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Winter Model Discussion - The Hunt For Cold -12z 14/12/12


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley
  • Location: North west England/East Lancashire/Burnley

I dont knownwhy we are all bothering as my daughter whos13 has just toldmme the worlds going to end on the 21st anyway..we will have a blackout and then freeze to death.... that cold enough for you lol

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Posted
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight
  • Location: Freshwater Isle of Wight

The one constant theme I see at present in FI is the continued tendency to see a trough move over Scandi post Xmas towards the New Year. That sort of development is something I've had my eye on for some considerable time. How much that would affect UK re cold is unknown as so many variables, but I'm comfortable that we are heading in that direction.

BFTP

ECM has a huge part of the Polar vortex situated over Siberia moving towards us between 192 and 240 with hints of a cross polar flow.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

SWFC= SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY,bit of a give away dont ya think.

I'm sure Sheffield Wednesday has a fan base outside of Sheffield......

on second thoughts........:p

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

SWFC= SHEFFIELD WEDNESDAY,bit of a give away dont ya think.

Sheffield Wednesday....."oo ar they"

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Posted
  • Location: Kingsclere, Hampshire
  • Location: Kingsclere, Hampshire

Bit of cold zonality in ECM FI, so not a disaster of a run by any means ... but do we believe FI?

I am no weather guru at all, but, personally, I wouldn't trust the charts beyond about 48 hours at the moment. They have proven themselves to be pretty inaaccurate over the past 2 weeks. I'm sure someone will be able to explain just why they can't seem to get a handle on anything beyond 2 or 3 days at the most. Maybe there are some big underlying trends that the models just can't get to grips with at the moment......

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Posted
  • Location: consett co durham
  • Location: consett co durham

I am no weather guru at all, but, personally, I wouldn't trust the charts beyond about 48 hours at the moment. They have proven themselves to be pretty inaaccurate over the past 2 weeks. I'm sure someone will be able to explain just why they can't seem to get a handle on anything beyond 2 or 3 days at the most. Maybe there are some big underlying trends that the models just can't get to grips with at the moment......

yip they are based on the Mayan Calender and only go out to Friday,hence the confusion.

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Posted
  • Location: Langtoft. East Riding of Yorkshire. 70m amsl
  • Location: Langtoft. East Riding of Yorkshire. 70m amsl

Sheffield Wednesday....."oo ar they"

Massive - but like the failure in the models at the moment, unfortunately. sad.png Poor attempt to get back on track.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norwood, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Cold Winters & Warm Dry Summers
  • Location: South Norwood, London

So basically the ECM leaves us more clueless than ever, not only is the 72-144hr region very uncertain but the 144hr + region too.

Model Uncertainty at new levels

Wouldn't it always be the case that if earlier output is in question then later output would be too or is it possible for an outcome in 5 days to be set but how we get there to be in question?

I have seen comments before about the eventual outcome being the same but the route not however to be honest in cold scenario's what has happened is whilst taking one of the routes something else has cropped up and scuppered it so the eventual outcome was in fact completely different.

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Posted
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.
  • Location: South Shields Tyne & Wear half mile from the coast.

A bit silly to think the Met Office and the BBC weather forecasters are to mention a colder feed into the UK as its only 1 run, considering the runs beforehand show strong sou'westerlies. Unlike many folk on here who hang on every run and think it'll come off just because its the latest, wait a day or two and if they still show colder weather returning to our shores then a ramp away.!

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

I'm sure Sheffield Wednesday has a fan base outside of Sheffield......

on second thoughts........blum.gifgood.gif

We do actually even darnsarf!!!!!good.gifgood.gif

Massive - but like the failure in the models at the moment, unfortunately. sad.png Poor attempt to get back on track.

D-------rofl.gifrofl.gif
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham

I'm sure Sheffield Wednesday has a fan base outside of Sheffield......

on second thoughts........:p

Yes we have. ;)

Getting back on to subject, what's happened to pressure charts on BBC website?

They seem to have slowly disappeared over last few days.

Edited by Bradowl
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good evening. Here is my take on the 12zs from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Monday 17th 2012.

All models show a very complex setup as we move towards the end of this week and on the way up to Christmas. The current showery west flow will give way over the coming hours as a ridge of High pressure topples over the UK from the West. By Wednesday a new set of fronts drift steadily NE across the UK from the SW in association with a deep low pressure in the Atlantic. Through the second half of the week the fronts progress North and East is held over the UK as the main energy is forced ESE into Europe as the cold block to the Northeast prevents much progress NE of the troughs. This may mean that some of the rainfall previously over the South and West turns to snow over more Northern and Eastern areas before the weekend.

The GFS Operational then moves into the weekend with further rain over the South and West with drier and colder weather still clinging on in the North and NE. By Christmas Eve a more meaningful push of Atlantic air pushes slowly NE across the UK with heavy rain preceded by snow in some Northern and Eastern locations. Christmas Day shows another very unsettled day with rain or heavy showers in strong and gusty West or SW winds. Boxing Day shows little change before the period between Christmas and New Year shows a showery and colder NW flow with some wintry showers in the North and East quickly giving way to milder weather again with rain moving in from the West before the New Year celebrations brings in a ridge of High pressure with some overnight frost and fog temporarily at the end of the run.

The GFS Ensembles tonight show more than anything an awful lot of precipitation to come later this week and off and on through the rest of the run too with Low pressure always in control. 850's show a warm up before Christmas with uppers on the decline over the Christmas period though nothing far from average is shown through the run with the usual selection of warm and cold options. there is though slightly less spread between members tonight until late in the run.

The Jet Stream continues to show a rise and fall pattern as it moves across the Atlantic towards the UK and NW Europe for the reliable future.

UKMO for midday on Sunday shows a depreesion West of Ireland with a trough moving slowly NE over the UK giving spells of rain through Central areas with more showery weather following from the SW. Temperatures would range from a little below normal in the NE and above in the SW.

ECM shows a similar synopses to UKMO at 144hrs with rain moving slowly North through the Uk followed by a spell of windy and unsettled weather with spells of rain in strong and mild West winds over Christmas. After the Christmas holiday pressure is shown to rise over Eastern Greenland with the complex Low pressure moving gently East to Scandinavia. The thrust of cold air on the rear of this system is reserved for Europe but some cold air will seep South over the North of the UK with the mild feed restricted to Southern England at the end of the run. All areas would continue to see rain at times with snow on Northern hills later.

In Summary the pattern is a very complex one tonight. A cold block lies to the NE of the UK with mild Atlantic depressions successively buffering up against this block with copious rainfall and potential flooding issues possible in the SW in the run up to Christmas. Further to the North and East through the UK sees the risk of colder weather winning out at times with some cold rain, sleet or even snow possible on occasion as we move towards Christmas. The holiday itself looks like being wet and windy and reasonably mild as the block breaks down but ECM shows a lot of High pressure to the North of the UK at least for a while which may mean the hint of something rather colder close to the New Year.

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

I dont knownwhy we are all bothering as my daughter whos13 has just toldmme the worlds going to end on the 21st anyway..we will have a blackout and then freeze to death.... that cold enough for you lol

No doubt a shortwave will appear just off Norway to scupper it.biggrin.png

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

I wish gibby's summary was more wintry, haha, anyway, it looks like becoming milder, wet and windy as michael fish said last thursday, that guy is a legend, never gets it wrong does he! models show a milder trend from midweek slowly encroaching north and east but there is still a small chance of an undercut for the far northeast of scotland later this week with a chance of snow and not just for the hills either, but it looks like the milder air further south will even reach the n.isles by next monday and then all areas look mild for xmas week, similar to last christmas, deja-vu?

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

I wish gibby's summary was more wintry, haha, anyway, it looks like becoming milder, wet and windy as michael fish said last thursday, that guy is a legend, never gets it wrong does he! models show a milder trend from midweek slowly encroaching north and east but there is still a small chance of an undercut for the far northeast of scotland later this week with a chance of snow and not just for the hills either, but it looks like the milder air further south will even reach the n.isles by next monday and then all areas look mild for xmas week, similar to last christmas, deja-vu?

its not done yet lets just hope we keep seeing upgrades

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

its not done yet lets just hope we keep seeing upgrades

Yes, hopefully the 00z's will show an f1 freeze

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Posted
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: dry sunny average summers and really cold snowy winters
  • Location: falkirk, scotland, 16.505m, 54.151ft above sea level

i read that cohen paper on strat warming on the strat thread and according to that we should see high pressure ridging to our southwest then next step is to see the russian high moving west.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

its not done yet lets just hope we keep seeing upgrades

Xmas and boxing day will be mild (south) but still hoping for a northerly toppler 28th-30th, ECMWF seems like it would get there if it went deeper into fi

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Will close this thread in a few minutes folks and will open a new one in time for the 18z GFS and other data still to come this evening.

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

OK locking this now-new one here.

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