Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[gottolovethisweather]

0.6c here and frosted grass and windscreens outside. I wonder whether there will be some ICY patches to contend with before the rain comes in, certainly seems so.

[A.J]

0.6c here and frosted grass and windscreens outside. I wonder whether there will be some ICY patches to contend with before the rain comes in, certainly seems so.

It certainly is a bit chilly around the willy out there Tony (I really ought to put some clothes on before venturing outside...lol).....Tomorrow looks just awful, and I'm really hoping the hi-res models have over cooked the ppn totals to spare the otherwise inevitable flooding issues

[AWD]

Looks to me like the latest NAE has gone somewhat over to the GFS side of thinking, introducing a secondary wave of rainfall behind the main front over the next 48 hours. Of this is direct, then we could be looking at consistent rainfall from dawn tomorrow until dusk Thursday, albeit varying in intensity.

Here is the main rainband across most of the South West by lunchtime tomorrow;

Here it is at 18.00 tomorrow evening. You can start to see a wave develop on its S/SWestern flank towards Biscay;

This secondary wave then intensifies, as it makes landfall across a large portion of Southern England;

Before turning into a messy, showery mass of rain with varying intensity levels across the region on Thursday;

Ahead of the rainband, temperatures largely stay above freezing for many, although it could get very close in more rural areas of Hampshire, Berkshire, Wiltshire & the Cotswolds;

Ice & frost can't be ruled out in the above places, although if it does form it will be very localised & shouldn't be too much of an issue. Here you can see Dewpoints & upper air temperatures rather low ahead of the main rainband;

Here you can see the GFS version of events, with a large amount of rainfall predicted over the run up to Christmas;

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=gfs&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=rsum&HH=6&LOOP=1&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=

If this verified, it will cause problems around the south west.

[A.J]

thanks for the update, it looks horrible doesn't it?.........Interesting developments re. frontal wave, Ian F alluded to it earlier I think, and the other hi-res output (NMM) has it pushing up from the SSW tomorrow night and into thursday, and it looks like it's that wave feature that will cause the major issues

[fergieweather]

UKMO have held sway on the wave development progged in GM and GFS until the precursor development out west fell into NAE domain. Instantaneous rates vary on last runs but same general net result. Only hope is that the westward shift on the wave, as suggested in past 3 GM runs since yesterday, continues and misses good swathe of our region. But we can't rely on that, hence Amber issued based on ensemble spread with focus either way through SW peninsula. Spot totals 30-50mm look realistic; as does confidence on the NW-SE initial frontal split in the morning. Latest EC has wide swathe 25mm by Thurs AM and again 50mm areas in parts of the SW and S.

Edited December 18, 2012 by fergieweather

[AWD]

thanks for the update, it looks horrible doesn't it?.........Interesting developments re. frontal wave, Ian F alluded to it earlier I think, and the other hi-res output (NMM) has it pushing up from the SSW tomorrow night and into thursday, and it looks like it's that wave feature that will cause the major issues

It sure doesn't look good for the South West over the next week or so.

Accumulated rainfall totals over the next 48 hours;

Widely up to 30mm, locally more across Devon & Cornwall. Not what the South West needs right now, and this sort of event could yet be repeated again before Christmas.

It will cause some problems, especially at this time of year.

[J10]

It sure doesn't look good for the South West over the next week or so.

Accumulated rainfall totals over the next 48 hours;

Widely up to 30mm, locally more across Devon & Cornwall. Not what the South West needs right now, and this sort of event could yet be repeated again before Christmas.

It will cause some problems, especially at this time of year.

Those totals don't seem to tie in with the individual rainfall totals over the previous charts, as they have higher totals further west, I wonder if they will update to correct this.

Either way some heavy rainfall totals in the offing and I wouldn't be surprised if the meto feel the need to expand their warnings. Especially if the Wednesday night rainfall is correct as an inch of rain is forecast in 6 hrs this is likely to cause problems.

Ian, I would suspect that going by latest NAE, the Amber warning will be expanded to cover parts of South Wales.

Edited December 18, 2012 by Jackone

[AWD]

Those totals don't seem to tie in with the individual rainfall totals over the previous charts, as they have higher totals further west, I wonder if they will update to correct this.

Either way some heavy rainfall totals in the offing and I wouldn't be surprised if the meto feel the need to expand their warnings. Especially if the Wednesday night rainfall is correct as an inch of rain is forecast in 6 hrs this is likely to cause problems.

I was actually thinking something similar before I posted it but decided against the idea of arguing with a computer. :p

[fergieweather]

It sure doesn't look good for the South West over the next week or so.

Accumulated rainfall totals over the next 48 hours;

Widely up to 30mm, locally more across Devon & Cornwall. Not what the South West needs right now, and this sort of event could yet be repeated again before Christmas.

It will cause some problems, especially at this time of year.

High-res models (1.5-4km) show equally troubling totals to 40mm other parts of southern England. I think extension of Ambers tomorrow as things take shape has to be a likelihood. The GM for early next week into Tues looks decidedly scary. Like we need more trouble....

[AWD]

High-res models (1.5-4km) show equally troubling totals to 40mm other parts of southern England. I think extension of Ambers tomorrow as things take shape has to be a likelihood. The GM for early next week into Tues looks decidedly scary. Like we need more trouble....

Thanks for your continued input Ian, much appreciated, especially at times like these.

Whatever way you look at it and whatever model you look at, the end result is broadly the same. Large & unwanted rainfall totals for Southern England with no realiable sign of any let up.

[fergieweather]

Thanks for your continued input Ian, much appreciated, especially at times like these.

Whatever way you look at it and whatever model you look at, the end result is broadly the same. Large & unwanted rainfall totals for Southern England with no realiable sign of any let up.

Conservative estimate after initial frontal split suggests steady 18-20hrs rain from tomorrow circa 15z onwards. Deeply troubling. And meanwhile there's people fretting over possible Xmas snow??? Jeez. This here-and-now stuff is a far, FAR bigger story.

[cerneman]

For wrong reasons but maybe memorable lead up to Christmas for some

[J10]

Thanks for your continued input Ian, much appreciated, especially at times like these.

Whatever way you look at it and whatever model you look at, the end result is broadly the same. Large & unwanted rainfall totals for Southern England with no realiable sign of any let up.

Looks like the mystery solved, the accumulated totals are correct, the 18HZ has now updated. I should have remembered that the NAE tends to show charts from the previous run when it first comes up.

[AWD]

Conservative estimate after initial frontal split suggests steady 18-20hrs rain from tomorrow circa 15z onwards. Deeply troubling. And meanwhile there's people fretting over possible Xmas snow??? Jeez. This here-and-now stuff is a far, FAR bigger story.

That's only in the main threads, not here.

At this moment in time however, I would probably take a freeze rather than what's forecast. Might not be great for travelling etc, but at least homes & property would be intact (more so than flooding) over Christmas.

Anyway, we can't control the weather, it does what it does. We can only forecast & discuss it the best we can, learn as much as we can from it and hope to be able to cope in weather extremities the best we can.

Interesting, but at the same time, concerning times ahead.

[cerneman]

Well got the sand bags up at front door tonight, Local community been really good at pre warning,Seems lessons learned from last few weeks, Just fingers crossed for next few days

[mrsmall]

Well got the sand bags up at front door tonight, Local community been really good at pre warning,Seems lessons learned from last few weeks, Just fingers crossed for next few days

I feel so sorry for you guys. This is mental.

[A.J]

Well got the sand bags up at front door tonight, Local community been really good at pre warning,Seems lessons learned from last few weeks, Just fingers crossed for next few days

Yes, I'm sure we've all got our fingers crossed that areas which have suffered over the past few weeks remain unscathed over the next few days, sadly this seems unlikely at this juncture, but I'm sure any members in our region who do suffer from flooding issues will no doubt not only have the support of their neighbours and families, but will also have the support of all NW members in the south-west region

[cerneman]

I feel so sorry for you guys. This is mental.

Thanks, We have about 15 familys this side river been badly affected few weeks back, Other side river The Church and clusters houses get affected. Worse know it in 8 years been here, My son I worry about they had it real bad and has I type his Wife in Exeter Hosp waiting birth,Hope she hurrys up so can be home in next day or two, before gets too bad, Edited December 18, 2012 by cerneman

[Dorset Weather]

Hmmmm........just took a look at the weather station to find it reading -1.3c.......wasn't expecting that tonight, just had to scrape the ice of the car before popping out.

Won't be long before temperatures start rising ahead of the rain band though, lets just hope this system can stay west slightly as has been trending to save us from the worst.

[Bumpkin]

I'm use to mud and water being on a farm but it really does feel like i live in a swamp. As soon as I step outside its wet gooey mud. I've even been dreaming of hot sunny summers days whilst asleep. The weather is having an effect on my mental health!

Luckily all the animals are inside in the dry and warm for winter and we managed to get enough winter food together to feed them. The maize failed but we managed a 3rd cut of grass silage.

I just hope that if we do get high rain totals again that everyone stays safe and homes can be spared. It is never a good time to have a flooded house but Christmas time must be awful.

I've heard of people doing a rain dance but does anyone know if a dry spell dance exists? I'll get my dancing gear on and give it a go!!

[john pike]

hi guys

thought i would do the fax charts for the south east and south west tonight

hope this is useful for you

fax charts

tomorrow

south east dry am heavy rain due afernoon

southerly flow

not windy temps around 8 degrees

south west

moderate rain from mid morning

winds south westerly 8-10 degrees

south east

moderate rain

winds south-south westerly

could turn breezy early morning

south west

moderate rain

then early in the morning heavy rain passing through

light south westerly wind

thursday

south east

heavy rain on an of throughout the day

light south westerly wind

10 degrees

south west

heavy rain clearing in the morning

showers on and off throughout the day although not too heavy

light westerly wind

not cold 12 degrees

thursday night

south east

hopefully dry and light westerly winds

4-5 degrees

south west

hope fully staying dry overnight

light westerly winds

4-5 degrees

friday

south east

looks dry

light southerly flow

south west

hopefully stays dry

light westerly flow

there is low pressure close by so could change this forecast should it move north

saturday

starts dry in the south east

heavy rain on the way for the afternoon

light southerly flow

not cold

south west

rain in the morning being brought in by a stiff westerly wind

potentailfor this rain to be persistant throughout the day

sunday

heavy rain in the south east

clearing late afternoon

light southerly flow

thunder poss

south west

heavy rain am

clearing in the afternoon

becoming breezy on a sw flow

[AWD]

Dry spell dance...... Mmmmmm...........

Think it goes a little something like this;

[A.J]

Hmmmm........just took a look at the weather station to find it reading -1.3c.......wasn't expecting that tonight, just had to scrape the ice of the car before popping out.

Won't be long before temperatures start rising ahead of the rain band though, lets just hope this system can stay west slightly as has been trending to save us from the worst.

Yes, it dropped to -1C here with ice on cars, pavements and on the grass, I really didn't expect temps to drop this low...As you posted, temps are on the rise from the south west as the frontal system encroaches and by the time rain fall reaches all parts of the region, temps and dewpoints will be well above freezing, at least ice & possible wintryness won't be an issue.

[mrsmall]

Its gone up 2dgs in swindon in the last couple of hours. was frosty earlier now wet.

[fergieweather]

lets just hope this system can stay west slightly as has been trending to save us from the worst.

Sadly we suspect not. Current positioning & areal extent has good model support. UKV prognosis of 30-40mm even as far east as the S Downs and parts of Hants etc all indicative of broader potential for trouble beyond just the SW/W Country later tomorrow night into Thurs AM.