Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 03/01/13


Coast

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Some astonishing charts on offer with that last set, it amazes me to see people downbeat! We may end up not getting anything, but today is not the day to be disappointed!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sorry to be a pain was this a sustained cold spell in 85 i remember the 80s winters and there were some cracking winters in this decade.

and was the warming of this winter stronger than the warming projected now?

85 was sustained & awsome-

The warming was the end of Dec 84 but really kicked in Jan 1985

http://www.cpc.ncep....ALL_NH_1985.gif

The height of the warming at 10 HPA looked to be around +24c

post-1235-0-03630000-1357235894_thumb.gi

THe max at the moment projected is +5c- so not quite....

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: East Anglia
  • Location: East Anglia

This is one of those odd periods on the model thread, we are here to discuss what the mode are currently showing but we know they are some way off having a decent handle on the evolution of the bit we are all interested in. Personally I’m just happy that they are starting to show something worth the effort of viewing. One thing I don’t want to see is fantastic synoptically evolutions post 120hrs, because we know that they are always either watered down or disappear altogether before 0hr, just for a change let’s have a bit poor and watery post 120hrs but fantastic at 0hrs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the continued modelling of the main PV lobe into Scandinavia and secondary lobe lifting out of Hudson with solid ridge straddling the Pole, composites for this suggest a blocking signal centred over Iceland. The best analogues for the upper stratosphere right now are 1979. 1982 and 1987.

Stuart 2/3 of your analogues are December Canadian Warming events- Looking at the models the canadian warming is the secondary warming-

Jan 1987 was on my list as was 2002 & 2006 - & 77 as these were all Jan warmings-

S

Edited by Steve Murr
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

BOM T144 much better than previous run

bomnh-0-144.png?12

T168

bomnh-0-168.png?12

T204

bomnh-0-204.png?12

None too shabby and although the BOM not an unlikely solution

T240

bomnh-0-240.png?12

Edited by ChartViewer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Some astonishing charts on offer with that last set, it amazes me to see people downbeat! We may end up not getting anything, but today is not the day to be disappointed!

Yes and expect some of those to show up in the 18z op runs in the next few days.

Latest update to The weathercentre blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.co.uk/

Very promising for some exciting winter weather in parts of the NH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

85 was sustained & awsome-

Just looking at the charts. Very interesting. I'm much too young to remember that but, cold and snowy as it undoubtedly was, it looks like a feline cat compared to 2010 for example. Is that a fair description?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Mind my language but FN HELL!

gensnh-5-1-216.png?12

!

Like I said, some astonishing outputs.

6/7 members again sub -10 and even the ens mean sub -5 in FI. Trends people!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Mind my language but FN HELL!

gensnh-5-1-216.png?12

!

can I bank that one please lol
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Weardale 300m asl

85 was sustained & awsome-

The warming was the end of Dec 84 but really kicked in Jan 1985

http://www.cpc.ncep....ALL_NH_1985.gif

The height of the warming at 10 HPA looked to be around +24c

post-1235-0-03630000-1357235894_thumb.gi

THe max at the moment projected is +5c- so not quite....

S

I remember that was the couple of weeks when the snow was at least 1ft deep near Chichester on the south coast and I drove up South Harting hill in my Triumph Spitfire and only just made it to the top — the snow was literally scraping along its chassis. It was the middle of the night so a bit of a life and death situation… ohmy.png

Yes, I think we can safely say that was sustained cold.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

This Strat warming is certainly bringing us some exciting prospects as we head through Jan, and it's great that we have Ian relaying the Mets background thoughts. Along side the strat experts on here surely we are getting the best possible interpretation of how such strat changes may affect our weather.

Nothing guaranteed, and we should all heed that fact, but if things fall right for us then a proper cold spell may be on the horizon. But whatever transpires it is certainly making for some great winter model watching (right down through the Atmosphere!!)

Edited by chris55
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)

Mind my language but FN HELL!

gensnh-5-1-216.png?12

!

To put another spin on it, it looks like a tallywacker and balls ready to hmmmmm......all over Great Britain!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Quite right, but then again the models may not be far off the mark. I prefer to give them the benefit of the doubt and although it is easy to ignore the micro scale FI charts I do try and reason the long wave patterns, if nothing else but to learn from any mistakes they may make.

CFS is interesting. Siberia and parts of Russia v. cold (Feb): post-14819-0-46225200-1357233687_thumb.p

Obviously cannot be taken too serious, but a trend on the CFS has been to shift the axis of cold from mid-USA to NE Europe. With strong heights:

post-14819-0-64533300-1357233918_thumb.p

But the UK on the wrong side of the block maintaining a westerly flow with significant rainfall: post-14819-0-21959400-1357233949_thumb.p

CFS Anomaly charts of late have not shown the UK getting anything that looks like cold let alone brutal cold. I would have thought the lack of such, for a fluctuating model like the CFS, is significant in itself. Yuk: post-14819-0-56752600-1357234986_thumb.p

GEFS for London: post-14819-0-95666600-1357235178_thumb.g

No real changes there. Mean around seasonal average. Some mild ens and some cold ones. No strong sign of cold, especially if you take out the two early cold outliers.

All well and good posting all those charts, but the SSW event is only just starting to be taken into account. All your doing is taking the CURRENT output at face value and dismissing any change is possible. Its getting very boring now. And in the morning at 4.20am you will be the first to tell us about the poor GFS 0z run again.

Edited by latitude
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

Like I said, some astonishing outputs.

6/7 members again sub -10 and even the ens mean sub -5 in FI. Trends people!

Not that great for the south and still some way off a -5c mean, but some more promising solutions showing up.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=charts;type=ens;sess=

Would like to echo how great it is to have Ian F's regular input with hints from the met office, it really adds to the value of this thread / site

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Mind my language but FN HELL!

gensnh-5-1-216.png?12

!

Looks like the speed of the Earth's rotation may decrease if this comes off! ;) Lovely charts showing up atm, still 9 days away but trends are positive for the time being.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Well the ECM certainly isn't interested in following some of the GFS members and is flattening the pattern by T168.

Looks more like a delay IMO. Hope so anyway!

EDIT: Yeah it's poor actually.

Edited by The Eagle
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Well the ECM certainly isn't interested in following some of the GFS members and is flattening the pattern by T168.

Not sure about that Ian. From a NH perspective it's clear things are on the change

ECH1-168.GIF?03-07

It's not as progressive with the change as the GFS though, I'll grant you that

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...