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Model Output Discussion - 8th December Onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and hot, sunny summers!
  • Location: Liverpool - 23m ASL

That looks like todays or tomorrows chart. Likely GFS.

Yeah, looks like the +24 of the GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good evening. Here is the evening look at the 00zs from the 12z output of GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Sunday December 9th 2012.

All models show High pressure building down over the UK from the North over the coming 72 hours. The weather will become cold and frosty with freezing fog in places overnight and wintry showers near to Eastern coasts.

GFS then shows from midweek a change to milder and unsettled conditions with periods of rain and showers preceded by a spell of snow for many Northern areas. A period of quite stormy weather will continue to affect the UK over the end of the week and the weekend with spells of heavy rain and thundery showers in a near gale WSW wind. By the start of next week things quieten down somewhat as Low pressure weakens to the NW and High pressure edges closer in towards the South with mild conditions likely here for a time. This quickly gives way to further wet and windy weather as Low pressure collapses SE into NW Europe with colder conditions returning slowly South over the UK with drier and more settled conditions. Further Low pressure then dives down across the UK from the NW to return rain and wind for all in near normal temperatures to end FI.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show a disappointing look for those after cold weather as after the next few cold days the weather becomes Low pressure dominated from the Atlantic with rain and strong winds in copious measure for the rest of the run. 850's average very near to the long term average with just a handful of members offering the usual recipe of rather colder options in FI.

The Jet Stream currently running SE over the UK currently, weakens in two or three days time as a new arm of the Jet steams across the Atlantic at around 50 deg N latitude on a direct West to East course across France and eventually further East into Europe.

UKMO shows the breakdown on Thursday as winds from the South become strong with heavy rain sweeping North and East over Britain with a spell of snow briefly in the North. Following the rain temperatures will return to normal values with sunshine and squally showers the nature of the weather as we start the weekend.

ECM tonight shows the breakdown too towards the end of the week with an intense depression sitting near the Irish Sea circa 965mbs on Friday with heavy driving rain with a brief spell of snow for the North arriving by Friday morning. The rest of the run sees the unsettled pattern continue with Low pressure out to the NW with relatively mild SW winds and rain or showers continuing unabated.

In Summary a pattern change will develop in the second half of this week. After several cold and frosty days all models show Low pressure slamming in from the West by the end of the working week bringing strong winds and heavy rain and just the fleeting spell of snow for some Northern areas briefly at the meeting point of the air masses. Thereafter, the unsettled weather persists with Low pressure close by and spells of rain or showers likely for all in temeperatures close to normal.

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Posted
  • Location: S East Wales
  • Location: S East Wales

What Model is this from does anyone know? It's on the Daily Mail article but I can't tell which model its of.

article-2245382-166CC265000005DC-940_634x440.jpg

Temperatures will plunge as low as -15C, bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow, as the freezing 7,000-mile wide 'Beast From The East' sweeps the UK across Monday. The purple area in the top right of this graphic shows it looming in the east. The extreme cold is set to bring travel chaos to the nation and the Met Office says Wednesday will bring sub-zero temperatures across the whole of the UK. rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex
  • Location: Tilgate, West Sussex

What years and years of experience has taught me watching the models with big blocks like the Russian one is that it could get interesting once the energy from the North Atlantic recedes. That block is just waiting to pounce and when it does, it will do it quickly!

I believe that the high is only going to get bigger as we head deeper into winter. I really wouldn't be surprised to be experiencing an easterly/north easterly within the next 2 or 3 weeks.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl

What Model is this from does anyone know? It's on the Daily Mail article but I can't tell which model its of.

article-2245382-166CC265000005DC-940_634x440.jpg

the sun newspaper online has a almost identical one and that says it is from the ecm

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Temperatures will plunge as low as -15C, bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow, as the freezing 7,000-mile wide 'Beast From The East' sweeps the UK across Monday. The purple area in the top right of this graphic shows it looming in the east. The extreme cold is set to bring travel chaos to the nation and the Met Office says Wednesday will bring sub-zero temperatures across the whole of the UK. rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

Hmmm.... Daily Express by any chance???? They were quoted as printing temps of -30 inc windchill when the models were showing the Beasterly a few days ago lol. As regards that purple blob.. it does look familiar..... lol. rofl.gifrofl.gif

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Temperatures will plunge as low as -15C, bringing freezing rain, sleet and snow, as the freezing 7,000-mile wide 'Beast From The East' sweeps the UK across Monday. The purple area in the top right of this graphic shows it looming in the east. The extreme cold is set to bring travel chaos to the nation and the Met Office says Wednesday will bring sub-zero temperatures across the whole of the UK. rofl.gifrofl.gifrofl.gif

if you ever decide to become prime minister, you would get my vote.drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom, NW Kent 92m asl(310ft)

Looking forward to GFS tonight out of curiousity but dont think it will tell us anything new to potential breakdown come Thurs/Fri.Been such a rollercoaster since last Thursday with so many different permatations,i don't think you can call it until probably Tuesday night.I still favour milder air will win(part in the South) eventually,i just hope we don't get torrential rain for SW which is the last thing we all want.I feel a heart ruling head situation for Cold lovers(myself included) but deep down i think Atlantic will win the daycome this Saturday 15th December.Hope i am wrong though.

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Uh oh... there has been a change in the cpc anomaly charts today. These are, admittedly, not subject to human input over the weekend and we cant know just how much human input went into them on Friday when they were different, but they show low pressure anchored to our west and the high belt further north than it was. Result is possible cold still for the north, but average for the south... maybe a bit below.

Will be very interesting to see them again tomorrow to see what human input may do to them. This will give us an idea of how the experts at cpc are viewing their raw data.

Here is the raw data for the 8 - 14 day range:

814day.03.gif

Edited by Catacol_Highlander
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Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

ECM postage stamps show we still have hope :D

(at t96)

A number of runs put the low into north France leaving much of UK still in easterlies.

~30% for this scenario ~50% strong southwesterlies

also another thing to note is the potential for an intense cyclone around T96hrs.

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Posted
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters and cool, wet summers.
  • Location: Newcastle upon Tyne

Let's get back to some model-discussion?

The models have really teased us recently.

Rather like winning a football game 1-0 with 90 minutes almost up, only for the other side to score twice in the 90th minute to deny Spurs coldies the chance of victory.

Sorry, couldn't resist blum.gif

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Uh oh... there has been a massive change in the cpc anomaly charts today. These are, admittedly, not subject to human input over the weekend and we cant know just how much human input went into them on Friday when they were very different indeed, but they show low pressure anchored to our west, the high pressure belt too far north to influence us, and therefore a mild and wet setup.

Will be very interesting to see them again tomorrow to see what human input may do to them. This will give us an idea of how the experts at cpc are viewing their raw data.

Here is the raw data for the 8 - 14 day range:

814day.03.gif

Hmm, would give the northern half of the UK an easterly flow, westerly for the South. But as they're for 8 days out, will be interesting to see how much they're modified. Call it a gut feeling, but I do sense a north/south split with a Low undercutter. The devil is in the detail....

Edited by IBringTheHammer
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Hmmm.... Daily Express by any chance???? They were quoted as printing temps of -30 inc windchill when the models were showing the Beasterly a few days ago lol. As regards that purple blob.. it does look familiar..... lol. rofl.gifrofl.gif

Now that is the upgrade i'm looking for on the 00zbiggrin.png

post-4783-0-42550300-1355085126_thumb.jp

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Posted
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich
  • Weather Preferences: April!
  • Location: Kesgrave, just East of Ipswich

Keep seeing lots of references to zonality on here tonight, but I am not seeing that myself. To me, zonality is lows barreling through the UK into Scandinavia, whilst the Azores high sits to the S and the PV is attached to Greenland. The Russian block is stopping that happening and all the recent model dramas just prove that they struggle with these blocking situations.

Could easily see something very interesting cropping up in the runs this week; this is not a "normal" set up by any means.....

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looking forward to GFS tonight out of curiousity but dont think it will tell us anything new to potential breakdown come Thurs/Fri.Been such a rollercoaster since last Thursday with so many different permatations,i don't think you can call it until probably Tuesday night.I still favour milder air will win(part in the South) eventually,i just hope we don't get torrential rain for SW which is the last thing we all want.I feel a heart ruling head situation for Cold lovers(myself included) but deep down i think Atlantic will win the daycome this Saturday 15th December.Hope i am wrong though.

The models have been fairly consistent that the milder from the SW will win out across most areas by the weekend, pressure/heights are not high enough not to hold it back and the strong jet streak charging across the Atlantic later this week from New Foundland will provide the additional impetus for this removal of cold air.

IMO it's just a question of how quickly the cold air will be removed later this week. The flow will be backed to a colder flow from the SE longer across the north with a more -ve angle of approach of the fronts up here, so here we will most likely see the risk of snow preceding the eventual transition to rain. GFS more bullish on the 12z than ECM in breaking down the cold from the SW, so we may see a slower breakdown from subsequent GFS runs, but it's really delaying the inevitable IMHO.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)

Consistency from the later ECMWF output but with a large westwards step

12z Yesterday:

ECH1-240.GIF?09-0

And today:

ECH1-216.GIF?09-0

And even in the earlier timeframe:

Yesterday:

ECH1-120.GIF?09-0

Today:

ECH1-96.GIF?09-0

Even compared to two days ago:

ECH1-144.GIF?09-0

So todays trend is very much a positive one....whether that continues into the 0z's well nobody can say

SK

Wanting to catch up I have been reading through the posts regarding ecm. Yours sums it up saves me having to read any more. :) imo theres not gonna be a massive step towards cold but gradual steps each run. Interesting week ahead imo

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The 72hrs fax chart shows the fine lines between at least a snow event for a few more people and one probably reserved for just northern areas more especially to higher ground.

post-1206-0-41098000-1355085697_thumb.gi

You can see that shortwave approaching Scotland which phases with the incoming Atlantic low earlier than the 00hrs run. Also the earlier 84hrs chart had the low pressure centre further west.

As Nick F mentioned earlier though this is delaying the inevitable unless there is a monumental turnaround.

It's been a strange week so I wouldn't want to completely say its impossible!

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Signal for potential significant cyclone near T168hrs too anywhere from Galicia to Shetlands.

Here is the 108hr stamps, some showing a snowy incursion.

mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!108!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2012120912!!chart.gif

Quite a few sliders in there, 20 runs slide the Low many with the -6 isotherm towards the southern half of the UK.

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