Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12

[Frosty.]

There are rays of hope from the latest models, it's not as dire for cold as gibby is saying, he's not the oracle. The gfs charts in FI are not flat zonal hell, there are signs of blocking similar to dec 2010 in some of those charts. As for this week, there is a little bit of respite on the way from the flooding chaos but then more bad weather with wet and windy spells after midweek and then more to come for the next 7-10 days, looking at the ecm 00z out to T+240 there is no sign of any future blocking at that range but looking into the gfs 00z crystal ball shows a colder trend after the first week of January, chin up cold fans, I think in the run up to mid jan and beyond, the models will be looking a lot more wintry.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Frosty039

[lorenzo]

To be fair to Gibby and he has said as such many times, he will only comment, and provide excellent summary on the models as they are, right now in real time on the run in question. Without a doubt the zonal train is evident for all to see and the dementor that is the Atlantic + Jet combo much of the reason for less than festive cheer upon here.

What isn't certain is that this is locked in, would tend to disagree with that part of the summary, but taking the NWP output at face value could, in the meantime, provide that conclusion, more interesting to many of us am sure is what is beyond that and what changes we can expect into January.

[Frosty.]

To be fair to Gibby and he has said as such many times, he will only comment, and provide excellent summary on the models as they are, right now in real time on the run in question. Without a doubt the zonal train is evident for all to see and the dementor that is the Atlantic + Jet combo much of the reason for less than festive cheer upon here.

What isn't certain is that this is locked in, would tend to disagree with that part of the summary, but taking the NWP output at face value could, in the meantime, provide that conclusion, more interesting to many of us am sure is what is beyond that and what changes we can expect into January.

Yes lorenzo that's true but most of us like to look further ahead, outside the box as it were and the gfs this morning looks a lot more wintry not far into the new year, the next 7-10 days look a mix of mild and cool zonal with a lot more rain to come and more flooding but beyond that I can see some good signs of blocking which i'm sure will not be a gfs blip, by mid jan we should be shaping up for a proper potent cold spell, if not by mid jan, then soon after and that's not just hopecasting, the strat warming and other factors should be favouring cold weather to predominate by then.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Frosty039

[Troubleatmill]

Yes lorenzo that's true but most of us like to look further ahead, outside the box as it were and the gfs this morning looks a lot more wintry not far into the new year, the next 7-10 days look a mix of mild and cool zonal with a lot more rain to come and more flooding but beyond that I can see some good signs of blocking which i'm sure will not be a gfs blip, by mid jan we should be shaping up for a proper potent cold spell, if not by mid jan, then soon after and that's not just hopecasting, the strat warming and other factors should be favouring cold weather to predominate by then.

Other than a strat warming which doesnt mean it will effect us on this side of globe, could you tell me what the other factors are you mention. Cheers matey

i dont see the GFS hint at all TBH, although anything can and sometimes does happen, today i see no blocking other than a NA ridge out in far FI with no support?

I want cold as much as everyone, deeper with snow the better, but we do seem stuck in a bad pattern, thats reality...sadly

Edited December 24, 2012 by Nick JB

[Iceni]

Yes lorenzo that's true but most of us like to look further ahead, outside the box as it were and the gfs this morning looks a lot more wintry not far into the new year, the next 7-10 days look a mix of mild and cool zonal with a lot more rain to come and more flooding but beyond that I can see some good signs of blocking which i'm sure will not be a gfs blip, by mid jan we should be shaping up for a proper potent cold spell, if not by mid jan, then soon after and that's not just hopecasting, the strat warming and other factors should be favouring cold weather to predominate by then.

Frosty — could you clarify something for me? Has the stratosphere actually warmed yet? Because I always understood you got the event and then its effects filtered down into the troposphere to affect our weather 4 to 6 weeks later on. Or are there some instances when a strat warming has an almost instant effect?

So it warms in a week or so (end of December) and then the next week, (first couple of weeks of January) we get the blocking and it gets colder. Or would we have to wait another 4 weeks which would be the end of January/early Feb?

I'm getting confused dot com here.

[Frosty.]

Other than a strat warming which doesnt mean it will effect us on this side of globe, could you tell me what the other factors are you mention. Cheers matey

i dont see the GFS hint at all TBH, although anything can and sometimes does happen, today i see no blocking other than a NA ridge out in far FI with no support?

Ask GP about that, I think the strat warming in itself will be enough to trigger a pattern change away from mild/average zonal. Put it this way, I don't think we will be locked into a prolonged spell of mild zonal mush lasting 4 weeks or more, I still have high hopes that january will eventually deliver a decent cold spell and time is very much on our side.

[kev238]

I find it difficult to see where hints of dec 2010 are in the models at the moment. The next ten days look unsettled, average to mild, some strong winds, with frequent bands of rain. The only saving grace being the rain bands look like normal bands of rain. However, unless we get a dry period of two to three weeks flooding will be ongoing!

[Frosty.]

Frosty — could you clarify something for me? Has the stratosphere actually warmed yet? Because I always understood you got the event and then its effects filtered down into the troposphere to affect our weather 4 to 6 weeks later on. Or are there some instances when a strat warming has an almost instant effect?

So it warms in a week or so (end of December) and then the next week, (first couple of weeks of January) we get the blocking and it gets colder. Or would we have to wait another 4 weeks which would be the end of January/early Feb?

I'm getting confused dot com here.

It takes a while for the downwelling to create the potential blocking conditions associated with strat warming (it's still beyond T+240 range when the effects are shown on the gfs op run), I haven't been in the strat thread much so you should check what chio and gp are saying about it.

[Timmytour]

+T216 on the 6z GFS....and i think the high over siberia is proving a tad more resilient.....could this evolve in future runs into drawing up the Iberian High and bringing us cold easterlys by the 10th?

Straw-clutching i know, but i would say there's an anything-can-happen feeling about the models at the moment

[Bobby]

Very wet GFS 06z over the next week or so, especially in the North and West,

The 06z continues the theme of a temporary ridge from the south before things flatten again.

+216

+276

I'm not seeing any cold for the forseeable future, probably the second week of January is when things may change but I think unlikely before then.

[thesnowman]

TEITS is spot on again over recent days - well done, very little out there to give us any confidence in cold or even "cool" over the next 2 weeks. This is probably as bad as it gets ( or has been) in recent years. Such a promising outlook from our friends in the Met - however nothing as we approach mid way through winter

[swfc]

Ask GP about that, I think the strat warming in itself will be enough to trigger a pattern change away from mild/average zonal. Put it this way, I don't think we will be locked into a prolonged spell of mild zonal mush lasting 4 weeks or more, I still have high hopes that january will eventually deliver a decent cold spell and time is very much on our side.

hi frosty.You say dont think the zonal weather will be locked in and that jan will deliver a cold spell?Do you have any thoughts on why .sods law says we will get a cold blast in jan but the outlook remains totally zonal barring the odd atlantic ridge.I do find it odd when a colder scenario is shown at 300hrs + it becomes a trend.If a breakdown from a cold spell to milder is shown its an outlier and total fi rubbish?.Just wanted your thoughts in generall really.

[Troubleatmill]

Ask GP about that, I think the strat warming in itself will be enough to trigger a pattern change away from mild/average zonal. Put it this way, I don't think we will be locked into a prolonged spell of mild zonal mush lasting 4 weeks or more, I still have high hopes that january will eventually deliver a decent cold spell and time is very much on our side.

I have hopes too Frosty but that is all they are....hopes, i know GP's winter forecast went for a cold Jan, and i think he is without doubt the most knowledgeable guy here, but sure he would be the first to say that things do change in meteorology, and what were great signs a few weeks ago can just not transpire. extremely talented guy with everyones respect, but even the met office come out with a 'Barbecue Summer' sometimes

Ps Thats not to say something wont happen, just that no model is showing anything to grasp onto? i hope the 12z has a 1070 high over greenland at t240 with support from other models too, but as it stands there is nothing?

Edited December 24, 2012 by Nick JB

[swfc]

I personally think theres to much of an overlap going on at the moment between the strat forecast and the model output .bit of a contradiction i suppose as the are obv connected but the models within the usuall time frames are within reach and actually occuring.The situation can or could arise when people are putting all there eggs in one basket"strat warming ete"and ignoring whats actually developing in the models as they stand.Im in need of cold and snow as anyone but for me trends,background signals ete are fine but not occuring in the hear and now so not really relevant !!!!just my take on things and probably born of the current mo and the odd hopcast ete.merry xmas

[JP1972]

There are rays of hope from the latest models, it's not as dire for cold as gibby is saying, he's not the oracle. The gfs charts in FI are not flat zonal hell, there are signs of blocking similar to dec 2010 in some of those charts. As for this week, there is a little bit of respite on the way from the flooding chaos but then more bad weather with wet and windy spells after midweek and then more to come for the next 7-10 days, looking at the ecm 00z out to T+240 there is no sign of any future blocking at that range but looking into the gfs 00z crystal ball shows a colder trend after the first week of January, chin up cold fans, I think in the run up to mid jan and beyond, the models will be looking a lot more wintry.

I think from reading your posts over the past few days mate, you are placing a heck of a lot of faith in the Strat Warming event.

Because nothing in any of the models hint at anything cold whatsoever at all for the vast majority for the foreseeable.

[Frosty.]

hi frosty.You say dont think the zonal weather will be locked in and that jan will deliver a cold spell?Do you have any thoughts on why .sods law says we will get a cold blast in jan but the outlook remains totally zonal barring the odd atlantic ridge.I do find it odd when a colder scenario is shown at 300hrs + it becomes a trend.If a breakdown from a cold spell to milder is shown its an outlier and total fi rubbish?.Just wanted your thoughts in generall really.

Hi swfc, well basically i'm trying to be positive about the outlook, I have figured that being negative is of no use whatsover and although the gfs 00z in FI may not be a persistent feature, the charts caught my interest becasue they are typical of the type of charts we saw in dec 2010. We had that recent cold snap and the promise of much more when we had a cold stratosphere but a lot depends on what kind of strat warming event we are looking at, whether it's a drip feed effect or something more substantial. I'm just keeping an eye on beyond T+240 range because the next 7-10 days at least look locked in mild/cool zonal.

I think from reading your posts over the past few days mate, you are placing a heck of a lot of faith in the Strat Warming event.

Because nothing in any of the models hint at anything cold whatsoever at all for the vast majority for the foreseeable.

Yes I am, I do realise the blocking that usually develops from it will not necessarily benefit the uk but I choose to believe it will until evidence suggests otherwise.

[Jason M]

I personally think theres to much of an overlap going on at the moment between the strat forecast and the model output .bit of a contradiction i suppose as the are obv connected but the models within the usuall time frames are within reach and actually occuring.The situation can or could arise when people are putting all there eggs in one basket"strat warming ete"and ignoring whats actually developing in the models as they stand.Im in need of cold and snow as anyone but for me trends,background signals ete are fine but not occuring in the hear and now so not really relevant !!!!just my take on things and probably born of the current mo and the odd hopcast ete.merry xmas

Ah come on, without hope what else is there? :-)

Anyway, different day same charts. When I look through the ensembles I tend to run through them all at 144 hours as the edge of the realisable (ish) timeframe, 192 hours as the end of high resolution and around the 300 hours mark for very broad trends.

Looking through all the ensembles at the three timescales the only possible conclusion is a minimum 15 days of zonal from today. There is a little scatter at 300 hours as would be expected but overall its very poor indeed. The work others have done in the strat thread is top notch. Personally I'm sceptical that it will make any difference at all in our part of the world, but I'm open to being wrong and I don't see that there should be a problem with some crossover into this thread.

Also, beware the ghost of Christmas future :-) be very wary of any sudden cold spells in the charts over the next few days as sometimes they seem to go a big mad over Christmas. Data issues probably.

Jason

[Lampostwatcher]

Can't see any thing positive for cold lovers in the next 10 days

[Bristawl Si]

I personally think theres to much of an overlap going on at the moment between the strat forecast and the model output .bit of a contradiction i suppose as the are obv connected but the models within the usuall time frames are within reach and actually occuring.The situation can or could arise when people are putting all there eggs in one basket"strat warming ete"and ignoring whats actually developing in the models as they stand.Im in need of cold and snow as anyone but for me trends,background signals ete are fine but not occuring in the hear and now so not really relevant !!!!just my take on things and probably born of the current mo and the odd hopcast ete.merry xmas

I tend to agree swfc.

From what i gather even for those who have researched/and are researching the connection between Strat warming and the weather, would say they're still learning - it's v much in its infancy in scientific terms.

There are a few on here who are v well researched on it and are way way ahead of the vast majority (chio, recretos, GP to name three)

But i think it's typical of today's internet age that many many more NW posters are simply quoting and re-quoting - chucking in the odd line in their posts referring to the Strat, etc. That means the 'knowledge' effectively gets 'diluted' as more and more posts come from those who don't really know, but are just quoting references from the more 'experienced' Strat posters.

Sorry but that's the way i see it.

As for the models it's pretty obvious we're in a v zonal period, with possibly a quieter spell around the new year. If it stays mild then so be it.

Maybe there'll be changes around mid-month but at the mo that's a long way off (in UK weather terms).

[wolvesfan]

Morning all,

From a cold perspective the models are shocking thats for sure,its plain to see the zonal flows set to continue for a while yet,however i think theres still good reason to be optimistic for the rest of winter (historically,coldest months to come).

Theres been signs of change for a while in the strat and we are now starting to see warming to the middle area,

IMO the anomolously cold strat has been the problem all along even with the failed easterly episode.too much residule energy from the dissplaced vortex keeping the polar westerly flow strong,the fuel supply is now being cut off and we should see implications down in the troposphere with a decrease in the zonal flow and a greater chance of a polar outbreak into the mid lattitudes,hopefully to our benefit.

So theres still plenty IMO to remain optimistic about despite the MRF not being what we would have wished for.

Wolvesfan.

Edited December 24, 2012 by wolvesfan

[swfc]

Ah come on, without hope what else is there? :-)

Anyway, different day same charts. When I look through the ensembles I tend to run through them all at 144 hours as the edge of the realisable (ish) timeframe, 192 hours as the end of high resolution and around the 300 hours mark for very broad trends.

Looking through all the ensembles at the three timescales the only possible conclusion is a minimum 15 days of zonal from today. There is a little scatter at 300 hours as would be expected but overall its very poor indeed. The work others have done in the strat thread is top notch. Personally I'm sceptical that it will make any difference at all in our part of the world, but I'm open to being wrong and I don't see that there should be a problem with some crossover into this thread.

Also, beware the ghost of Christmas future :-) be very wary of any sudden cold spells in the charts over the next few days as sometimes they seem to go a big mad over Christmas. Data issues probably.

Jason

my point with the strat warming event ete seems by some to be gearing the uk up for some major outbreak of cold ie the less exp members who hang on every post sometimes.The strat thread is indeed very infomative and at no point did i say different .Take what you want and when you want from the mo but i just try and see whats in front of me here and now .

[syncmaster]

Got to say it but this morning the standard of posts by one or two members and ganging up on another member !! as sank to an all time low frosty as

put is thoughts down and that is is beliefs he as answered your questions and that should be that and some of the one liners on here does nothing in

a million years to add to this thread !! please go back to page 1 and read what paul sees as acceptible to write to the thread (Sorry mods this is one time

when somthing as to be said please delete as requirerd)

Dave

[Bristawl Si]

Got to say it but this morning the standard of posts by one or two members and ganging up on another member !! as sank to an all time low frosty as

put is thoughts down and that is is beliefs he as answered your questions and that should be that and some of the one liners on here does nothing in

a million years to add to this thread !! please go back to page 1 and read what paul sees as acceptible to write to the thread (Sorry mods this is one time

when somthing as to be said please delete as requirerd)

Dave

I think you've misinterpreted some posts to be honest.

I've just read back through and the posts in direct reply to Frosty we're just asking Qs, quite polite, in no way were they disrespectful.

This is a discussion forum after all. And i think there's been some decent discussion going on in the last hour. That's how i see it anyway.

[swfc]

Got to say it but this morning the standard of posts by one or two members and ganging up on another member !! as sank to an all time low frosty as

put is thoughts down and that is is beliefs he as answered your questions and that should be that and some of the one liners on here does nothing in

a million years to add to this thread !! please go back to page 1 and read what paul sees as acceptible to write to the thread (Sorry mods this is one time

when somthing as to be said please delete as requirerd)

Dave

????hmmm,my post to frosty was a question which he answered in full!!Im thinking sometimes that maybe a bit of conversation is that little bit more constructive than the usual one liners and "snowfall imby"esq fi posts.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Something to keep an eye on for the snow lovers in Scotland and Ireland for the 29th/30th December as the cold northerly blast to the east of Greenland might give us a 36-hour window of cold north-westerly winds with sunshine and snow showers:

http://cdn.nwstatic..../h850t850eu.png

That chart is from the GFS, but the ECMWF and UKMO and the ECMWF ensemble mean all show strong support for it.

Nothing particularly remarkable, but I remember previous examples of similar polar maritime blasts bringing lying snow to parts of north and west Scotland, Ireland and on higher ground over Wales and NW England. There was one on the 28th December 1998 following the notorious gale on the 26th/27th, and 18th January 2005 was another good example. The GFS 06Z run is projecting wintry showers quite widely over northern England also. I'm placing it in the "worth watching" category although bear in mind that such blasts are often toned down as we get nearer the time.

Before that, we have a few days of relatively quiet weather to come, but there will be a broad scoop of tropical maritime air preceding the possible 36-hour cold blast, as the 28th/29th December look like being particularly grey and wet for most of us, particularly the west of Britain, which will lead to further flooding. With a deep Icelandic low there will also be strong to gale force winds in many parts of the country, so the period 28th-31st December is worth keeping an eye on for various reasons.

Edited December 24, 2012 by Thundery wintry showers