Ireland regional discussion 21/12/12 and beyond

[Watsy]

Nice to see a see return to more seasonal temps, first morning in a while where I'll have to take the kettle out with me to the car. Jut reading all your posts, I'm looking forward to see what the next week/weeks have in store.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Hello to the new folk

As a follow on question to Rochey's demand to know if it will snow on his plant pot or not, I would also like to know if it will snow on my dog at 9.45pm on the17/1/2012, the dog will not be sitting in one spot but will be no doubt running around crazily. I demand to know if this will happen or not, we the people, have a right to know. If I don't get the right answer there will be trouble

[Neiller22]

Not liking were the gfs is taking us last two runs! I'm getting very edgy again. This is looking like December all over again!! Will we ever get a bloody break this year!!

[markok]

keep calm. lets see were the ECM goes. for me it's the main model. if that starts trending towards milder i'll start to worry but till then keep calm

[Rocheydub]

My plant pot is looking warmer... For now!

[markok]

i'm gonna opt against the GFS run for milder. the jet is meant to track south and with the SSW event coming into play soon I can't see how the atlantic is gonna be the main player for all of next week. It's being using up all it's energy on us the last 3 weeks . All the other models go for cold and the latest met eireann and uk met office update is very encouraging for cold lovers.

[markok]

this is what met eireann are saying currently. very positive.

Frost, ice and fog will be slow to clear on Friday morning and some patches of frost and fog may persist well into the afternoon. Otherwise, the day will begin dry, with sunny spells developing in many areas. However, during the afternoon and evening, cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain will develop in south and west Munster, and a few showers may appear along eastern coasts also. Moderate to fresh, southeasterly winds will develop gradually and it will remain cold. Outbreaks of rain will continue in the south overnight and the possibility of showers will persist near the east coast also. Winds will become easterly, moderate to fresh, but breaks in cloud will allow frost to occur away from southern and eastern areas, with ice problems for some places. Outbreaks of rain in the south and isolated showers in the east will tend to die out on Saturday and sunny intervals will develop. Winds will be moderate, locally fresh, east to northeast, making it feel rather cold. During Saturday night, most parts of the country will be dry with clear spells, although showers may appear again near eastern coasts and also in the northwest and west. Winds will become light, northerly with severe frost and ice occurring widely. Sunday will start mainly dry and bright with frost and ice clearing slowly but temperatures will struggle to rise significantly. Winds will back northwesterly, light to moderate during the day. During the evening, outbreaks of rain will turn persistent in the northwest and west, then becoming more widespread across the country as the night goes on. As the rain comes further east, it will be likely to turn to sleet and snow, especially on higher ground. Widespread rain and sleet is likely for much of Monday, with snow possible down to low levels and perhaps accumulating in places. This will clear overnight into Tuesday; severe frost will result and ice or lying snow will persist. Tuesday and Wednesday will both be very cold with ongoing severe night frosts persisting into daylight hours. Most of the country will be dry but easterly breezes are likely to bring wintry showers to eastern counties later with further snowfall possible there.

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A very Wintry sounding picture from Met Eireann Markok

[stormforce 10]

a bright sunny morning here. overnight temp of -1.1c.

[ronan]

That's a nice summary from them as they usually hold back in forecasting anything wintry! It's going to be a long afternoon waiting for the 12z's!! Hopefully the cold theme continues as the model tread is depressing today!

[LaoisWeather]

Bit of a downgrade on Jeans 18.53 broadcast. The mild sector from the low comes right in over us on Sunday.

[Neiller22]

On a 14 hr shift at work. Can't see models. What's the update after all today's runs so far for the east coast of Northern Ireland over the weekend and next week and rest of Ireland. Are we still set to miss out. Someone at work told me England going to get hammered???

[The watcher]

ECM would see us not missing out at all....we'd all get a taste in the next 10 days. North and East coast most at risk but plenty of action possible in the South too with Lows diving to the South of Ireland. West probably driest, but even here has a chance of something too.

We'd have to be patient before forecasting any snowfall anyways, too far out to look at precipitation chances. It does look good though aslong as we see no correction East.

[Neiller22]

Thanks watcher that's good to here. Try and get theses last 3 hrs at work in and be home for the gfs roll out. Back in at work at 6 in morn again! Great. Lets hope all of Ireland gets some

[mountain shadow]

Clearly a chance for snow across the island next week. As usual, northern and eastern areas would do best however the south and west could see significant snow as the Atlantic moves against the cold block.

Hopefully tonights GFS joins the Party.

[ronan]

From reading through the model thread it looks like our best chance will come next Friday with snow coming down from the North! Gonna be a long week and there will be changes on a daily basis but as its very hard to forecast snow specifics then I would say that if things progress the way they are then there could be a few surprises almost anywhere in Ireland!

[ronan]

I love the way he puts the emphasis on Significant! Lol! I would say that we have a fair chance of being plastered at some stage next week! Bring it on!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/20964928

[ronan]

Come on peeps liven up!! Best chances of snow and cold all winter and it's like a morgue in here. I would say come Monday/Tuesday we could have snow moving down from the N/W! So many solutions at the minute!

[Neiller22]

I'm afraid I'm still not convinced. Gfs looks worse than earlier run!! This is by far in fact a mile from being a done dealers cold!! Don't like how consistent it's becoming with this outlook. Hope I'm wrong but seome model or models are going to look stupid

[ronan]

It will be all change again by tomorrow morning!! How many wobbles have we seen this week so far!! Trying to keep positive as if this doesn't come off then I plan on moving to a log cabin in the French Alps next winter!! Lol

[The watcher]

Suspect evolution from GFS to me, the shortwave should drop down with the Jet but doesn't, could be a case of GFS over egging the little Low. If it calls it correct however, we can no longer drag out the verification stats to prove it wrong. It really is a case of majorly wrong, or majorly right.

[Neiller22]

Met eirreann outlook not as wintry now either!! O dear. Hoping for gfs miracle in the morn

[Downburst]

Met eirreann outlook not as wintry now either!! O dear. Hoping for gfs miracle in the morn

Yes that is strange, someone just updated the forecast at 22:50? ECM not being used there, they do have the short range model. I can't think they just used the 18z but it doesn't matter as it will be changed again tomorrow. No panic either way. ******************* Just check the GFS 18z and the range is 4 to 7 just as he/she says, so perhaps they are following the GFS. I am sure he is thinking, no one reads this anyway, boss will be in bed now anyway Good night everyone and I hope it works out for us all.

Edited January 9, 2013 by Downburst

[The watcher]

Can anyone remember if I signed up to the weather.ie discussion boards? I cannot remember if I did or not and didn't want to go on and make a second account if I had.Probably be under "The Watcher" aswell.

[Neiller22]

O dear. Not looking good this morning. Looks like gfs going to be a legend!!