Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards

[bradymk]

Sorry but that update will soon be very out of date, and will not carry on the very cold snowy theme.

Noone knows what the 00z guidance will be, in my opinion, a fair call this morning would be cold weekend/start next week followed by less cold for a time (not mild) until final third of the month where potential for v cold increases due to SSW influences. But the potential for it also to stay cold through next week also but uncertainty. Personally i dont think it will be mild next week but not very cold either with coldest conditions in eastern areas. Last night 12z guidance did say the potential for a relaxtion to a milder period before chance of v cold weather increases again later. And like PM said, CPC charts back this up of cold, not so cold, potentially very cold later. Edited January 8, 2013 by bradythemole

[Ian Brown]

I think we can expect to see the GFS fall into line with lower heights towards Greenland with the Azores High ridging across us over it’s subsequent runs today.

The METO may choose to continue to stress the uncertainty today before switching their outlooks to mild and wetter tomorrow, with the associated flooding issues that that is going to bring.

[mcweather]

Tell that to the METO who are possibly about to change their outlook from cold and snowy last night to something more mild this morning.

Sorry but that update will soon be very out of date, and will not carry on the very cold snowy theme.

Would be helpful if you could back up this statement with a professional source.

[Dexter29]

This cold 'snap' at the weekend has always been progged to be a short lived affair when it showed up in the modelling a few days ago and then a return to Atlantic driven scenarios for a week or so. The SSW event will have an effect at the surface around the 15th then the fun and games will commence.

No it never.

4/5 days ago there were easterly winds with -8 uppers right over to western areas with fairly heavy snowfall showing up for this weekend.This consistency was for around 2 days (I think) on the ECM and GFS and early next week was showing more blocking.

As we are now 5 days away we have a much watered down version (as is always the case) with -5 uppers approaching, having said that the threat of snow is still there for this weekend.

[TEITS]

Whilst everyone is worrying about FI the 06Z at +72 continues to show the trend of the HP moving further W.

[latitude]

The Key word in all of this is Patience!

I know its been a hard first half of winter if it is Snow and Frost you like, but this was always going to play out like this, in fact this weekends colder blip is surely a bonus, most long range forecasts pointed towards an interesting 2nd half to January and Cold February, the point of Interest for me as has always been is the last 10 days of January and into February, which would fit in nicely with this cool down into the weekend, not so cold next week and then maybe the fun begins from the w/k of the 20th/21st January!

Sorry but I totally disagree with your point. Forget the SSW that is supposed to been at the end of Jan into Feb.

Right now normal winter fare could be on offer. Cold or very cold, that's what can happen in the winter (we dont need SSW for that).

We are discussing the current model output, which shows possible cold and snow for the UK..........your pinning your hopes on something that may not effect the UK (SSW), right now we see a pattern that has a good chance of producing cold and some snow for the lucky.

Its like 'oh well, lets get this cold blip out the way and wait for the end of Jan'. No thanks, the here and now is what we should be interested in.

Edited January 8, 2013 by latitude

[That ECM]

I think people are becoming overly obsessed with MOGREPS and the ECM 32dayer.

When you think about it they are just as likely to be wrong at day ten and onwards as the normal ensembles we see.

They don't have some magic start conditions that make them any better. We've been here before with both of those hope combos as I'd like to call them with the subsequent mood crashes in here if MOGREPS or the ECM 32dayer suggest a less than exciting wintry outlook.

The best outputs are the higher resolution operational runs upto 168hrs with at least medium term trends being picked up by day ten, yes currently they disagree but in these situations its best to try and build up a picture from earlier rather than looking for snow salvation at some outlandish timeframe.

All the outputs have early potential, we'll get to the right trend at some point, it might not be the one we want or it well might be!

I think people are becoming overly obsessed. What some crave is clarity yet the output shows anything but. If you take the Meto current forecast, no strong signal moving forward and lots of uncertainty. That's from people who are good at this. Then you look at GFS, ECM etc. showing a multitude of options.

Often human nature is to pick something and go with, that's because people don't like uncertainty. They would rather guess than just think that there is insufficient evidence or consistency to make a judgement. If the professionals are saying lets wait and see what emerges then I think that's what we have to do if we wish to be pragmatic.

Either way it is edge of your seat viewing if you prefer one type of weather over another.

[TEITS]

As we are now 5 days away we have a much watered down version (as is always the case) with -5 uppers approaching, having said that the threat of snow is still there for this weekend.

Actually thats wrong. Around 4-5 days ago the GEFS mean for my location was around -3C and now stands at -8C and in my opinion this weekend into early next week still has the potential to be upgraded further.

[weather eater]

Something must be going on clicking through the start of the GFS 06z run and its gone psychedelic, at least for one frame.

Edited January 8, 2013 by weather eater

[NL]

No it never.

4/5 days ago there were easterly winds with -8 uppers right over to western areas with fairly heavy snowfall showing up for this weekend.This consistency was for around 2 days (I think) on the ECM and GFS and early next week was showing more blocking.

As we are now 5 days away we have a much watered down version (as is always the case) with -5 uppers approaching, having said that the threat of snow is still there for this weekend.

Two days is not consistant, thats only two runs as everyone should know that run for run (0z to 0z, 6z to 6z etc) should be observed. As Paul S has posted above this weekend cold 'blip' is an added bonus. (If you like cold weather)

Edited January 8, 2013 by NL

[Paul Sherman]

Sorry but I totally disagree with your point. Forget the SSW that is supposed to been at the end of Jan into Feb.

Right now normal winter fare could be on offer. Cold or very cold, that's what can happen in the winter (we dont need SSW for that).

We are discussing the current model output, which shows possible cold and snow for the UK..........your pinning your hopes on something that may not effect the UK (SSW), right now we see a pattern that has a good chance of producing cold and some snow for the lucky.

Its like 'oh well, lets get this cold blip out the way and wait for the end of Jan'. No thanks, the here and now is what we should be interested in.

Sorry where did I mention the SSW in my post ??

Care to enlighten me please ?

My post was based on what I feel will happen with regards to the LP Moving SE Over the weekend introducing a brief colder window before a less cold (Note NOT Mild) period ensues and then a possibility of much colder weather further down the line.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[Dexter29]

Two days is not consistant, thats only two runs as everyone should know that run for run (0z to 0z, 6z to 6z etc) should be observed. As Paul S has posted above this weekend cold 'blip' is an added bonus. (If you like cold weather)

Believe me, the topsy turvey models of late.

2 days of models showing the same pattern is very Consistent!

Added bonus to what? A SSW that's had no effect on our weather patterns yet?

I am more interested in a normal cold weather potential that every winter throws at us for this coming weekend, not something that's out in FI and looking for something that hasn't even been played out yet. (SSW)

Edited January 8, 2013 by Dexter29

[latitude]

Sorry where did I mention the SSW in my post ??

Care to enlighten me please ?

Quote "most long range forecasts pointed towards an interesting 2nd half to January and Cold February, the point of Interest for me as has always been is the last 10 days of January and into February, which would fit in nicely with this cool down into the weekend, not so cold next week and then maybe the fun begins from the w/k of the 20th/21st January!"

LRF all based on the SSW of the Strat.

[phil nw.]

The Dutch ens

I just had a quick glance at the latest Ht Anomls from the 00z ens and really nothing has changed.

Both sets go for Higher pressure ridging towards Iceland and low pressure over Europe by day 10.

Maybe GFS slightly more bullish on the strength of the -NAO.

I havent time to do a full download of images as on my way out but i would say ECM Op still not in tune with other outputs for next week.

[Captain Shortwave]

Believe me, the topsy turvey models of late.

2 days of models showing the same pattern is very Consistent!

It was only a couple of days back where the ECM produced two well supported charts on the bounce that showed a scandi high retrogressing to a greenland high very quickly. Well as soon as the GFS went against this as Ian Brown said would happen at the time it did.

Same story, two ECM runs on the bounce show similar things but without the major support of it's assembles. I'm not buying that sort of consistency. Lets see what the 6z GFS comes up with

[Paul Sherman]

Quote "most long range forecasts pointed towards an interesting 2nd half to January and Cold February, the point of Interest for me as has always been is the last 10 days of January and into February, which would fit in nicely with this cool down into the weekend, not so cold next week and then maybe the fun begins from the w/k of the 20th/21st January!"

LRF all based on the SSW of the Strat.

Ah right

So I said LRF Based on the SSW Of the Strat

Your not a politician are you ??

In all honesty I have not even looked at the Strat thread once, and do not know if this has a bearing on our weather weeks down the line, but have been looking at the Models on here since 2003 so I might have a very vague idea of patterns upcoming

Edited January 8, 2013 by Paul Sherman

[Paul]

Just for the avoidance of doubt, this is the model thread so please can we stick to what's actually in the output.

What that doesn't include is proclamations that the next run or model type to be issued will definitely be x,y or z, or telling us with certainty what a forecast update from the met or wherever else is going to contain.

The models are volatile right now, we all see that - so really all those claiming to have some sort of inside knowledge or mystic meg ability to see with such certainty into the future are not adding anything to the thread, and are also doing a very good job of damaging their own credibility...

[AWD]

Apologies if this is obvious, but I'm a little confused here.

Are all the EC output models/ensemble program's not inter-linked?

Isn't the ECM Op & EC 32 Dayer for example, based on the same computer program?

The EC 32 Dayer is showing height rises over Greenland whilst the EC NWP suite shows low heights over Greenland! Then, as has just been posted in the Strat thread, the EC extended ens show a split vortex, not reforming.

How can the same model brand come up with widely different solutions?

[Weathizard]

120 GFS:

120 ECM

Looking very similar? Bar the much lower heights over Iceland on the ECM.

Edited January 8, 2013 by Weathizard

[TEITS]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1261.png

[jimbo36]

Quote "most long range forecasts pointed towards an interesting 2nd half to January and Cold February, the point of Interest for me as has always been is the last 10 days of January and into February, which would fit in nicely with this cool down into the weekend, not so cold next week and then maybe the fun begins from the w/k of the 20th/21st January!"

LRF all based on the SSW of the Strat.

Sorry Latitude but not one mention of SSW in Paul Shermans post that i can see. The models as he says correctly point to a cooler time from this weekend, but the real interest is the 2nd half of January.

Nothing of any real interest for the coldy fans from the models just yet, but if it's a slight frost that floats your boat, then be my guest and jump up and down excitedly

[Rocheydub]

How can the same model brand come up with widely different solutions?

I know the why... It's simply to drive us nuts....

There are differing inputs in the 32 dayer etc, info gathered over a greater time span etc, equals differing variable outputs...

[UV-RAY]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

Indeed, though I would think more like rain/sleet for those further South? Edited January 8, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Timmytour]

Interesting GFS rolling out.....do i see the welcome prospect of tha all important signs of an Atlantic swan flying north west coming up?

[Steady Easterly]

Everyone is so preoccupied with the medium range nobody has mentioned the 06Z is suggesting snow on Sunday spreading SE from the NW.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png

Indeed,

the coming weekend is as far as anyone should be looking, beyond then and anything really could happen, the models are all over the place and obviously struggling with the current patterns.