Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[Craigers]

GFS 00z Still shows the tasty trend of the heights going towards greenland resulting in a nice NE to Easterly!

Which ties in with what Matt Hugo is saying for the 2nd half of the month!

[Duane S.]

Both the ECM and GEFS ens seem to be entertaining two school of thoughts mid-term. One leading to cold the other to something more westerly driven. The good news is that (without seeing today's ECM 00z's yet) the majority seem to favour retrogression to Greenland, lower heights over Europe and thus the colder option.

Can we weight anything on the fact that the operationals at the moment are not so keen and siding with the minority consensus? Answers on a postcard...

Nicely poised for one heck o a ride going through the rest of January though I suspect.

Edited January 8, 2013 by s4lancia

[Ian Brown]

Thanks Matt for the update on the 32 dayer, however we are still waiting for these positive height anomalies near Greenland after the model first showed them in November so I'm not holding my breath on that one.

Disappointing output this morning. You have to feel that the ECM is onto something with how it is handling the jet off the Seaboard, it was the first model to pick up on the late November LP development that scuppered the potential NEasterly.

The GFS is OK but it's absolute fine margins at the crucial time frame and another minor shift sees that go the way of the ECM. Ensembles are OK.

[That ECM]

The ECM is consistently inconsistent on the whole. However, the last couple of runs need to be taken seriously. Not a done deal but a concern for the cold lovers.

We need heights to build in the north west or a flatter pattern will be the outcome.

[Iceni]

Darn it. My 3 month netweather subscription runs out on the very day that SSW I should have materialised and we get the projected goods, 20th Jan. Clever chaps these websters.

[Rollo]

I think we all agree this is a finely balanced situation and clearly someone is going to be wrong but as I said earlier this is unlikely to be decided for a few days yet.Lets hope Matt Hugo is right.

[Ian Brown]

I would just be very surprised if the ECM's broad Atlantic pattern is not correct at T144. NOGAPS also goes this way. I just think that is one of those winters where the NAO will simply not play ball despite whatever other signals there may be.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Ian Brown

[mountain shadow]

That ECM is a big blow. Its the best model and two op runs in a row have flattened the pattern. Add on what MOGREPS is showing and i think we could be on a failed snowy spell again.

That doesnt of course mean that we dont see better impact from the SSW in February .

[Weathizard]

Frustrating really, longer term things are looking alright but its been the same old story really in the reliable we had -8 uppers over the majority of the UK for a good 3 days had big support from the ENS (I think at one point there was no ensemble members above -4 for the 13'th, now a shortwave comes along in the reliable timeframe and scuppers everything! I don't think we are getting any further in our search for cold at the moment, I'm still positive about the rest of winter but every time we get a cold spell in reliable timeframe it folds because of a shortwave! And now it seems as though we are chasing medium range again!

Not a moan just the truth.

[Timmytour]

It's very much on a knife edge and the way small swings have a large effect on the UK is displayed to good effect this morning. Last night the views from the top of the rollercoaster were great. This morning the inevitable fall but who knows.... gearing up for another climb?

Personally I remain hopeful we are in for something special but concerned that we may see a succession of lovely looking FI projections that evaporate as the effects of the SSW come into play

[yukichon]

I'm an avid watcher and that's it. My forecasting knowledge is non existent, but after following this tread for a couple of years I have worked out a good forecasting technique: if it's winter and the models show an easterly or a pronged cold spell- it will change for the worse .....there's my forecast lol

[Gustywind]

Pretty sure Ian it was the GFS not the ECM that first broke coldies hearts back in early December, the ECM only belatedly followed and also of course produced that epic run. The ECM appears to me to have very much followed the GFS this winter, so I would still put this at 50:50.

The ECM has been poor this winter whenever we've seen a potential change away from mild.

[thesnowman]

.. 50%/75% downgrade on GFS this morning - the reluctance to develop and easterly worth anything is quite startling - if anything the re establishment of high pressure to the West of Iberia looks more likely now - and what does this mean - MILD and WET, all likely it appear around days 5 to 7.

What a miserable outlook in the medium term. Longterm - to be ignored - bases on winter so far...

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul
Removed unrelated and overly dramatic comments

[Ian Brown]

Pretty sure Ian it was the GFS not the ECM that first broke coldies hearts back in early December, the ECM only belatedly followed and also of course produced that epic run. The ECM appears to me to have very much followed the GFS this winter, so I would still put this at 50:50.

The ECM has been poor this winter whenever we've seen a potential change away from mild.

No it was the ECM that first picked up the shortwave off Southern Greenland in late November. The GFS was first to show the Norwegian shortwave in December that scuppered the Easterly.

Just really disappointed for everybody, let's see what Ian F has to say and see if the METO change their outlooks later.

[Sunny Kent]

As a real novice here, I just don't understand how 6 hours can make all the difference. Last night most posters were bullish and this morning you'd think the whole think had be cancelled. Just doesn't make sense to the casual reader.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Sunny Kent

[mountain shadow]

Can those anomaly charts really be so wrong though? Drawn by Professionals i believe.

[Paul]

As a real novice here, I just don't understand hwo 6 hours can make all the difference. Last night most posters were bullish and this morning you'd think the whole think had be cancelled. Just doesn't make sense to the casual reader.

It's because some members appear to invest 100% of their weather emotion on every run which appears, so they end up going up and down like yoyos must be quite draining really!

The truth of it is though that the models are moving about a fair bit at the moment, the operationals are often outliers against their ensemble suites and different scenarios are coming up each run, and with each model type. Possibly (probably?) this is down to the models struggling to get to grips with the changes in the stratosphere, so therefore the best thing to do is to take each run with a pinch of salt and wait for more consistency before taking a firm judgement.

[southbank]

you can see that the GFS 0z follows on from the 18Z from the T+192 -240 period ( I know its FI unlikely to verify but trends is what i am looking for) with regards to a more amplified ridge in the pacific really feeding warm air into the canada

These seem more in line with the 500 anaomaly charts thatChartviewer posted yesterday

The ECM has less of a ridge in the pacific thus a flatter pattern across the US and the effects are seen here

I believe the GFS shows more of what GP was thinking yesterday

Have to wait and see if the ECM falls more into line , THe time period for cold weather was always mid month onwards which sadly is still in the FI land so wild changes still a foot

I just hope the GFS trend is right along with the 500 anaomaly charts & GP forecast as its been a torrid winter so far

Keep the faith , Im hoping Yamkin will be giving us flash reports from the council gritters from the 22 Jan onwards !!!

Edited January 8, 2013 by southbank

[PubliusEnigma]

Will be interesting to hear what Ian F has to say on the GFS / ECM downgrades Maybe this is why the MO outlook has continued to stress great uncertainty in the outlook where any possibility of cooler weather was concerned.

[Nick F]

I would just be very surprised if the ECM's broad Atlantic pattern is not correct at T144. NOGAPS also goes this way. I just think that is one of those winters where the NAO will simply not play ball despite whatever other signals there may be.

I think the ECM det is too much of wild card at t+144 to have confidence in it being correct, it has no support from GFS, UKMO and GEM this morning, though overall confidence in any of the models being correct at t+144 is low IMO - given the big scatter that develops in the 00z GEFS weekend onwards.

8-10 day H500 comparisons between the 00z EC and GFS ops shows nicely the differences of the flatter EC and the more meridional GFS:

[Southern Storm]

Can those anomaly charts really be so wrong though? Drawn by Professionals i believe.

I think they are a good tool most of the time, but you only have to look back to the last

Let down to see that they can get it very wrong.

Let's hope we get lucky this time!

Edited January 8, 2013 by thunderman24

[doctormog]

No it was the ECM that first picked up the shortwave off Southern Greenland in late November. The GFS was first to show the Norwegian shortwave in December that scuppered the Easterly.

Just really disappointed for everybody, let's see what Ian F has to say and see if the METO change tiheir outlooks later.

Ian, didn't you mention that you think the GFS handles heights over Greenland better than the ECM run?

Edited January 8, 2013 by doctormog

[MR EXTREMES]

to be fair ian b i do think the fi chart on the ecm does have possiblility of being a good chart

[Barry12]

One thing I've noticed is that all the time the cold seem's to be 6 days away, and is pushed further and further back. Now people are saying next week for cold, what are the chances that next wel it will be another week.

[It Might Snow]

No it was the ECM that first picked up the shortwave off Southern Greenland in late November. The GFS was first to show the Norwegian shortwave in December that scuppered the Easterly.

Just really disappointed for everybody, let's see what Ian F has to say and see if the METO change their outlooks later.

Good morning Ian, I hope Ian F does not mind me using his post from last night, but if you read this and also consider Matt Hugo's post this morning I think they provide a much more balanced veiw than reacting to one or two poor model runs which we have been constantly warned will be all over the place for some time.

#1381 fergieweather

Posted Today, 00:28

POPULAR

Very latest UKMO guidance just issued goes for the cold/v cold story predominanting into next week with potential sequence of battleground set-ups of snow to rain and back again in W/SW ; heavy snow potentially in any region; perhaps with a temporary relaxation of pattern but return of cold thereafter (MOGREPS keeping a N'rly well into 10-15d trend period)

Edited January 8, 2013 by Gmax