowmad79 Aficionado

Snowmad79

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

Yes the core of the Atlantic LP is further SW on this run at T90 & T96 compared with the previous run. Is it going to stall or send energy SE ? More force will be exerted on the Jet stream so who knows where this will go.

I don't think we'll be any clearer on the solution from the 12th December, than we were a day or so ago.

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snowking Accomplished

snowking

Posted
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
  • Location: St Albans, 95m asl
Posted

The center of the Low pressure system has moved south by a good few hundred miles. Another shift like that on the 18Z and the outcome for midweek is going to be very interesting indeed.

h500slp.png

h500slp.png

Agreed

It still become a potential mess with some shortwave activity on the front of the LP system, but as we know all too well that is unlikely to be resolved until nearer the time

Good snowfall event this for Scotland/Far N England....with the caveat that theres the potential further southerly correction

SK

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If Wishes made Weather Explorer

If Wishes made Weather

Posted
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
  • Location: Bishop's Stortford in England and Klingenmünster in Germany
Posted

An interesting run up to 96z. The low coming out of Canada is on more of a SW track, and there is a far deeper area of cold uppers stretching out of Scandi over to Iceland and beyond. This may well bode for a snowier breakdown than shown on the 12z yesterday where the Atlantic piled into the centre of the UK on a very west to east track

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