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January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)


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Posted
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: cold with frost & snow in winter; hot and dry in summer
  • Location: Dunstable 446ft ASL

An optimistic 2.8c for me please.

Happy new year to everyone

Cheers

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

Totally forgot 4.2c

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

January has opened with 4.9c

we are likely to see further increases over the coming days as mild air dominates the start of 2013

Edited by Gavin.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

a late 3.8c please in line with LRF. Last 3rd very very cold so wouldn't be surprised at lower

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

6.1C, typical modern January, looks drier thankfully for the flooded areas, could well be looking at an exceptionally mild first week, then I reckon cooling off to average

huh, always go for mild, then anyone will be right, thoughts on January not changed, I do now think though a record breakingly warm first half of Jan, and still average 2nd half, 6.1C I reckon now a little low

unusual for me to guess a 'winter' cet too low! the ultimate môdern winter believer

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Certainly going to be a very mild start to the month - will be interesting to see whether the first week ends up being one of the mildest starts to Jan ever - good chance given how high minima is likely to be, I think values will be on a par with what we would normally expect to see in late April. Average mins of 10-11 degrees notably very high indeed.

Jan 2012 started on a very mild note as well - not sure what the CET value was by the 10th but I remember it being quite high. Other very mild starts to January occured in 2005, 2007 and 2008.

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Posted
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: cold and snowy in winter, a good mix of weather the rest of the time
  • Location: Glasgow, Scotland (Charing Cross, 40m asl)

Certainly going to be a very mild start to the month - will be interesting to see whether the first week ends up being one of the mildest starts to Jan ever - good chance given how high minima is likely to be, I think values will be on a par with what we would normally expect to see in late April. Average mins of 10-11 degrees notably very high indeed.

Jan 2012 started on a very mild note as well - not sure what the CET value was by the 10th but I remember it being quite high. Other very mild starts to January occured in 2005, 2007 and 2008.

The highest of those was 2007 which had a mean of 8.1C by the 10th,followed by 7.7C to the 10th in 2005 and 7.4C last January. All those listed except last January finished above 6C.

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Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

-0.2C deviation from the January CET average

Edited by Village
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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Today's minimum is 8.5C while maxima look like getting up to around 11C, so a jump to around 7.5C tomorrow is likely.

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

7.8C to the 5th (9.0)

7.9C to the 6th (8.1)

7.9C to the 7th (8.4)

8.0C to the 8th (8.3)

7.6C to the 9th (4.7)

7.1C to the 10th (2.9)

6.8C to the 11th (2.8]

Mid 5s to 6C by the 15th maybe?

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Expect the CET to peak on the 8th with quite a sharp fall thereafter for the foreseeable future, still it will go down as a very mild start to January indeed, however, by next weekend we could see CET values down close to freezing levels, high pressure overhead at this time of year often means very cold days as the sun is so weak with fog lingering in places - we saw such conditions during the 11-14 December.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

As per Jackone's request, the updated table of entries is over in the scoring thread. Post 115 above (Village) is not included, not sure if that's a forecast or not, but in any case would be too late (and wrong format).

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Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam

January 1950 is a good example of an exceptionally mild first half followed by a very cold second half

January 1950 CET: 4.2

First half: 7.9

Second half 0.8

First half mean max: 10.4

Second half mean max: 2.9

First half mean min: 5.3

Second half mean min: -1.4

CET Trackometer

1. 6.0

2. 6.3

3. 7.4

4. 7.8

5. 7.9

6. 7.6

7. 7.7

8. 7.8

9. 7.8

10. 7.9

11. 8.1

12. 8.0

13. 7.9

14. 7.9

15. 7.9

16. 7.7

17. 7.6

18. 7.3

19. 6.9

20. 6.6

21. 6.3

22. 6.1

23. 5.9

24. 5.6

25. 5.4

26. 5.1

27. 4.9

28. 4.7

29. 4.4

30. 4.3

31. 4.2

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Tuesday should be the final mild day for a bit by Wednesday cooler air will be over the UK giving us all some sunshine but cooler temperatures expect 2 more rises max (Tuesday for Monday and Wednesday for Tuesday) to the CET before a gradual drop to the CET from Thursday

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Posted
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE
  • Weather Preferences: ALL WEATHER, NOT THE PETTY POLITICS OF MODS IN THIS SITE
  • Location: ANYWHERE BUT HERE

As per Jackone's request, the updated table of entries is over in the scoring thread. Post 115 above (Village) is not included, not sure if that's a forecast or not, but in any case would be too late (and wrong format).

My January CET forecast was -0.2C below the official average January CET. I tried to clarify it as best I could at the time.

This was it:

Posted 04 January 2013 - 12:57

-0.2C deviation from the January CET average

Edited by Village
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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

I just make up tables, Jackone is in charge and I believe the rules stipulate entries by end of third (with penalties for lateness starting on first). It's also the convention to make predictions in actual values not anomalies in this contest (just FYI).

On another topic, those of us who went above 5 had better jam in all the warmth we can find if we're going to withstand the east winds to come -- but I don't see any crisis yet, a few colder days, then not so cold, CET could still be near 6 C into 15-20th time frame, so all depends on what happens in last third of month.

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Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

Think we will end up about 5.5C up to the 14th.

Normally I wouldn't look beyond that but the 06z would deliver a 2 week period on a par with anything seen in my lifetime (probably about -2C cet) - which would get us down to below sub 2C for January. Quite incredible.

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