Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[latitude]

You just did.

Just remember that the models aren't infallible and neither are us model watchers.

Doesn't look too rosy even to my eyes and most concern now has to be with that blessed incoming rain.

Haha. Very good.

A couple of weeks of dry frosty weather would of been better than a soaking again!

[gottolovethisweather]

Why it all went wrong? Assuming it does.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/12/10/how-the-pest-from-the-west-will-beat-the-beast-from-the-east/

[katemart]

Met Office warning of *possible* wintry showers for inland areas of the South-East tonight:

"This evening scattered occasionally wintry and perhaps heavy showers across eastern areas, although predominantly across Kent and possibly East Sussex."

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

That's good enough for me to be lamppost watching. Sorry in advance if you see me on the Other Thread!

[Andy Bown]

I tink today will end up being the best day of the week as freezing fog/low cloudlook likely from tomorrow.

If we get freezing fog I hope it lasts long enough to create stunning rime.

Oh great, more rain!

What's the betting on a hose pipe ban next summer though?

That would be fine as it would mean plenty of dry weather from January!

[AWD]

Yellow advisory out for rain across many parts of SW England for the end of the week.

http://t.co/6clqkfM1

Edited December 10, 2012 by AWD

[AWD]

I know the GFS can overlook depressions, but normally way in FI & not at T96;

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=96&mode=0&carte=1

Only 4 days away, better batten down the hatches. Eeeeek!

[katemart]

Temp here in Southampton has dropped by 2C in one hour - now 2.9C. DP -2C and falling, humidity 70% and rising. PPN currently tracking SSW from the Wash evaporating by the time it gets to the North Downs :-(

[Nights King]

-0.3c already its going to be a chilly night!

[Wilxy]

-0.3c already its going to be a chilly night!

-0.5 here

[Nights King]

-0.5 here

That is in whitchurch bristol so not sure about home yet

[Wilxy]

That is in whitchurch bristol so not sure about home yet

Probs alot colder back at your home, -0.8c now dropping fast

[Nights King]

Probs alot colder back at your home, -0.8c now dropping fast

That is a fast drop it will probably level off around mid evening and then just creep down.

[AWD]

Very brief off course, but the GFS offers a quick snowfall event before turning back to rain;

[Wilxy]

That is a fast drop it will probably level off around mid evening and then just creep down.

-1.0 now yeah it usally does that here, i live quite rural here so it does usally get a bit colder here than other places around me.

[gottolovethisweather]

Very brief off course, but the GFS offers a quick snowfall event before turning back to rain;

and as I stated in the SE & EA regional, the uppers don't leave much room for anything else it seems.

Oh well, soon be christmas and the models will continue to have their wobbles.

I'm not great with my understanding of the stratosphere but the GFS does appear to show a decent SSW in its later stages.

I think.

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[SilverWolf]

Nice day for me working outside today - not said

that since March.... What I did notice down some of the country lanes around Stroud area today though is the amount of streams running that aren't usually there - really quite worried about a big rain event this Friday, hardly any rain needed for poss dramatic flooding in our bit of the country. Oh well, look forward to the freezing fog tomorrow if it happens. Though not necessarily working in it...

[gottolovethisweather]

Things might not be all they seem to be right now, the radar is pepping up and who knows.

I am not expecting a raging blizzard but the showers are pushing further inland than I expected and they're even south of the M4 North downs corridor.

http://forum.netweat...20#entry2442070

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

and as I stated in the SE & EA regional, the uppers don't leave much room for anything else it seems.

Oh well, soon be christmas and the models will continue to have their wobbles.

I'm not great with my understanding of the stratosphere but the GFS does appear to show a decent SSW in its later stages.

I think.

Yes, aside from something very brief possibly overnight Thursday, it now looks like the Atlantic is the form horse to take us up to Christmas.

Plenty of rain likely has fronts become stagnant to the west of the UK, with persistent high wind speeds likely too. Plenty of weather coming our way, just not the white stuff for the foreseeable.

After Christmas, who knows. I don't, and I doubt anyone else does really at this timeframe so plenty of time for any potential snow yet,

More often than not when it does snow down here its after Christmas rather than before anyway,

[Guest]

hello! havent been here since the last snow madness so thought it was that time to pop by! can't find a London thread, I presume regional has been reaaranged? hope everyone is well, i am looking forward to my annual lamp post watching at some point soon hope fully x

[fergieweather]

Dear all

I'd like to firstly apologise for my rash and ill-considered decision to vacate over the weekend. Unfortunately, matters reached a head in terms of a single post made on the forum juxtaposed with a stressful weekend and I wanted to make wholly clear how Netweather's moderators moved both unhesitantly and very supportively to rectify this. I'm very grateful to them - they have a full-on job managing the forum and I wouldn't wish anyone to think that I have nothing other than praise for them and their collective efforts.

I'll post from now on here on this SW forum and also on the Technical Model forum. To be absolutely clear and avoid any future difficulties, whilst I work for the BBC, my comments herewith - unlike those through my formalised Twitter feed - are made in a private capacity, albeit a tricky hybrid of course, given I (mostly!) represent the scientific thinking of colleagues at Exeter both on-air professionally and indeed here with any posts. So my only request is: don't shoot the messenger!

Thanks for all your friendship on the forum and I'm looking forward to discussing some interesting weather ahead, whatever it's ultimate 'flavour'.

Best wishes

Ian

Edited December 10, 2012 by fergieweather

[Coast]

hello! havent been here since the last snow madness so thought it was that time to pop by! can't find a London thread, I presume regional has been reaaranged? hope everyone is well, i am looking forward to my annual lamp post watching at some point soon hope fully x

Hi there mm, I guess you might be better located over here:

Best wishes

Ian

No worries Ian, you know we really value your insight and input, thank you for sticking with us!

[AWD]

Welcome back Ian. Very pleased to have you back. Look forward to the latest Meto prognosis later on if you have time.

I notice the GFS gives us some brief leading edge snowfall before the unwelcome rainfall on Thursday. Any thoughts on this?

Also, wind speeds look rather troublesome this weekend along with rainfall. An additional hazard compared with the rainfall a couple of weeks ago.

[fergieweather]

Welcome back Ian. Very pleased to have you back. Look forward to the latest Meto prognosis later on if you have time.

I notice the GFS gives us some brief leading edge snowfall before the unwelcome rainfall on Thursday. Any thoughts on this?

Also, wind speeds look rather troublesome this weekend along with rainfall. An additional hazard compared with the rainfall a couple of weeks ago.

Yes, it's tricky on Thursday - much as the GFS prog suggests and indeed supported by UKMO model suite. I think the broad suggestions of patchy rain and (at least) some hill snow invading into this region during the day is probably set about right as a broad menu, but it'll be interesting to see how it shapes-up once into NAE range. Friday, meanwhile, looks decidedly bothersome (morning especially). UKMO-GM suggestive of 50kt gusts fairly widely; to 70kts in exposure, but again we await the NAE take on this nearer the event.

[AWD]

Following on from the 06z NAE, the 12z again reiterates the potential for very low visibility in tomorrow mornings commute;

With Bristol, Bath, Gloucester & Cheltenham likely to be affected. Coupled with a harsh frost & possible ice, it could make for a challenging commute for some.

[fromey]

Dear all

I'd like to firstly apologise for my rash and ill-considered decision to vacate over the weekend. Unfortunately, matters reached a head in terms of a single post made on the forum juxtaposed with a stressful weekend and I wanted to make wholly clear how Netweather's moderators moved both unhesitantly and very supportively to rectify this. I'm very grateful to them - they have a full-on job managing the forum and I wouldn't wish anyone to think that I have nothing other than praise for them and their collective efforts.

I'll post from now on here on this SW forum and also on the Technical Model forum. To be absolutely clear and avoid any future difficulties, whilst I work for the BBC, my comments herewith - unlike those through my formalised Twitter feed - are made in a private capacity, albeit a tricky hybrid of course, given I (mostly!) represent the scientific thinking of colleagues at Exeter both on-air professionally and indeed here with any posts. So my only request is: don't shoot the messenger!

Thanks for all your friendship on the forum and I'm looking forward to discussing some interesting weather ahead, whatever it's ultimate 'flavour'.

Best wishes

Ian

Welcome back Ian, looking forward to your insights and updates from your colleagues at Exeter.

anymore problems and we will send the boys and girls round from the S/W thread

fromey