Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold - 12th Dec

[swfc]

Straws to clutch have finally run out today I think .what a difference a week makes output wise!im still waiting for the PVto be smashed as been touted a week ago???oh we'll soon be Xmas lol

Edited December 12, 2012 by swfc

[Weathizard]

Surely if it can all turn mild/'faux' zonal that easily it can change around again? Unlikely but we live in hope!

[nick sussex]

Well after the dust has settled on tonights models a short, sharp review of cold/snow potential projected forward:

GFS Oh dear!

UKMO Fair going forward

ECM Better than the GFS but still not great

The models aiming to one day get into the Champions League

GEM Blah

JMA Fair

NOGAPS Fair

I'm being rather charitable with those ratings so as not to darken the mood further in here!

Looking at the ECM short ensembles together with spreads the operational run was a mild outlier towards the end, some solutions still eject more energy se'wards.

Still chances especially for more north/ne areas to occasionally tap into something a bit more wintry.

Going forward its hard to see a decent cold spell popping up before Xmas, the PV looks now to be moving, this could add some volatility to the output.

We wave goodbye to the Russian high later, again it keeps to its bad history with teasing but showing no interest in edging west, at best we might see this hang on in terms of extending a ridge nw but theres more chance of Jordan winning Mastermind than a full blown easterly in relation to this delivering!

My optimism rating has dipped a further notch this evening down from 5.25/10 to 5/10.

This is now very close to Code Red which means emergency operatives will be on standby to assist with traumatized net weather members!

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

WE are overdue a zonal winter, who knows it might lead to damp dull and cool spring, and break the cycle of dreadful summers. Once

we revert to a more mobile westerly / south westerly as the GFS is hinting at, it is IMO easier to see a pattern change down the line. We just have to work

through the process and hope that with time the PV can head into Scandinavia and the Greeny High can build.

we had 1 last year apart from beginning of feb and summer was awful lol Edited December 12, 2012 by Skeggy blizzard

[cerneman]

Like it did two years ago? Leading to them cancelling their seasonal forecast.

Exactly, Still got charcoal in shed from that,

[Don]

Looking beyond this though at present the signs are not great. GFS 14 day outlook shows an almost total destruction of the northern blocking signature and height rises over Europe

Let's hope that GFS today has the wrong end of the stick, and that the vortex shift creates as many issues in the next week as it did for the easterly forecast last week!

This is showing a pattern develop which is now backed up by many seasonal models.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Don

[bluearmy]

comment on the ecm mean charts is mainly that i find the output 'interesting'. almost interesting enough to fill my glass half full again. if the spreads are to be believed (and methinks there are several clusters), we could see a euro trough circulation by day 10, a shortwave approaching from the sw, extending its trough in our direction at the same juncture, and, more notably , the first signs of a major push of v cold uppers headed south towards n iceland at the same timescale. will be good to see the wind direction for holland in half an hour to see the likely size of the euro trough cluster. all in all, there appears to be a general outpouring of cold from the polar field in a week to ten days, probably to do with the vortex beginning its split away from ne siberia. it hardly arrives before its off again. i doubt the models are going to handle the movement of the vortex again with any great consistency re residual energy.

EDIT: i have to add that the cpc charts again illustrate how close we are to 'nirvana'. the set up for the next fortnight is precisely like forecast a week ago - just 500 miles north of where it was supposed to be.

Edited December 12, 2012 by bluearmy

[Continental Climate]

Well after the dust has settled on tonights models a short, sharp review of cold/snow potential projected forward:

GFS Oh dear!

UKMO Fair going forward

ECM Better than the GFS but still not great

The models aiming to one day get into the Champions League

GEM Blah

JMA Fair

NOGAPS Fair

I'm being rather charitable with those ratings so as not to darken the mood further in here!

Looking at the ECM short ensembles together with spreads the operational run was a mild outlier towards the end, some solutions still eject more energy se'wards.

Still chances especially for more north/ne areas to occasionally tap into something a bit more wintry.

Going forward its hard to see a decent cold spell popping up before Xmas, the PV looks now to be moving, this could add some volatility to the output.

We wave goodbye to the Russian high later, again it keeps to its bad history with teasing but showing no interest in edging west, at best we might see this hang on in terms of extending a ridge nw but theres more chance of Jordan winning Mastermind than a full blown easterly in relation to this delivering!

My optimism rating has dipped a further notch this evening down from 5.25/10 to 5/10.

This is now very close to Code Red which means emergency operatives will be on standby to assist with traumatized net weather members!

I'll have one of those emergency operatives right now please nick!!! The models really are bizarely awful with the mother of all U-turns from showing cold and snow five days ago to this!! Its not only the model thread thats taking a beating the strat thread is too!!! Its like all the joy and pleasure has been sucked out of netweather, I wonder which member is secretely a dementor!!!

Truly a bad time to be a cold weather fan, come on pub run do us a favour!!

A chart to help keep everyones spirits up, one of my all time favourites this :- http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1991/Rrea00119910207.gif!!

[nick sussex]

comment on the ecm mean charts is mainly that i find the output 'interesting'. almost interesting enough to fill my glass half full again. if the spreads are to be believed (and methinks there are several clusters), we could see a euro trough circulation by day 10, a shortwave approaching from the sw, extending its trough in our direction at the same juncture, and, more notably , the first signs of a major push of v cold uppers headed south towards n iceland at the same timescale. will be good to see the wind direction for holland in half an hour to see the likely size of the euro trough cluster. all in all, there appears to be a general outpouring of cold from the polar field in a week to ten days, probably to do with the vortex beginning its split away from ne siberia. it hardly arrives before its off again. i doubt the models are going to handle the movement of the vortex again with any great consistency re residual energy.

Yes BA I think especially for northern/ne areas a better chance of seeing something a touch more festive, the cold air is quite close and certainly those ensembles are better than we may have expected. But I would like to see an operational run going with one of those ASAP!

Without the ECM ensembles my optimism rating would have shown a rather more troubling descent!

Edited December 12, 2012 by nick sussex

[jennyifer]

ok

i only ever read this discussion never reply as i am not as clever as all of you who read the weather so well

.

few questions though

netwerther,s winter forcast was more on the cool/cold side rather than mild ....it seemed to me they were very confident about this are they still?

if these darn model,s were going to give us the cold we all ,well most of us want and then they go change so fast into well whats seemed like 2 cold days then back to a little milder .......can they change back to cold sooner than january .why do some people seem so sure its now going to be a wet mild or windy christmas?

do the pros at netweather reply much on this thread i thought maybe one or some of them would be on trying to explain to people why they think the winter will be a cold one and why we are not getting the cold right now

[PubliusEnigma]

Yes BA I think especially for northern/ne areas a better chance of seeing something a touch more festive, the cold air is quite close and certainly those ensembles are better than we may have expected. But I would like to see an operational run going with one of those ASAP!

Without the ECM ensembles my optimism rating would have shown a rather more troubling descent!

To my mind, the PV repositioning precisely here would aid the development of the Greeny High. And then look what could

happen.. :o

[Bristawl Si]

ok

i only ever read this discussion never reply as i am not as clever as all of you who read the weather so well

.

few questions though

netwerther,s winter forcast was more on the cool/cold side rather than mild ....it seemed to me they were very confident about this are they still?

if these darn model,s were going to give us the cold we all ,well most of us want and then they go change so fast into well whats seemed like 2 cold days then back to a little milder .......can they change back to cold sooner than january .why do some people seem so sure its now going to be a wet mild or windy christmas?

do the pros at netweather reply much on this thread i thought maybe one or some of them would be on trying to explain to people why they think the winter will be a cold one and why we are not getting the cold right now

Even here in Bristol it hasnt really been mild for a couple of weeks.

Stewart's forecast went into detailed explanation for the 3 months of winter - we are 12 days into that 3 month period. Might be worth u listening to the excellent presentation in its entirety.

Full judgement can be made on its accuracy towards end of Feb i'd think.

Edited December 12, 2012 by Bristle boy

[bluearmy]

ok

i only ever read this discussion never reply as i am not as clever as all of you who read the weather so well

.

few questions though

netwerther,s winter forcast was more on the cool/cold side rather than mild ....it seemed to me they were very confident about this are they still?

if these darn model,s were going to give us the cold we all ,well most of us want and then they go change so fast into well whats seemed like 2 cold days then back to a little milder .......can they change back to cold sooner than january .why do some people seem so sure its now going to be a wet mild or windy christmas?

do the pros at netweather reply much on this thread i thought maybe one or some of them would be on trying to explain to people why they think the winter will be a cold one and why we are not getting the cold right now

jennifer - this month is very cold at the moment with temps several degrees below average. although they will go up soon, there is little sign that they will be high enough to drag that average higher than normal and any cooler days/spells later in the month would help the average back down again. at the moment, i would expect the month to be colder than average. unfortunately, colder than average doesn't always equal snowcover.

[swfc]

ok

i only ever read this discussion never reply as i am not as clever as all of you who read the weather so well

.

few questions though

netwerther,s winter forcast was more on the cool/cold side rather than mild ....it seemed to me they were very confident about this are they still?

if these darn model,s were going to give us the cold we all ,well most of us want and then they go change so fast into well whats seemed like 2 cold days then back to a little milder .......can they change back to cold sooner than january .why do some people seem so sure its now going to be a wet mild or windy christmas?

do the pros at netweather reply much on this thread i thought maybe one or some of them would be on trying to explain to people why they think the winter will be a cold one and why we are not getting the cold right now

things app looked good ie blocking ete.within a week it's blown out of the water?i could repeat several quotes explaining why but the goal posts have now been moved to the extent that the CEt for December is being bigged up lol Edited December 12, 2012 by swfc

[EML Network]

with all the doom and gloom among cold lovers after a tease, surely the models can change again on a whim and scupper the mild outlook .

No doubt they will at some point and then just as it gets to + 144 it'll do another flip and before you know it, it'll be March :-(

[jennyifer]

i will listen to the full forcast again i have already and personaly think netweather stewart ect will be right they must have taken so much time and effort into it.

just seems a little odd that a few charts showing a little milder conditions and people seem to think this is winter over and the milder pattern sticking.

for me who does not know how to read the maps ect i just come on here and try reading the vibe and whats going on ,

and your right we are 12 days in so much more to come why are people so down .

[PubliusEnigma]

Even here in Bristol it hasnt really been mild for a couple of weeks.

Stewart's forecast went into detailed explanation for the 3 months if winter - we are 12 days into that 3 month period. Might be worth u listening to the excellent presentation in its entirety.

Full judgement can be made on its accuracy towards end of Feb i'd think.

From memory he was talking of a wintry spell around the second week of December, with a second amplified colder/blocking spell some 6 weeks later which

would take us up to around the 18- 20th January for the next potential cold snap with an enhanced chance of northern blocking. You'll have to locate the actual post as there was a lot of substance to back up the prognosis.

[latitude]

jennifer - this month is very cold at the moment with temps several degrees below average. although they will go up soon, there is little sign that they will be high enough to drag that average higher than normal and any cooler days/spells later in the month would help the average back down again. at the moment, i would expect the month to be colder than average. unfortunately, colder than average doesn't always equal snowcover.

That sums it up quite well. Many forecasters have gone for a below average winter, im sure they will claim they were right with many places not even seeing any snow cover by the end of the winter. The problem is the forecasters stick with 'averages' that means nothing to someone looking for some real snow and cold.

[nick sussex]

ECM longer ensembles, large scatter around the 21/22 December with an equal scatter in wind direction:

Temps:

Wind direction

So I think thats our next chance to get at least a colder shot, perhaps wont last long but at this point we need any sort of good news!

[legritter]

Just imagine gang if the modells were 90% correct out to 240hrs and 70% correct at 360hrs .what a bore it would be .certainly not boring over coming weeks ican see plenty of action a coming .i am i must admit let down but totally self inflicted . things seem too buisy on the charts that im convinced something good could pop up . we have had nearly 9 months of similar charts so a good chance of a change ,lets hope when it comes its on our side . tonights GFS 192 to 240 charts i feel could give us some talking point ,cheers

[bluearmy]

ECM longer ensembles, large scatter around the 21/22 December with an equal scatter in wind direction:

Temps:

Wind direction

So I think thats our next chance to get at least a colder shot, perhaps wont last long but at this point we need any sort of good news!

a lot of scatter beyond day 10 with the wind direction. note the op and control both outliers in the latter stages. i suspect both of them phase that little shortwave with the main atlantic trough whereas most ens members dont. the spreads seem to be not too keen on the rise in heights to our south on the op which brings the higher temps, preferring to drop them. the ens seem to agree (lets hope that continues)

[Timmytour]

Well.....we may be in for a perioed of zonal weather, but I think that's a result of unfortunate circumstances, rather than as a result of the usual set up.

One thing I'll always bear in mind from these couple of weeks is that, although the GFS is often said to overdo Atlantic lows, it's more than capable of vastly overdoing Russian highs as well!!

For me the Russian high is a stay-at-home creature. It's got the looks, it's got the money, it's got the power it could go out and pull anything it wanted to.....but it just wants to stay at home.

And that's how it is. I think we should do whatever we can to encourage it however in the meantime to come on down for the pub run.......

http://flic.kr/p/dACVyo

Oh....and now Gibbsy well on board with the mild....let's hope it has the same effect as when he got well on board with the snowy easterly!! (Should declare here that I love his summaries)

Edited December 12, 2012 by Timmytour

[PubliusEnigma]

ECM longer ensembles, large scatter around the 21/22 December with an equal scatter in wind direction:

Temps:

Wind direction

So I think thats our next chance to get at least a colder shot, perhaps wont last long but at this point we need any sort of good news!

Again the merits of the PV locating close to or over Scandinavia..

Interestingly this set up developed during late February and lasted well into March. Off the back of charts that the GFS is showing

over the Christmas period. So the short term may not look great, but in a months time the possibilities are endless.

[fergieweather]

Like it did two years ago? Leading to them cancelling their seasonal forecast.

Ah - but hang on.... I also (a) pointed out in my original post how we pay little attention operationally to the seasonal models, nor cite in wider public message (they're far too experimental.... EC32 is as far as we'll employ with better confidence, at least of sorts, and it's done well into early Dec) and also ( crucially, you can't compare the UKMO seasonal modelling of a few years back to what's being synthesised now. The new version, as explained in a fascinating recent (Sept. 2012) paper, has been 'retro-run' to re-evaluate the 09-10 winter predictions, with much better success versus the original, and it's worth reading the outcome of this work undertaken at Exeter - because it's important when making any reasoned assessment of their current seasonal forecast effort and offers some balanced insight into their eventual validity. Note also how the essentially average/zonal dominated winter this year was also signalled, broadly at least, in the EC & NCEP seasonal outlooks as well as the last ones from UKMO. Nonethless, the current suite of seasonal models remain very much embryonic in this area of science. Liz Bentley's comments in the BBC sidebar below say it all, really.

Anyway - for those interested, see - -

See: http://iopscience.io...326/7/3/034031/

And more accessible explanation at http://www.bbc.co.uk...onment-19584302

Edited December 12, 2012 by fergieweather

[karlos1983]

Well I said I would stay away from the models for a week, so far I've not made a day. I either suffer from terrible will power, or incredible will to bring in cold. (either way I'm in the dog house)