Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[bluearmy]

Who on earth has pointed to 'blizzards' within the next two weeks,never mind one? I guess trolling causes less damage than grafitti or knocking over traffic islands!

[Frosty.]

Who on earth has pointed to 'blizzards' within the next two weeks,never mind one? I guess trolling causes less damage than grafitti or knocking over traffic islands!

blizzards are occuring on the scottish mountains as I type this!

[Timmytour]

The point I was making was we had 15c, almost 16c on christmas day 2011, the ecm shows an equally mild set up so some areas would top 15c easily with that chart. I'm looking forward to seeing colder weather beyond mid month, really can't see anything other than average and mostly mild to very mild in the next couple of weeks.

this ecm chart screams fohn effect, I imagine the scottish mountains will be snow free by next weekend or soon after.

Looks similar to this...

Fingers crossed

[bobbydog]

well, after hacking through the undergrowth of negativity on here and taking on board the informative, sensible posts, this is (what i have concluded) the models are showing-

after a few more days of unsettled weather, high pressure builds, with milder more settled weather for the following week or so. cross model agreement with little doubt here, therefore little more to be said about that.

now for the interesting part. we are approaching an SSW, a virtual certainty, bearing in mind the strat is easier to forecast in that it does not have the wild variations of the troposphere. we are already beginning to see signs showing in the models of the effects of the SSW. indeed, the 00z shows a classic greenland high even at this early stage, as one possible outcome/effect. the 06z, though not as impressive, shows a disrupted, weakened vortex. it even shows a strong PV over greenland which weakens and disintegrates.

mid january has long been touted as a significant point in this winter and here we are seeing it unfold. how it unfolds, we don't know yet but we are seeing a significant change which hugely increases our chances of wintry weather.

i don't know about anyone else but i'm well aware that it will be settled and reasonably mild for a week or so. however, i'm doing what thread title says- hunting for cold....

[Frosty.]

Looks similar to this...

Fingers crossed

Hey I really like how you do that pattern matching thing, however, the comparison with winter 2012-13 and 1947 probably ends there.

[Polar Maritime]

blizzards are occuring on the scottish mountains as I type this!

Yes frosty, take a look at this pic from Glencoe this morning.. The mountains will be getting a real dumping, as this is car park level.

Edited December 30, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[phil nw.]

A heads up folks will be closing this thread in a few minutes and opening a new one ready for the 12`s.

Anyone who is ready to post it may be wise to hold off for that.

[Frosty.]

Yes frosty, take a look at this pic from Glencoe this morning..

Great pic, nice to see winter is occuring somewhere in the uk.

[phil nw.]

Ok locking this now-new thread here