Winter 2012/13 coldest minima watch

[March Blizzard]

A winter low of just -8.4C...that is depressing.

[hillbilly]

A winter low of just -8.4C...that is depressing.

not 100% on figures but i think the 10 years of 1978 to 1987 all but 2 years reached at least -20 and one of them reached -17

[Derecho]

Im pretty sure Marham in Norfolk recorded a minima of -13C in the January cold spell, it got down to -11C in parts of East Yorkshire on the same night too.

[reef]

Im pretty sure Marham in Norfolk recorded a minima of -13C in the January cold spell, it got down to -11C in parts of East Yorkshire on the same night too.

Indeed, it dropped to -10.6C in Leconfield on the 17th. Even here it reached -8.3C that morning, which was the coldest minimum in January at this location since 1982.

[Evening thunder]

Just had a look back at my records and archive charts.. this just shows how poor this year has been for Minima at home in East Devon, I recorded a lower min off this set up on this day, Than I have recorded this year or since the 11th December!

If anyone doubts me, look at the 27th January 2008 on my website: http://www.harpfordweather.co.uk/jan08.html clear skies overnight and that -2.9C was the lowest min of that mild month too. The lowest so far this year is just -2.4C on the 21st January!

[March Blizzard]

This winter has been remarkably consistent in terms of temperature, with a very little range between maxima and minima.

Bar the odd 10C+ max and -10C min temperatures have, by and large, languished between about -2C and 8C, with many places with an even narrower range.

[LomondSnowstorm]

This winter has been remarkably consistent in terms of temperature, with a very little range between maxima and minima.

Bar the odd 10C+ max and -10C min temperatures have, by and large, languished between about -2C and 8C, with many places with an even narrower range.

Yes, I feel like about 75% of the time since early January we've had temperatures between 0C and 4C here with only two or three decent frosts and a few milder days.

[Harve]

I think a major problem is that the coldest air has kept away from the Scottish Highlands, where the coldest temperatures are generally found. An absolute minimum of -13c in Eastern England for a winter isn't too appalling, but -12c in the Highlands is.

[hillbilly]

I think a major problem is that the coldest air has kept away from the Scottish Highlands, where the coldest temperatures are generally found. An absolute minimum of -13c in Eastern England for a winter isn't too appalling, but -12c in the Highlands is.

very true but southern england can get very low temps but usually rare i'd have to check but am sure -20 has been recorded in london and the english record is only a degree or two behind braemar and altnaharra.-27.2 in scotland compared to -25ish[dont know the exact temp]

[NorthernRab]

very true but southern england can get very low temps but usually rare i'd have to check but am sure -20 has been recorded in london and the english record is only a degree or two behind braemar and altnaharra.-27.2 in scotland compared to -25ish[dont know the exact temp]

Very cold temperatures are generally a lot more common in the Scottish Highlands though, Harve makes a valid point. This winter has been really quite awful for the Highlands, sure relative to other regions we've seen more snowfall than many, but being one of the most north western regions, SErly winds do not really deliver at all for us.

I'd say two things about the small difference between the lowest temperature from the Scottish Highlands and England. Firstly, sub -20'C or indeed sub -15'C or -10'C are considerably more frequent in occurance in the Highlands compared to England, even if the actual extreme minimas aren't too dissimilar. So in that respect, just -11'C or so (I think that's the lowest minima for the Highlands thus far this winter) really is quite unremarkable. Secondly, weather stations just aren't as commonplace throughout the Highlands. As a result, the lowest temperatures go unrecorded. Of course, we'll never actually find the lowest minimum temperature for the Highlands, but the lack of stations around the Badenoch and Strathspey area has lead some to argue that temperatures as low as -30'C go unrecorded (local reports of these temperatures to crop up during the deepest of cold spells).

[damianslaw]

The reason for lack of cold minima this winter has been due to the lack of cleae skies. The colder periods unusually in the main have been cloudy periods. We have seen little high pressure overhead or even ridges until now. Hence there has been too much turbulence in the air despite decent snow cover at times. We have only managed a handful of nights around -3 to

- 6 degrees. The number of nights around 0-1 degrees has been high, often when forecast -2 degrees. What has also been notable is the number of nights below freezing which have produced no Frost, thanks to the very dry air. I like my nights to produce a thick host Frost. The current conditions feel very very continental.

[hillbilly]

Very cold temperatures are generally a lot more common in the Scottish Highlands though, Harve makes a valid point. This winter has been really quite awful for the Highlands, sure relative to other regions we've seen more snowfall than many, but being one of the most north western regions, SErly winds do not really deliver at all for us.

I'd say two things about the small difference between the lowest temperature from the Scottish Highlands and England. Firstly, sub -20'C or indeed sub -15'C or -10'C are considerably more frequent in occurance in the Highlands compared to England, even if the actual extreme minimas aren't too dissimilar. So in that respect, just -11'C or so (I think that's the lowest minima for the Highlands thus far this winter) really is quite unremarkable. Secondly, weather stations just aren't as commonplace throughout the Highlands. As a result, the lowest temperatures go unrecorded. Of course, we'll never actually find the lowest minimum temperature for the Highlands, but the lack of stations around the Badenoch and Strathspey area has lead some to argue that temperatures as low as -30'C go unrecorded (local reports of these temperatures to crop up during the deepest of cold spells).

very true it is very common for scottish highlands to record -20 and rare in england usually welsh borders as shawbury due to severe cold straight off the continent and much further inland than scotland is am sure there have been other years when the highlands have suffered will check out met office see if i can get some info

[NorthernRab]

very true it is very common for scottish highlands to record -20 and rare in england usually welsh borders as shawbury due to severe cold straight off the continent and much further inland than scotland is am sure there have been other years when the highlands have suffered will check out met office see if i can get some info

Yes, I think it would more be the access to continental air rather than it being inland I'd imagine (Badenoch and Strathspey are both very inland in UK terms). The thing that gives the Scottish Highlands the edge? Furtherst north in the UK, shorter days, weaker sun and a far more extreme landscape.

Edit: I'd be interested to see if similar winters could be found, they'd be very few and far between I'd imagine, but they will be there on occasion. In saying that, March can really deliver from the north when it comes to cold, so we may yet to the coldest UK temp so far this winter surpassed.

Edited February 26, 2013 by NorthernRab

[March Blizzard]

I wouldn't say its "common" for anywhere in the UK to record -20C and below, and that includes the Scottish Highlands.

It's difficult to say which factor has the most bearing on the likelihood of low minima in the Highlands.

In real terms, it isn't that much further north than the English midlands, so I'm reluctant to pin it on latitude. However, the topography is much more extreme so katabatic winds from the high groud allow cold to pool in the valleys, some of which allow little sunlight in and therefore the cold "accumulates" over days allowing colder and colder temperatures. This is obviously far less widespread in the relatively flat Midlands.

The midlands are obviously closer to colder air masses from the continent but the difficulty in cold pooling due to the topography, coupled with its more southerly latitude, make extreme cold less frequent than the Highlands.

I think its quite remarkable that the difference in record low temperatures between England and Scotland is as small as it is. Both places these temperatures occurred in are very different yet both have a similar capacity for cold.

[NorthernRab]

I wouldn't say its "common" for anywhere in the UK to record -20C and below, and that includes the Scottish Highlands.

It's difficult to say which factor has the most bearing on the likelihood of low minima in the Highlands.

In real terms, it isn't that much further north than the English midlands, so I'm reluctant to pin it on latitude. However, the topography is much more extreme so katabatic winds from the high groud allow cold to pool in the valleys, some of which allow little sunlight in and therefore the cold "accumulates" over days allowing colder and colder temperatures. This is obviously far less widespread in the relatively flat Midlands.

The midlands are obviously closer to colder air masses from the continent but the difficulty in cold pooling due to the topography, coupled with its more southerly latitude, make extreme cold less frequent than the Highlands.

I think its quite remarkable that the difference in record low temperatures between England and Scotland is as small as it is. Both places these temperatures occurred in are very different yet both have a similar capacity for cold.

I would certainly say northerly latitude has at least something to do with it; if we take the lower in altitude example of Altnaharra, there's a difference of some 460 miles between it and Newport, do that journey as the crow flies twice more and you're around the north of Africa - Altnaharra is as far north as Norway. Very unscientific means of study, I know, but the weaker sun and shorter days due to the northerly latitutde will have a considerable effect.

Edited February 27, 2013 by NorthernRab

[March Blizzard]

I would certainly say northerly latitude has at least something to do with it; if we take the lower in altitude example of Altnaharra, there's a difference of some 460 miles between it and Newport, do that journey as the crow flies twice more and you're around the north of Africa - Altnaharra is as far north as Norway. Very unscientific means of study, I know, but the weaker sun and shorter days due to the northerly latitutde will have a considerable effect.

I didnt say latitude didn't play a part, just that it may not be the number one factor. It obviously does factor in.

Sometimes it's easy to forget how big our small island is, it does actually span a respectable range of latitude. The north coast of Scotland is closer to the arctic circle than England's south coast. Fair point, NR.

[hillbilly]

it may actually be possible for england to take the british isles coldest day ever below -27.2 as -27 has been recorded in holland and -25 as far south as paris!!!!!!!!!!!!

[March Blizzard]

it may actually be possible for england to take the british isles coldest day ever below -27.2 as -27 has been recorded in holland and -25 as far south as paris!!!!!!!!!!!!

Holland's record low of -27.4C surprises me, just 0.2C colder than the UK record despite it's continental and eastern location (relative to the UK). Holland is of course very flat and low lying so, like lowland England, it's got few places for cold to "hide" and lacks the altitude for the cold to resist the strength of the sun.

I think the main problem with low minima in such places is that every day the cold has to start from "scratch", in other words temperatures have to drop further and faster due to the higher maxima. Compare the record low maxima between England and Scotland, -11.3C for England compared to about -19C for Scotland. Based on the extremely low maxima I'm surprised Scotland hasn't managed lower than -27.2C, officially. Perhaps the typically more dynamic conditions in the Highlands interfere with temperatures dropping lower, whereas the more "static" conditions of inland England allow the temperature to fall.

It's not just valleys that have recorded such low temperatures, though. Many places in east Anglia in particular have seen some extremely low temperatures despite the flat terrain. This can probably be attiributed mainly to the close proximity to the cold continental air.

Perhaps an underrated place for low minima are the Southern Uplands and North Pennines. These would be somewhat of a middle ground between the Midlands and the Highlands, in terms of latitude, altitude and proximity to the continent. However, there seems to be a noticeable lack of recording stations in these areas. If you check some old records places like Kelso and Bowhill have been within a whisker of -27C. Certainly impressive.

These links might be interesting for some following this topic:

http://www.torro.org.uk/TORRO/britwxextremes/mintemps.php

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/10/16/top-ten-coldest-recorded-temperatures-in-the-uk/

[hillbilly]

-21.1 recorded in kent ,1947 and -23.3 in liecestershire 1987 as well as the -25 of shawbury 1982.i guess both 47 and 87 were both as a result of cold siberia air coming straight off the continent. also here in the pennines we cannot compete with the low lying vale of york or lincs for cold temps i only recorded -13 in 2010 dec where other areas away from the hills got -18 yet almost all other times it is 3 degrees colder at 400m compared to the pennine valley bottoms just 3 miles downhill summer and winter,work that out?????

[March Blizzard]

-21.1 recorded in kent ,1947 and -23.3 in liecestershire 1987 as well as the -25 of shawbury 1982.i guess both 47 and 87 were both as a result of cold siberia air coming straight off the continent. also here in the pennines we cannot compete with the low lying vale of york or lincs for cold temps i only recorded -13 in 2010 dec where other areas away from the hills got -18 yet almost all other times it is 3 degrees colder at 400m compared to the pennine valley bottoms just 3 miles downhill summer and winter,work that out?????

Even many places here in subtropical Greater Manchester recorded lower than that in Dec 2010. Woodford recorded -17.6C in Jan 2010, although it is/was a frost hollow.

I'd be interested to know what kind of temperatures somewhere like High Cup Nick and other sheltered valleys in Teesdale could acheive in severe cold spells. -25C and below wouldn't be too inconceivable, I'd imagine.

[lindy2017]

-21.1 recorded in kent ,1947 and -23.3 in liecestershire 1987 as well as the -25 of shawbury 1982.i guess both 47 and 87 were both as a result of cold siberia air coming straight off the continent. also here in the pennines we cannot compete with the low lying vale of york or lincs for cold temps i only recorded -13 in 2010 dec where other areas away from the hills got -18 yet almost all other times it is 3 degrees colder at 400m compared to the pennine valley bottoms just 3 miles downhill summer and winter,work that out?????

We had -20 1995 winter barrhead scotland....but had the best summer 70 plus every day for 6 weeks.......

[hillbilly]

Even many places here in subtropical Greater Manchester recorded lower than that in Dec 2010. Woodford recorded -17.6C in Jan 2010, although it is/was a frost hollow.

I'd be interested to know what kind of temperatures somewhere like High Cup Nick and other sheltered valleys in Teesdale could acheive in severe cold spells. -25C and below wouldn't be too inconceivable, I'd imagine.

my record in dec 2010 of -13 was at 340m on a hilltop and i noticed areas of manchester and east of leeds got -17 or -18 not many miles away.it is always colder at that altitude even at temps around -6 but for some reason when the really severe temps turn up the valleys take over

[LomondSnowstorm]

Holland's record low of -27.4C surprises me, just 0.2C colder than the UK record despite it's continental and eastern location (relative to the UK). Holland is of course very flat and low lying so, like lowland England, it's got few places for cold to "hide" and lacks the altitude for the cold to resist the strength of the sun.

I think the main problem with low minima in such places is that every day the cold has to start from "scratch", in other words temperatures have to drop further and faster due to the higher maxima. Compare the record low maxima between England and Scotland, -11.3C for England compared to about -19C for Scotland. Based on the extremely low maxima I'm surprised Scotland hasn't managed lower than -27.2C, officially. Perhaps the typically more dynamic conditions in the Highlands interfere with temperatures dropping lower, whereas the more "static" conditions of inland England allow the temperature to fall.

It's not just valleys that have recorded such low temperatures, though. Many places in east Anglia in particular have seen some extremely low temperatures despite the flat terrain. This can probably be attiributed mainly to the close proximity to the cold continental air.

Perhaps an underrated place for low minima are the Southern Uplands and North Pennines. These would be somewhat of a middle ground between the Midlands and the Highlands, in terms of latitude, altitude and proximity to the continent. However, there seems to be a noticeable lack of recording stations in these areas. If you check some old records places like Kelso and Bowhill have been within a whisker of -27C. Certainly impressive.

These links might be interesting for some following this topic:

http://www.torro.org...es/mintemps.php

http://metofficenews...ures-in-the-uk/

An interesting point I heard from someone on the Scottish thread was that the reason -27.2C was hit three times was not so much a statistical fluke but rather that the thermometers used didn't effectively 'go' below that, so temperatures were actually lower than that but not recorded as such. I have no idea whether there's truth to that but it would explain why the same temperature was recorded to the decimal point three times as the lowest ever in the UK.

Equally the Highlands are far less densely populated than England and there are locations which I reckon would be colder than the likes of Braemar and Altnaharra (which are inhabited of course). I think Northern Rab suggested this also, but it would be interesting to see temperature readings from the likes of Glen Tilt, Drumochter, Glen Etive, Glen Affric etc.

[March Blizzard]

Surely all thermometers record below -27.2C? It seems like too random a figure to me, my money is on the statistical fluke! I agree about there being places colder than the likes of Breamar and Altnaharra where no weather stations exist, it's more likely than not. Anyway, it's almost certain the actual record is lower than the officially recorded one, the question is by how much?

[Norrance]

The last two -27.2s were in1995 and 1982. I think that the thermometers would have coped.

Back to this Winter. What are the odds of the lowest being sometime after next weekend?

If A cold high moves in with snow lying it is possible?

Only 12 years ago the coldest temp was in March though early in the month. Was below -20 though.

Edited March 3, 2013 by Norrance