Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[AWD]

I would just like to say, as my first ever post on here, that the weather still looks far from boring over the next few weeks. Potentially some quite stormy weather from next weekend, some vigorous shower activity behind the frontal bands, and if you believe the GFS 18Z, possibly cold again from the 23rd. Far from days of warm sector drizzle or anticyclonic gloomy.

Welcome Barry, glad to have you join us southerner's.

I take it your referring to the 12z GFS as the 18z is only just trickling out now.

[mrsmall]

This could be wet and wild fingers crossed this gets downgraded....

[mrsmall]

Just seen an ad on the telly for this http://www.channel4.com/programmes/is-our-weather-getting-worse hope its got some scientific analysis in it and it isn't a Daily Mail hype type.

Link no worky C4 tues 8 pm - is our weather getting wetter.

Edited December 9, 2012 by mrsmall

[Zephyr]

This could be wet and wild fingers crossed this gets downgraded....

Really hope this downgrades it could be a disaster for already flooded areas!

[Stoxs]

real worring times for anyone in a high risk area, but one result for me would be the sea side about 20miles nearer!!

sorry no offence.

Wont be the first real major storm in december would it, been a few over the years. As others have said it will put some real pressure on the ground water exits if we get 2 or 3 days of rain now.

Lets hope it down grades or even better heads off through france !!! this will leave us in cold easterly winds and some S***.

A big straw clutch there not likely .

I think we will see a milder few days but as i said yesterday it could well be a tempory blip. the russian high pressure reall wil eat up most things fired at it ,

Best to keep watching the models and listening to the lads n lasses who know thier stufff.

[Nights King]

This could be wet and wild fingers crossed this gets downgraded....

It's charts like that that make me wonder why peope decide to buy a house in the first place beside the scenic river or flood plane below sea level...

On a positive note... thank god I won't need to use a stand pipe in the near future...

Edited December 9, 2012 by mullender83

[Barry Reynolds]

Welcome Barry, glad to have you join us southerner's.

I take it your referring to the 12z GFS as the 18z is only just trickling out now.

Good point. I'll take a look at the 18z now then. And thank you for the welcome!

[john w]

Id say the models are pretty much nailed on an atlantic breakdown, ones only got to view the ensembles to see that. Whether there is any snow entrained within the leading edge or not is the only real question. IMO the models did a major u turn last week but that was at t+8 or so....we are now at t+4 and for them to about turn again i would be very surprised. The model thread has been chasing deep cold for some time but it never arrives. This morning for me is.a perfect winter morning. Not a cloud in sight, slight frost, sunny, amazing sunrise over the thames bridge on the way in to staines this morning.

[gottolovethisweather]

It's charts like that that make me wonder why peope decide to buy a house in the first place beside the scenic river or flood plane below sea level...

On a positive note... thank god I won't need to use a stand pipe in the near future...

Indeed mullender and until the government changes planning laws to reflect this, people will continue to suffer. In actual fact, I believe the rules are under review but the issues that our current climate brings with it are only making things worse.

Best get back out of the unattended ditches and waterlogged farmland chaos onto a proper weather discussion from now on.

Dare I look to see what the 6z is trudging towards our shores.

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[john w]

Ha as a planner who worked at the environment agency i can only but agree with the above. However every hill is in an aonb, national park, aglv or otherwise....floodplain very rarely has any other designation unless it somehow ends up in the greenbelt. Its a problem BUT all those other desivnations are sacred cows.

Id say flooding os weather related and discussions around flooding implications are on topic....i wont review the 6z at work....post later peeps but i expect it to show more of the same

[gottolovethisweather]

Ha as a planner who worked at the environment agency i can only but agree with the above. However every hill is in an aonb, national park, aglv or otherwise....floodplain very rarely has any other designation unless it somehow ends up in the greenbelt. Its a problem BUT all those other desivnations are sacred cows.

Id say flooding os weather related and discussions around flooding implications are on topic....i wont review the 6z at work....post later peeps but i expect it to show more of the same

Yes it is on topic relatively speaking, hence why I felt compelled to reply because if this week's worse fears came about, several hundreds if not thousands of folk will be having a christmas from hell.

It is good to hear your viewpoint on such matters John. Why I wonder, aren't floodplains under AONB etc. I cannot imagine them ever building on Britford Water meadows near Salisbury, then again us humans are largely ignorant of the planets needs and money rules.

I'll post an update regarding the latest model output, but the later runs usually provide something more reliable.

[AWD]

Sunny but chilly start to the day today. Make the most of this dry & cold weather as its looking likely that both of them will be going for a while come weeks end.

[AWD]

From Ian:

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re heavy rain & strong winds into Fri: 10-30mm rain likely widely; 50mm poss uplands; gales/severe gales

[gottolovethisweather]

From Ian:

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re heavy rain & strong winds into Fri: 10-30mm rain likely widely; 50mm poss uplands; gales/severe gales

Thanks for the update AWD, sounds like bad news. I hope the authorities are upping the ante in anticipation and fear of the worse.

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Nights King]

Lovely cold and frosty today, temperature seems to have maxed out at 2c with an all day ground frost.

Real shame the breakdown is a washout without even some transitional snow to cheer us up before the floods.

[gottolovethisweather]

Lovely cold and frosty today, temperature seems to have maxed out at 2c with an all day ground frost.

Real shame the breakdown could be a washout without even some transitional snow to cheer us up before the floods.

changed to reflect the ever-changing output. Nothing is certain but then again I suspect its a pointless alteration.

[Katiewombat]

Hi guys and girls I am back :-) got sucked in again. Already seen snow twice. Looking forward to catching up.

Katie

[Nights King]

changed to reflect the ever-changing output. Nothing is certain but then again I suspect its a pointless alteration.

You been on the beer already gtow?!

We shall see however I think the warmer air is going to move in ahead of any fronts giving us rain all the way.

I just hope we get a turn around in time for a white christmas!

[Dorsetbred]

You been on the beer already gtow?!

I just hope we get a turn around in time for a white christmas!

I'm neither crossing fingers/toes or holding my breath, as the word "White" seems most unlikely, only the bookies are smiling now..

[latitude]

Well it seems the cold snap is something not even worth mentioning now with regards to the amount of rain that is forecast. Rain that most of us in SW dont really want.

[gottolovethisweather]

I'm neither crossing fingers/toes or holding my breath, as the word "White" seems most unlikely, only the bookies are smiling now..

As they are every year and not just at Xmas.

[gottolovethisweather]

Well it seems the cold snap is something not even worth mentioning now with regards to the amount of rain that is forecast. Rain that most of us in SW dont really want.

You just did.

Just remember that the models aren't infallible and neither are us model watchers.

Doesn't look too rosy even to my eyes and most concern now has to be with that blessed incoming rain.

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Some potentially dangerous driving conditions during tomorrow mornings commute;

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/12/10/basis06/ukuk/visi/12121109_2_1006.gif

Visibility down to less than 50m around the Bristol/Bath/Gloucester/Swindon areas.

[dancing daisy]

Oh great, more rain!

What's the betting on a hose pipe ban next summer though?

[Nights King]

Oh great, more rain!

What's the betting on a hose pipe ban next summer though?

Sorry daisy but didn't you hear... This is the wrong kind of rain! The water companys are not happy unless we turn the whole of the south west into one large resevoir!