Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 18th December 2012>

[Kiwi]

By 18:00 Thursday, accumulated rainfall totals look to be between 35mm & 40mm for most places, which of course will cause further flooding problems;

Grief....didn't realise we had that much rain coming!!

Not often that we get more of anything in central south than those of you further west. Looks like Southampton, Portsmouth and Winchester could be very soggy. Fortunately the chalk rivers/streams in the area such as the Meon don't flood very often.

[AWD]

A brief look towards the long term suggests the MJO slowly progressing to phase 3 next week, supportive of some kind of weak Mid Atlantic high towards the end of the month;

It would be a step in the right direction for a sypnotic pattern change, but we would still need it to continue through the cycle to phases 5 & 6, supportive of northern blocking.

The Stratosphere warming is on the verge of getting underway now, although the core warming is still not forecast until January. At the end of the GFS output, we can see an elongated vortex, on the verge of self destruction. After this its all about pot luck whether we end up on the favourable side or not.

So a lot going on in the long term and a lot going on in the short term. Plenty to keep us glued to the models.

Currently haven't had much rain here yet today, but awaiting the developments of the secondary wave feature.

Edited December 19, 2012 by AWD

[AWD]

Here comes the rain. A "tail" of cloud/rain stretching from the South West all the way down to the Canaries;

http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true

GFS 00z also gives us another significant rain event over the weekend, with these rather startling accumulated totals by the end of the weekend;

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2012/12/19/basis00/ukuk/rsum/12122400_1900.gif

A "double whammy" on the FAX for Saturday, with moist mild air enhancing rainfall intensity;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack2a.gif

[SteveB]

Only had 4.3mm so far today, expecting more later I guess.

[Mapantz]

I'm under the Amber warning now which isn't a surpprise. My weather station will be doing over time! It's also looking likely that this will be the ninth month in a row of above average rainfall. I thank my lucky stars that i live on a saxon mound and not anywhere that floods. I really do feel for those awaiting more misery though, especially on the doorstep of Christmas.

[Evening thunder]

Not always been showing too well on the radar but we've had continuous rain/thick drizzle since the heavier band this morning, reaching at least moderate rainfall intensity at times. Todays total is now 17.6mm according to the Davis gauge, but I have 3 plastic manual gauges in the garden and were all showing 16mm when the Davis showed 16.8mm, so perhaps a slight over-read but not that much.

[Mapantz]

Not always been showing too well on the radar but we've had continuous rain/thick drizzle since the heavier band this morning, reaching at least moderate rainfall intensity at times. Todays total is now 17.6mm according to the Davis gauge, but I have 3 plastic manual gauges in the garden and were all showing 16mm when the Davis showed 16.8mm, so perhaps a slight over-read but not that much.

In Surrey? I know the radar isn't 100% accurate but that does seem extreme already. :o

[Evening thunder]

In Surrey? I know the radar isn't 100% accurate but that does seem extreme already.

Oops forgot to say I'm back at home in East Devon at the moment! Think there was only 1 event giving slightly more than that in Surrey when I was there from September to the 14th December lol

I'll change my location to say I'm in East Devon at the moment

Edited December 19, 2012 by Stormmad26

[Mapantz]

Oops forgot to say I'm back at home in East Devon at the moment! Think there was only 1 event giving slightly more than that in Surrey when I was there from September to the 14th December lol

I'll change my location to say I'm in East Devon at the moment

haha - That's cool. i thought it seemed a tad high for Surrey today.

[AWD]

Environment agency flood risk warnings;

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/3days/125305.aspx

Met Office warnings;

http://t.co/3x9rmQnj

[SunnySouthCoast]

Proper miserable day here, had around 4mm of rain so far. Temperature is 8C after a low of 4C

[geoffw]

is a red severe weather warning from the met office likely to be issued?

[gottolovethisweather]

is a red severe weather warning from the met office likely to be issued?

How long is a piece of string? Hard to tell but it is certainly looking bleak for those in flood-prone areas.

If you are concerned, please keep following the updates on AWD's link above and I would advise you to await updates from Ian F too.

Edited December 19, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[AWD]

Looks like a lull in the rainfall spreading up behind the initial front that's over most of us currently, with the next, heavier lot spreading up from Biscay later tonight.

Edited December 19, 2012 by AWD

[NO LONGER POSTING]

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/radar/europe.html here guys hope this helps

[Coast]

WEATHER WARNING: Significant rain expected tonight

Between 60mm and 70mm of rain is expected and the Met Office has issued an amber alert.

A band of rain has been passing over Devon this morning. There has been plenty of surface water but no serious issues with flooding that have been reported - only one fallen tree is know in the South Molton area. There are many jetters already being used by the county council this week from the last storm clear-up, and work continues on the network to resolve the back-log of drainage issues.

There will be a respite from the rain on Friday, however, further heavy downpours are expected on Saturday and Sunday and the outlook is similar into next week.

http://www.exmouthjournal.co.uk/news/weather_warning_significant_rain_expected_tonight_1_1747186

[AWD]

Latest NAE suggests the heaviest of the rain to fall in the early hours;

That's not to say there won't be heavy bursts during other times, that's just when the heaviest & most widespread persistent rainfall is forecast.

Accumulated totals by 09:00 tomorrow morning widely 20mm - 30mm;

Accumulated totals once the whole system has cleared east by tomorrow evening;

Exceeding 30mm in places.

Looking further ahead at a glimpse, here you can already see the next troublemaker approaching from the W/SW;

[Andy Bown]

5.5mm in Waminster from today's showery rain/drizzle.

The likely troublemaking frontal wave is beginning to appear on the radar in the SW approaches.

[Coast]

The likely troublemaking frontal wave is beginning to appear on the radar in the SW approaches.

Almost on time too......

[Dean E]

The Low that will develop along the front (frontal wave) in the Bay of Biscay is the one of concern... the upper level winds of around 110-120mph are helping development, hence the concern for heavy rainfall later this evening.

SM

Edited December 19, 2012 by SnowMania

[jessandjon]

Why is it a trouble maker apart from the huge amounts of water!!

Edited December 19, 2012 by jessandjon

[Andy Bown]

Why is it a trouble maker apart from the huge amounts of water!!

You've answered your own question!

[jessandjon]

You've answered your own question!

So no thunderstorms or anything I mean!!!

[AWD]

Saturday looks like a real washout day with the UKMO;

GEM;

And GFS all signalling a day of heavy, persistent rain;

Some very waterlogged football pitches likely this weekend.

[Eskimo]

So no thunderstorms or anything I mean!!!