January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)

[DR Hosking]

7.8c to 7th

[Summer Sun]

7.8c to 7th

One more possible rise tomorrow for todays temperatures before a decline from Thursday

[BornFromTheVoid]

With a minimum of 8.1C and maxima of around 11C, the CET should be on 8.0C tomorrow

Going by the 12z GFS, the CET should be near

7.7C to the 9th (5.1)

7.3C to the 10th (4.1)

6.9C to the 11th (3.2)

6.5C to the 12th (2.0)

5.9C to the 13th (-1.3)

5.3C to the 14th (-2.6)

4.7C to the 15th (-4.3)

[Great Plum]

Crumbs... That's a sharp decline!

[Relativistic]

With a minimum of 8.1C and maxima of around 11C, the CET should be on 8.0C tomorrow

Going by the 12z GFS, the CET should be near

7.7C to the 9th (5.1)

7.3C to the 10th (4.1)

6.9C to the 11th (3.2)

6.5C to the 12th (2.0)

5.9C to the 13th (-1.3)

5.3C to the 14th (-2.6)

4.7C to the 15th (-4.3)

Wow.

[summer blizzard]

There may be a deity afterall!

1.6C is the number to beat (2010) and a negative number would be nice. Anybody willing to calculate what we need from say the 10th for these.

[Optimus Prime]

2010 registered 1.4c. If it 4.7c by the 15th the rest of the month would need to average -2.0c. Not going to happen.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Provided we're at 7.3C on the 10th, we'd need to average

2.44C/day to reach 4.0C

0.95C/day to reach 3.0C

0.81C/day to reach 2.9C (Top 5 coldest of last 30 Years)

-0.52C/day to reach 2.0C

-1.41C/day to reach 1.4C (2010)

-2.00C/day to reach 1.0C

-3.48C/day to reach 0.0C

-8.05C/day to reach -3.1C (coldest on record)

7.60C/day to reach 7.5C (mildest on record)

[Kentish Man]

On another topic, those of us who went above 5 had better jam in all the warmth we can find if we're going to withstand the east winds to come -- but I don't see any crisis yet, a few colder days, then not so cold, CET could still be near 6 C into 15-20th time frame, so all depends on what happens in last third of month.

This might yet be quite a prescient post given hopes of a longer, more severe cold spell look like they've gone the way of the pear if you believe today's 06z GFS. While the dramatic turnaround, if it proves to be, doesn't surprise me (after all we've been here so many times before - the last disappointment being as recently as last month) we are at least going to have a short cold spell before the potential return of mild. As far as the CET is concerned the above 5's are still very much in the game - indeed it could end up being quite a mild month. Mind you if the ECM verifies instead...

[Kentish Man]

8.0C to the 8th.

[Optimus Prime]

Mean minimum to the 8th was 6.0c which is 5.2c above normal. An incredible anomaly and the mean is now close to what was recorded in the exceptional month of March 2012.

In the past there have been entire Mays averaging close to the first week of this month. Whatever happens with any cold spell this will have been one of the warmest spells of mid winter weather on record.

[Kentish Man]

Hadley is on 7.6C up to the 9th.

[Relativistic]

What are the mildest first 10 days of January on record? Does this month come close?

[Summer Sun]

6.9 to the 10th

[Village]

So another month below average temperatures on the cards.....what a surprise.

[AderynCoch]

What are the mildest first 10 days of January on record? Does this month come close?

8.3C in 1916, which incidentally was also the mildest January (7.5C). This year the first 10 days are provisionally at 6.9C - so actually a fair bit short of the record.

If anyone's interested the coldest first 10 days of January for the CET were in 1814 (-3.0C).

Edited January 11, 2013 by AderynCoch

[Roger J Smith]

The first eight days of Jan 1992 averaged 8.8 C and the last eleven -0.2 C.

[Relativistic]

Thanks for both replies. So we're not near record breaking (thank goodness). And what a contrast in 1992!

[damianslaw]

Thanks for both replies. So we're not near record breaking (thank goodness). And what a contrast in 1992!

Jan 1992 is often a forgotten month, the second half was decidely cold thanks to high pressure with some very cold nights. It was quite similiar to the second half of Dec 92 in many respects. Jan 91 also saw a cold second half cancelled out somewhat by a milder first half but certainly not to the same extent as Jan 92. Mind we've not seen many Jan's since 92 pan out in similiar fashion only Jan 96 which saw a very cold last third. In recent years we've seen very cold starts to Jan cancelled out by milder second halves most notably in 1997, 2002, 2009 and 2010. Last Jan was salvaged from being record warm thanks to the cold tail end.

Many Jan's since 1988 have been preety uniform either persistently mild such as 1988, 89, 90, 93, 95, 98, 99, 00, 03, 05, 07, 08 and 11, or near average with alternating shortlived cold spells and more average milder conditions such as occured in 94, 04 and 06.

I'm liking the way this Jan is shaping up as it is very different to many Jan's we have experienced in a long time - from one extreme to the other..

Could Jan 13 end up similiar to Jan 92, certainly think so, but I think the second half of this Jan could be even colder, I'm expecting only a very temporary minor mild blip if it verifies next weekend, before a very cold last third - oh dear I'd think I've said it now..

[Summer Sun]

6.6 to the 11th

[Weather-history]

22nd December 2012-8th January 2013: 7.8C

Interestingly, we look likely to end up with an exceptionally mild sandwich between two cold ones

29th November-14th December: 2.0C

Edited January 12, 2013 by Weather-history

[summer blizzard]

With a minimum of 8.1C and maxima of around 11C, the CET should be on 8.0C tomorrow

Going by the 12z GFS, the CET should be near

7.7C to the 9th (5.1)

7.3C to the 10th (4.1)

6.9C to the 11th (3.2)

6.5C to the 12th (2.0)

5.9C to the 13th (-1.3)

5.3C to the 14th (-2.6)

4.7C to the 15th (-4.3)

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

6.6C to the 11th so 0.3C below what was predicted.

Have the models moved colder?

[Harve]

http://www.metoffice..._info_mean.html

6.6C to the 11th so 0.3C below what was predicted.

Have the models moved colder?

Perhaps in the short-term, but I don't think minima look low enough for -3/-4c CET days to occur early next week anymore.

[Weather-history]

Jan 1992 is often a forgotten month, the second half was decidely cold thanks to high pressure with some very cold nights.

And for good reason, it was virtually snowless and very little happened. If you are a snow lover then winter 1991-92 is best forgotten! It was the latest date into the season that I saw my first snowfall, 18th February! It was a really boring season.

Edited January 13, 2013 by Weather-history

[Relativistic]

6.2C to the 12th.