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South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 19th 2012>


Coast

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

Enjoyed looking at the ramp charts - if only ! Its been a very strange winter on the model thread not replicated by conditions on the ground. Its about time some cards were dealt in our favour but I suspect we will be dissapointed. I can see some potential for the North West of the UK in the latest charts. Wish I could see the low heights digging further south and East but we just know that heights to the south or SW's will develop in the flow and ruin our chances. I am also fearful that a west based negative NAO will set up as we proceed into the new year leaving us feeling pretty downcast and frustrated.

I am confident that we will utlimately see a good spell of cold and wintry weather but suspect this will not arrive on our shores until the last third of January. I just wish that the displaced Russain high had delivered. Having lived much of my childhood in Kent I know just how well they and the Scandinain high can deliver for the South East. Even here in Dunstable we did very well out of the cold spell last February with two significant snow falls and snow lying for around 10 days.

In the meantime I can hear the rain falling heavily on the conservatory. Very glad that I am nearly 600ft above see level near the top of Whipsnade hill. I can only sympathise with those in the high flood risk areas and hope that they do not encounter again what they had to suffer last month.

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

Enjoyed looking at the ramp charts - if only ! Its been a very strange winter on the model thread not replicated by conditions on the ground. Its about time some cards were dealt in our favour but I suspect we will be dissapointed. I can see some potential for the North West of the UK in the latest charts. Wish I could see the low heights digging further south and East but we just know that heights to the south or SW's will develop in the flow and ruin our chances. I am also fearful that a west based negative NAO will set up as we proceed into the new year leaving us feeling pretty downcast and frustrated.

I am confident that we will utlimately see a good spell of cold and wintry weather but suspect this will not arrive on our shores until the last third of January. I just wish that the displaced Russain high had delivered. Having lived much of my childhood in Kent I know just how well they and the Scandinain high can deliver for the South East. Even here in Dunstable we did very well out of the cold spell last February with two significant snow falls and snow lying for around 10 days.

In the meantime I can hear the rain falling heavily on the conservatory. Very glad that I am nearly 600ft above see level near the top of Whipsnade hill. I can only sympathise with those in the high flood risk areas and hope that they do not encounter again what they had to suffer last month.

Cheers

hi dunstable

i must admit the north westerly to me seems possible

but i still think the charts are blowing the block away too easily from our east

the thing that keeps getting missed is potential a undercut scenario

i reckon anything past the 24th at present is fi and although i show ramp

charts, that is what they are

lets get this flooding potential out of the way first and see where we lie then

shame about xmas but its only one day

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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

Agree - So far this winter there has been too much energy in the North Atlantic and this has prevented heights to our North East being able to move far enough West to positively affect our weather from a cold perspective. I am very nervous about the re set and where it may leave us but with the PV and projected strat state as it is I do believe we will ultimately have a 'good spell' so too speak.

Not too worried about xmas day as we have to travel but would love a really cold spell to set in between Christmas and new year !

Note you are in Surrey - although I spent much of my childhood in Kent ( Folkestone) I spent my early childhood in Sutton and my dads family are from Fulham so I know your part of the world pretty well. I can only remember a couple of snowy spells from my time in Surrey but Kent was a very different ball game when the wind was in the right direction !

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)
  • Location: west croydon (near lombard)

hi dunstable

as you say time will tell but i expect a good spell of cold around new year on

i feel the atlantic will lose its grip around then.

have had some good snow here but best is a good old thames streamer

that can put down a huge amount in a short space of time.

anyway 5 days to go so merry christmas all smiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gifsmiliz19.gif

and hopefully a snowy new year

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Posted
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Very Hot,Very cold.scared of thunder and lightning.
  • Location: colchester,essex,40m asl.

Morning people.

The rain thrashing against my window woke me up about an hour ago.

Then i wake up to the gfs!

interesting times.

I have work untill 2pm

Then just 2 blowdrys sunday and thats it!

Bring on the crimbodrinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl
  • Location: Northwood. NW London. 68m asl

Good morning all. After a suprisingly quiet night the rain is lashing down here now in Hastings. It looks set to continue for a fair while yet as well. You have to feel for those poor folk down in the South West though.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Morning all from a very wet East and Mid Sussex.

Main A27 through the Alfriston area now very bad with a lot of standing water, up to 6" in places making driving fun, doesn't seem to have slowed many drivers down though which is quite disconcerting as they plough into it. More standing water along the back roads between Lewes and Burgess Hill, deeper in places and just about passable.

The Langney Shopping Centre, around a mile from my home is reporting that the roof has collapsed overnight due to the weight/volume of the rain, fire crews have been in attendance all night.

So maybe the end of the World will be by flooding then? :ph34r:

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK
  • Weather Preferences: anything extreme or intense !
  • Location: Milton Keynes MK

Morning all,

It's the last of my 10 hr days today....just half that to work on Friday and then my Chringlemas can start properly smiliz19.gif

I went out to the pub when I finished last night which was a bit naughty on a 'school night ' really but if it rained here last night (according to the weather station 9mm since midnight) I didn't hear it good.gif

Have a nice day angel.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

30.6mm in the last 24 hours in Eastbourne and still more to come.....

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Morning all. :)

Another unpleasant drive down the A12 today, thanks to lorries that never want to slow down and the consequent masses of spray. Still, I've made it. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Still, I've made it. smile.png

Morning Steve, all we have to do now is make it back again!! :lol:

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

It's bad out there today. Worst road flooding for over ten years. I suspect that those in Uckfield, Lewes will be hoping it stops.

Can't say that the forecast from Saturday until Christmas day looks too good either - with pretty much continual and at times heavy rain forecast.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

SKYWARN UK SEVERE WEATHER WARNING #068

ISSUED: 1800UTC WEDNESDAY 19TH DECEMBER 2012 (GJ/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

CENTRAL SCOTLAND SOUTHERN SCOTLAND NORTHERN ENGLAND WALES MIDLANDS SOUTHWEST ENGLAND SOUTHERN ENGLAND

IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200UTC FRIDAY 21ST DECEMBER 2012

DEVELOPING WAVE WITHIN A SATURATED FRONTAL ZONE, WITH MODERATELY STRONG WINDS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED IMMINENTLY, OR OCCURRING, SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE REGIONS INDICATED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WARNING INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO: HEAVY RAIN...PERSISTENT RAIN...RIVER FLOODING...FLASH FLOODING...STRONG GUSTS

DISCUSSION:

THERE IS EXCELLENT MODEL AND PARTNER AGENCY AGREEMENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENT AND RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT THE MODELLED GENERATION OF A WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG A BROAD FRONTAL ZONE, WITH HIGH WATER VAPOUR CONTENT AND STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING. AS THE WAVE ALMOST DEVELOPS TO A CIRCULATION ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER, HEAVY RAIN WILL ADD 30MM GENERALLY TO TODAY'S RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 40MM OVER HIGH GROUND IN STRONG FRONTAL WINDS. GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND HIGH RIVER LEVELS THERE WILL BE FLOODING INCIDENTS OCCURRING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, SOUTH WALES AND SEVERN RIVER CATCHMENTS, WITH RAPID SURFACE RUN-OFF GENERATING FLASH FLOODING.

DURING THURSDAY, THE AREA OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ENGLAND AND SCOTLAND, WHEREUPON THE TIGHTENED FRONTAL ZONE WILL STALL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY OF IN EXCESS OF 60MM OCCURRING WITHIN 24HRS, WITH 80MM TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD ALSO POSSIBLE. MOST LIKELY THIS WILL BE OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTERN FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER GROUND, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING EXISTS ANYWHERE WITHIN THE WARNINGS AREAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE UPDATED. PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER AND TRAVEL INFO AS NECESSARY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS FLOODWATERS.

http://www.skywarn.org.uk/

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Saturday now coming into range and another major headache on top of what will be saturated or flooded ground from this lot:

gfs_prec_eur60.png

Those areas on lower ground or subject to run-off are likely to be affected if they aren't already.

Back to today. That area highlighted by all the models yesterday around the IOW and inland, looks to still be in for some serious amounts today:

gfs_prec_eur12.png

gfs_prec_eur15.png

ASII_20121220_0730.png

post-2-0-31416400-1355990888.png

Edited by Coast
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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

Quick question Dunstable are you the legend that is Philip Eden?

I am not I'm afraid ! Wish I had his weather knowledge and experience to bring to this forum ! I know that he used to live in Luton. Not sure where he resides these days.

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Posted
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: As long as it's not North Sea muck, I'll cope.
  • Location: Alresford, Near Colchester, Essex

Morning Steve, all we have to do now is make it back again!! laugh.png

Hi Coast, that thought had crossed my mind!laugh.png

As the local weather station I use (cannibalise...blush.png ) is knackered (it's currently showing 1mm of rain having fallen today, with a ground temperature of -3C) I've decided to find another and have located one. The stats look quite reasonable until...

I then went to a page showing its all time records, here.

http://www.jbest.net/weather/weatherRecords.aspx

Why oh why do they publish loads of statistics, most of which are meaningless to almost everyone, but then get the fundamentals so wrong? All I can say is that 11/08/2010 and 28/11/2010 were unbelievable weather days, except I can't remember them laugh.png (28/11/2010 was likely to be snowy) Also the sunniest day stat can't be correct either.doh.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

My home weather station always seems to under-read against the nearest, official one at The Weather Shop (about 2 miles away), but the overnight rain totals tally far too well...

http://www.weathershop.co.uk/our-weather/weatherdisplaylive

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Rain today clearing just after Rush hour I think...

12122021_2000.gif

Friday looking dry..But look south west..

12122112_2000.gif

Saturday Rain starting by about Mid morning...

12122209_2000.gif

Not fulling clearing till around Sunday Morning

12122312_2000.gif

But as quick as that lot went (or not so) more rain moving in..I am not sure of the precise time on this one as it's a little way off yet..

12122318_2000.gif

This morning the BBC said this band on Sunday will be a tail or wrap around on the first main Band Saturday..

12122400_2000.gif

Yet More rain Monday?

12122412_2000.gif

Monday Lunch time..

12122412_2000.gif

Looking into FI (Christmas Day)

Looks Dry (Maybe one or two showers? But I think it will be cloudy im afraid)

12122512_2000.gif

Then it's all change I think as we enter a cooler period of weather perhaps with some Snow IF the Models can get a grip. Long way of yet so I am not making any judgment yet.

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