South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - December 19th 2012>

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

High of 10.3c today and lots of rain

[Snowangel-MK]

Chief Forecaster Nick Grahame explains the forecast for heavy rain across the UK for the Christmas getaway as well what weather to expect on Christmas day.

For the latest forecast and warnings go to www.metoffice.gov.uk

[Snowangel-MK]

Residents of a Hampshire village have been urged to evacuate their homes as heavy rainfall continues to spread across the UK - with more than 270 flood alerts and warnings in place.

The Environment Agency (EA) said a severe flood warning for Wallington prompted the need for an evacuation notice.

It said: "Wallington Village next to River Wallington will be evacuated imminently by Fareham Borough Council and the emergency services.

"This is due to a problem in the flood defence around the village. The river is currently just below the top of the defence and cracks have formed in the wall. The river level is very high and will remain so for some time. The wall has cracks in it and may fail."

http://news.sky.com/...d-alerts-spread

In addition to the severe flood warning for Wallington, the EA has issued dozens of flood warnings and over 200 flood alerts for England and Wales.

[gottolovethisweather]

On a lighter note.

Sing along in time for tomorrow.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Z0GFRcFm-aY

What a band.

Edited December 20, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

Sing along in time for tomorrow.

Or maybe:

I'm not sure I should be posting there when we are all looking forward to happier times next week, but here it is, another round of rain:

Edited December 20, 2012 by Coast

[Snowangel-MK]

[Bluebreezer54]

What a grim day it was down here on the South Coast today, but I don't mind that at all when the waves are crashing in. Its a shame high tide is just after the hours of darkness, but I managed one quick photo of the briny, along with a couple of seagulls who were totally non-plussed by it all !!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Local river here has burst it's banks people say it has risen 4-6 feet! The worst thing is that it takes 24-48 hours for all the water to drain into the rivers, just in time for our next deluge

[chilly milly]

Local river here has burst it's banks people say it has risen 4-6 feet! The worst thing is that it takes 24-48 hours for all the water to drain into the rivers, just in time for our next deluge

That's not good Surrey, I hope everyone stays safe.

[Jason T]

Where i live i have a stream called crispy brook,its more like a river,that keeps flooding the road,now they are building a brick thing,dont know what its called not a dam though lol

Its called a retainer. Funny thing is The World Ends tomorrow "Fire and Brimstone stuff" UK will still be here,Its to sodding wet to burn,Be more like a Turkish Steam Room......

[john pike]

quick run through these

saturday- sunday morning not good

ensembles mainly agree up to the 25th although still a variation on how mild it will be

call fi on the 26th

the 27th have runs at +5 and -10

hopefully if we can get some colder runs they will be drier

anyone in low lying areas watch this for saturday as not looking good

[NO LONGER POSTING]

No more rain please The river near me is at a level I have never seen it before!!! I know we have more coming argh!

[chilly milly]

John, probably stupid question, but....

If the white line (which I believe is the mean of all the runs) runs close to the red line (which I believe is the average for time of year?) does this mean that the weather is likely to be average in temps? That is my simplistic interpretation of it.

[Jason T]

Snow Forecast Page

Snow Forecast Page – Winter 2012/13

This page will be updated at regular intervals throughout the winter 12/13 period to highlight and forecast the risk of snow.

Thursday will see snowfall across higher ground in parts of Scotland, in particular in parts of southern Scotland. It will also be quite chilly in these parts with the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop at times. By Friday further sleet and snow showers will become more prominent in parts of eastern Scotland. It will also feel much cooler in parts of the north throughout Friday too.

As we head into the weekend, we will see a continuation of wintry weather across Scotland. There will once again be the potential for some blizzard conditions to develop again across higher ground, and it will also feel much colder for most parts of the UK too, especially in parts of the north (excluding the far south). The wintry weather is more likely to be confined to the east in these parts on Saturday too. Sunday will bring further snow across higher ground in parts of Scotland, with the potential for some moderate to heavy falls of snow at times. There may also be the potential risk of some sleet and snow showers across higher ground in parts of northern England and to the east of the country throughout the course of this weekend too.

Update added: Thursday 20th December 2012 - New update will be added shortly

http://www.exactawea...m_Forecast.html

Thursday will begin on another chilly note for most parts before low pressure begins to move gradually eastwards. With the cooler air still in place across the UK, this will bring the risk of some heavy snow at times across higher ground in parts of the north, with the risk of some lighter sleet and snow showers to some lower levels too. As we head into Friday the low pressure and weather fronts will continue to move eastwards, although these are likely to become quite slow-moving. This is likely to bring some further snow showers across higher ground in the north, with the risk of some further sleet and snow showers to some lower levels of the country too, but especially more so across higher ground in parts as far south as the Midlands/southern England.

Elsewhere will then see the development of some rather wet and very windy conditions as we head into the weekend. This will also bring some much milder conditions to parts of the south, and although parts of the north will be milder than of late too, it will still feel chilly with the continued risk of some wintry precipitation, especially across higher ground.

However, it won’t be long before the cold and wintry weather begins to establish itself across the country quite widely once again.

The original and detailed December outlook that was made available on the 9^thNovember 2012 to subscribers also stated:

"A brief period of moderation can’t be ruled out about mid-month (normal winter conditions), with the potential for some extremely windy conditions to develop at times".

?...

Edited December 20, 2012 by Jason T

[john pike]

hi chilly

correct

if you look at 26th to 28th that shows below

problem with these as a whole if a couple are way over warm or cold

the mean expected will be incorrect

thats why they need to be pretty close to get a good idea

when they do not match that is when i call fi

[abruzzi spur]

What a grim weather day it has been, but I know we are all thinking of those who have suffered, or are at real risk of, flooding. It just seems so much more cruel at this time of year. Apart from a brief respite tomorrow (which won't help much as the rain runs off the hills into the watercourses) it looks unremitting until around Christmas Eve. There might then be a couple of drier, cooler days but worryingly the depressions off the Atlantic train could well then be back with us.

I really hope the weather doesn't put off my elderly father from driving here from the West Country on Sunday - first Christmas as a widower, and all that.

Hope all are ok and looking forward to the Christmas/holiday period and being with friends and family, and getting at least one cold and crisp walk out of it!

Merry Christmas, thanks for all the posts and, most importantly, the sense of community pouring forth from our inanimate keyboards.

AS

Edited December 20, 2012 by abruzzi spur

[ITSY]

some very serious weather coming up for us (not to mention others further west) given the state of the rivers, fields and drains after this weeks rains

[john pike]

hi abru

happy christmas to you as well

the weather is gonna cause all kinds of problems at present

hopefully tomorrow will be dry and give some sort of restbite

waiting fax updates

a bit late at present

[abruzzi spur]

cheers JP, keep up the reports, much appreciated.

AS

[john pike]

be back in a mo was doing fax update and computer crashed arrrrrrrrhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

[john pike]

update what i have at present

after overnight clears it should stay dry

might be the odd shower in anglia

light westerly flow

8-10 degrees

friday night should stay dry

south westerly flow

5 degrees

saturday

dry early morning

sorry but heavy rain on the way

looks bad in southern england

heavy rain though for all in the afternoon

breezy westerly flow

not cold but will not feel it

saturday night

heavy rain clearing all areas by around 2am

breezy westerly flow

not cold

more rain on the way early morning

sunday look vey wet for southern coasts

strong westerly winds

feeling cold

coast watch this for flooding around eastbourne

showers north of london but not too heavy

Edited December 20, 2012 by john pike

[john pike]

monday looks like heavy slow moving showers

effecting all the south east

breezy westerly wind

feeling cold again

still waiting tuesday

[john pike]

i am going to stay quiet on christmas day

this will be different tomorrow and could be either dry and cold

or if things drop further south and east cold with precipitation

keep watching for now

[john pike]

still showing heavy rain 22nd-23rd

temperature back down to average on the 25th

drops to the 27th then fi -8 to +4 difference

there are some very cold ensembles

however there are also some very warm ones

take your pick

[john pike]

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/se/se_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

met office warning update

for saturday

sunday and monday