Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion

[pinkertonsurly]

Brief sleet shower in Winchester started at 17.55 and just finished - big surprise. Temp +2.4/DP 0.0.

And Ian's posts always give me a fascinating insight into MetO thinking. Much appreciated.

[katemart]

Awesome

Brief sleet shower in Winchester started at 17.55 and just finished - big surprise. Temp +2.4/DP 0.0.

And Ian's posts always give me a fascinating insight into MetO thinking. Much appreciated.

Awesome! Thanks pinkertonsurly - I've been watching that blob moving South and hoping it would stay in one piece :-)

Moment slightly ruined by the bloody cat throwing up everywhere - just as I was about to indulge in a little curtain twitching

Edited December 10, 2012 by katemart

[fergieweather]

Following on from the 06z NAE, the 12z again reiterates the potential for very low visibility in tomorrow mornings commute;

With Bristol, Bath, Gloucester & Cheltenham likely to be affected. Coupled with a harsh frost & possible ice, it could make for a challenging commute for some.

The freezing fog issue becomes even more prevalent - and sooner - tomorrow evening, indeed even before dark. Where it prevails all day, maxima may only reach -2 to -1C!!

For tonight, we reckon fog point is circa -2C.

[Erbyskerby]

Welcome back Mr F! Am worried about Friday's rainfall - unusual for our field to be flooded this early in the winter but it is the worst I've ever seen it and we have sand for soil!

[Costa Del Fal]

A lovely day here in west Cornwall today with clear skies and some patchy high cloud and plenty of sunshine. Quite pleasant in the sunshine too with not much of a breeze. Having said that it is pretty cold this evening and has been since the sun set. All in all, a lovely day here in the far South West.

Tomorrow is looking just as pleasant, perhaps a touch colder. Meto going for about 7c here which seems a heatwave when everywhere else looks like 0 to 3c maximum!

Edited December 10, 2012 by Blizzards

[fergieweather]

Hot off press from new modified UKMO-GM - - snow amounts are increased now early Thursday for this region and other parts of southern England. Interesting look about it. Northern limit is around M4 before it dies away. Mostly 200m upwards but UKMO suggest to low-levels around M4 corridor (they supplied a sounding for Swindon to demonstrate this potential).

Edited December 10, 2012 by fergieweather

[egret]

Ian, so glad you reconsidered and quite understand (an indeed respect) your original decision.

It is really important for the likes of me to be able to balance some of the more extreme (but improbable) possibilities with the experienced judgement of professionals such as your self and the more expert amateurs.

Somehow we need to make space for respect even within short one-liners!

[gottolovethisweather]

Hot off press from new modified UKMO-GM - - snow amounts are increased now early Thursday for this region and other parts of southern England. Interesting look about it. Northern limit is around M4 before it dies away.

undercutting low?

Edited December 10, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

The freezing fog issue becomes even more prevalent - and sooner - tomorrow evening, indeed even before dark. Where it prevails all day, maxima may only reach -2 to -1C!!

For tonight, we reckon fog point is circa -2C.

So it does, across a much larger swaythe of Southern England too;

Visibility widely down to below 100m, and below 50m for a fair few places.

[Bristawl Si]

Hot off press from new modified UKMO-GM - - snow amounts are increased now early Thursday for this region and other parts of southern England. Interesting look about it. Northern limit is around M4 before it dies away. Mostly 200m upwards but UKMO suggest to low-levels around M4 corridor (they supplied a sounding for Swindon to demonstrate this potential).

Great to see you back in here Ian - your invaluable insight is always appreciated by the south westerners!

[AWD]

Hot off press from new modified UKMO-GM - - snow amounts are increased now early Thursday for this region and other parts of southern England. Interesting look about it. Northern limit is around M4 before it dies away. Mostly 200m upwards but UKMO suggest to low-levels around M4 corridor (they supplied a sounding for Swindon to demonstrate this potential).

Sounds like a brief covering possible for the Mendips, Salisbury plain and the moors then.

Mullender will be happier tonight.

[fergieweather]

undercutter?

Quite a pronounced SE undercut at and below circa 900hPa on their GM profile for Swindon.... this northernmost limit of wherever the ppn reaches is where WBFL's will still be down to the deck, hence higher snow threat to low levels in this (uncertain) demarcation region (perhaps M4 corridor)

[Mesoscale]

So since this Beasterly Easterly Beast decided it didn't want to grace us with its presence thanks to that evil atlantic low who wants to move to Minneapolis with me then?

May Severe Thunderstorm:

Yesterdays Snow Storm dubbed Snowapaloza or Caesar by the Weather Channel:

EDIT: top temperature there today is -12C in the city with out lying areas as cold as -22C!

Edited December 10, 2012 by Mesoscale

[mrchoosy]

Pleased you staying Ian.

The jet stream roaring in on top of us by the end of the week may enhance what we do receive from up above which we dont want. South Somerset does not need any more rain. People are struggling round here, and the fields are still soaking wet.

[chris55]

Dear all

I'd like to firstly apologise for my rash and ill-considered decision to vacate over the weekend. Unfortunately, matters reached a head in terms of a single post made on the forum juxtaposed with a stressful weekend and I wanted to make wholly clear how Netweather's moderators moved both unhesitantly and very supportively to rectify this. I'm very grateful to them - they have a full-on job managing the forum and I wouldn't wish anyone to think that I have nothing other than praise for them and their collective efforts.

I'll post from now on here on this SW forum and also on the Technical Model forum. To be absolutely clear and avoid any future difficulties, whilst I work for the BBC, my comments herewith - unlike those through my formalised Twitter feed - are made in a private capacity, albeit a tricky hybrid of course, given I (mostly!) represent the scientific thinking of colleagues at Exeter both on-air professionally and indeed here with any posts. So my only request is: don't shoot the messenger!

Thanks for all your friendship on the forum and I'm looking forward to discussing some interesting weather ahead, whatever it's ultimate 'flavour'.

Best wishes

Ian

Nice post Ian, I am really glad your still about. I do rate you as a forecaster. When Richard Angwin left Points West I thought we'd end up with a generic forecast on the show, but with you taking over we get one of the best and most detailed regional forecasts in the country. No dumbing down, and plenty of science thrown in along side the obvious need for a simple "will it rain tomorrow" type presentation. Great job.

[lfcdude]

Quite a pronounced SE undercut at and below circa 900hPa on their GM profile for Swindon.... this northernmost limit of wherever the ppn reaches is where WBFL's will still be down to the deck, hence higher snow threat to low levels in this (uncertain) demarcation region (perhaps M4 corridor)

So To far north for lets say Devizes.... Might have to get on the 49 bus... I want to see some snow lol

[chris55]

As for Thursday GFS definitely bring in the risk for some brief snowfall (Cotswolds look decent on GFS)

[Nights King]

Sounds like a brief covering possible for the Mendips, Salisbury plain and the moors then.

Mullender will be happier tonight.

A brief covering perhaps?

Thanks for staying Ian! Your always welcome in the west country

-2.7c and falling.

Edited December 10, 2012 by mullender83

[legritter]

Thanks ian Furgusson for your input much appreciated , yes thurs could be a big headache currently as synoptics are critical ,but its in these situations that the west country can score , its that wind direction ahead of the front which is quite often very critical here and of course the front not rushing ahead to fast ,but as always 60hrs or so away ,cheers EDIT .BUT AS ALWAYS TIME WILL TELL .

[iowpompeylee]

As for Thursday GFS definitely bring in the risk for some brief snowfall (Cotswolds look decent on GFS)

ummmm not quite sure how to read that map.has the Isle of Wight got a sneeker of a chance....just a smidgen ?...

[chris55]

ummmm not quite sure how to read that map.has the Isle of Wight got a sneeker of a chance....just a smidgen ?...

These GFS charts are not really detailed enough, but to be frank the IOW has very little chance of any snow. Id say the 200m line is where a bit of snow could fall and that's generally on higher ground (but not exclusively so from experience). The IOW is between the 1000 and 1250 freezing lines, so unless your that high up it'll be rain.

But this could change so nothing is certain!!

[A.J]

Quite a pronounced SE undercut at and below circa 900hPa on their GM profile for Swindon.... this northernmost limit of wherever the ppn reaches is where WBFL's will still be down to the deck, hence higher snow threat to low levels in this (uncertain) demarcation region (perhaps M4 corridor)

early days, but here in Lyneham nr Chippenham, that's very encouraging news

[124alex]

Temp : -1.1c and falling dp: -3c

Edited December 10, 2012 by 124alex

[pip22]

Its snowing right now in Melksham, Wiltshire. While I was watching BBC News 24

Edited December 10, 2012 by Fresh_Prince_Of_Leyland

[Sainsbo]

Nice to hear about the Undercut that might see Swindon some snow. Only a few flakes this winter, so I'm willing to take anything!

-2.5C oustide already and falling.

Edited December 10, 2012 by Sainsbo