January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[Bumpkin]

3.1c for me please.

[Fozfoster]

My guessimate is.................................................................4.6c.

Thanks for all the hard work put in this year Jackone and Roger.

[Muffelchen]

3.6°C for me.

Gonna be mild initially, then colder. I don't believe it will be all that cold though so a little above average on the whole.

Not done this before: great idea

[sparky1972]

dont normally have a good but i will go for 7.2, i see that temps are predicted to be mid teens by next weekend and my hunch says that them temps will be around for a while

[Ninman]

4.4c for me.

[Continental Climate]

5.9c for me ta

[Milhouse]

4.8c please.

[Midlands Ice Age]

I'll try to keep up this year.......

Anyway I'll start off with +3.2C for January. (- Usual excuse of dry mildish start but with cold finish).

Also can I put in an early marker for February (I will miss till the 2nd of Feb due to holidays - unless I can get network access) of

-1.1C (yes thats correct - is minus). At least I won't miss out on one month then!!!!!

Midlands Ice Age

[Guest pjl20101]

4.4 maybe higher if the cold PDO gives way and solar activity increases.

[Bobby]

I'll say 5.7c

[Harve]

3.9c seems reasonable.

[seabreeze86]

3.4 for me please.

[Weather-history]

2.4C

[chionomaniac]

3.6ºC please

[sundog]

My guess is 4.0c

[BornFromTheVoid]

3.2C thanks

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

6.0C

[Jack Wales]

Bartlett high to dominate, the much vaunted ssw will not sufficiently curb the jet stream. Mild... 5.1°C

[Kain]

4.7, Danke

[Roger J Smith]

Table of January CET averages and extremes

with contest entries

(this will appear again on 4th with all entries added to end of 3 Jan)

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ... Craig Evans

7.9 ...

7.8 ...

7.7 ...

7.6 ...

7.5 ... ... ... ... ... warmest January (1916)

7.4 ...

7.3 ... ... ... ... ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)

7.2 ... Sparky1972

7.1 ... ... ... ... ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... ... ... ... ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1934 (2007)

6.9 ... robbie69

6.8 ...

6.7 ...

6.6 ...

6.5 ... syed2878

6.4 ...

6.3 ...

6.2 ... Backtrack

6.1 ... Gimmesomesnow

6.0 ... Styx, AtlanticFlamethrower

5.9 ... Continental Climate

5.8 ... Roger J Smith

5.7 ... reef, Bobby

5.6 ... Gavin

5.5 ... mark4, Carl46Wrexham

5.4 ... Januarysnow

5.3 ...The PIT

5.2 ...

5.1 ... Jack Wales

5.0 ...

4.9 ... Sunlover, DAVID SNOW

4.8 ... SteveB, Milhouse

4.7 ... Mark Neal, Kain ... ... ... ... --- average 2001-12 ---- (4.65)

4.6 ... Yozzer, Aaron, Terminal Moraine, fozfoster

4.5 ... DR(S)NO, A Winter's Tale

4.4 ... summer blizzard, Ninman, pjl20101 ... ... ... ... --- average 1981-2010 -----

4.3 ... Stargazer, damianslaw

4.2 ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 -----

4.1 ...

4.0 ... easy-oasy, trickydicky, sundog

3.9 ... virtualsphere, Harve ... ... ... ... --- average 1901-2000 ----

3.8 ... lesaro, Norrance ... ... ... ...--- average 1961-1990 -----

3.7 ...

3.6 ... Muffelchen, chionomaniac

3.5 ...

3.4 ... LomondSnowstorm, seabreeze86

3.3 ...

3.2 ... Isolated Frost, Midlands Ice Age, BornFromTheVoid ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-2012 ----- (3.24)

3.1 ... sn0wman, shuggee, Cirrostratus

3.0 ... Rybris Ponce ... ... ... ... --- average 1801-1900 ----

2.9 ... Gael_Force ... ... ... ... --- average 1701-1800 ----

2.8 ...

2.7 ... Polar Gael, Mark Bayley

2.6 ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ----

2.5 ... 22nov10blast, Skeggy blizzard, DiagonalRedLine, alexisj9, sebastiaan1973

2.4 ... Weather-history

2.3 ...

2.2 ... Snowstorm1

2.1 ...

2.0 ...

1.9 ...

1.8 ...

1.7 ... mikeocarroll

1.6 ...

1.5 ...

1.4 ... ... ... ... coldest past 25 yrs (2010)

1.3 ...

1.2 ...

1.1 ...

1.0 ...

0.9 ...

0.8 ... ... ... ... coldest past 30 yrs (1985, 1987)

0.7 ...

0.6 ...

0.5 ...

0.4 ...

0.3 ...

0.2 ...

0.1 ...

0.0 ...

-0.1 ..

-0.2 .. BARRY

-0.3 ..

-0.4 .. ... ... ... last subzero (1979)

-0.5 ..

-0.6 ..

-0.7 ..

-0.8 ..

-0.9 ..

-1.0 .. ... ... ... twelfth coldest (1695)

-1.1 ..

-1.2 ..

-1.3 .. AWD

-1.4 .. ... ... ... eleventh coldest (1940)

-1.5 .. ... ... ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)

-1.6 .. ... ... ... seventh coldest (1776)

-1.7 ..

-1.8 ..

-1.9 ..

-2.0 .. ... ... ... sixth coldest (1716)

-2.1 .. ... ... ... fifth coldest, and coldest 20th century (1963)

-2.2 ..

-2.3 ..

-2.4 ..

-2.5 ..

-2.6 ..

-2.7 ..

-2.8 .. ... ... ... fourth coldest (1740)

-2.9 .. ... ... ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 .. ... ... ... second coldest (1684)

-3.1 .. ... ... ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)

-8.4 ... coldest daily CET mean in past 50 yrs (23rd, 1963)

-11.9 ... coldest daily CET mean, 20th 1838

___________________________________________________________

So far, 66 entries, the median is 4.4 but the guesses seem to fall into two clusters around 2-3 and 5-6 suggesting a split in opinion about when or if colder air is coming. Table to be updated again after close of entries on morning of 4th January. I will edit in as many as possible to this post later "today" and edit the entry count and median.

This is one month where Craig Evans could at some point be in the lead (it has happened before).

Edited December 31, 2012 by Roger J Smith

[DR Hosking]

my guess is 4.9c

[mulzy]

3.5c. A mild first 10 days then cold.

[coram]

6.3 please

[Froze were the Days]

Hmmmm really difficult one to predict, obviously a mild start and I can see some cooling towards mid-month and after but not enough I feel to off-set the mild start so I'm going for 5.4c

[Kentish Man]

Looking at Roger's figures the CET for 2001 - 12 which stands at 4.7C is in historical terms incredibly high and it is clear we are well overdue some cold ones to rebalance the figures. It is difficult to see this one as being likely to do this given the expected mild start but I am hopeful of a colder ending.

4.1C please