Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Ian F's weather update. The last minute is worth the watch for the entire UK, such an excellent forecast, professional as you're going to get,

http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/news/newsid_7760000/7760862.stm

brilliantly delivered. Why can't all weather forecasts for all regions be as good as this. So informative.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip
  • Location: Middlesex, Ruislip

It's a shame the rest of the forecasters can't be like him; professional, tidy & doesn't dumb it down completely, even goes into Met Office thoughts at the end there. Wish our regional forecaster was half as good.

Have to agree. That's what I want to see in a forecast. Detail, prognosis and clarity. With a touch of advisory caution aka 'get out of jail free card'.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

can anybody give me roughtly the chances of seeing the whitestuff in south east wales this weekend after these amazing model outputs?? help.gif

amazing Day of model watching best i can remember!!

Just wish the M office would back these charts up with some sort of forecast!! fool.gif

If the 00z's are anything like as good, they will. And next week they might possibly even mention the word snow instead of wintry showersbiggrin.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Now. Whats the odds on the pub run jumping ship now just as we get cross model agreement?

Crucial overnight runs coming up. We need to see solid follow up runs from ALL. The depth of cold could poss reduce from what we are seeing now. That is ok. What we dont want to see is anymore real wobbles and hints of an Atlantic surge or any shortwave dramas.

Fingers crossed. We are so close to a noteable cold spell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Brilliant. The great thing about Ian is that he presents the forecast as though he knows we're actually interested in weather. If only we had anyone half as good on South today.

tell me about it, the worst Regional forecasters by some distance, I travel the UK a lot, majority of them put South Today to shame, script reading sums it up.

Models looking amazing

Sorry Mods

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Other forecasters really need to start taking note. Ians forecasts are easily some of the best I've seen!

that was a great informative ending to that forecast.we need Ian on meridian tonight :-)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dagenham East
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Drifting Snow in easterly winds, biting wind chill!
  • Location: Dagenham East

Ian F's weather update. The last minute is worth the watch for the entire UK, such an excellent forecast, professional as you're going to get,

http://news.bbc.co.u...000/7760862.stm

Now that's a proper forecast!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

What snow for south east do people think??

Welcome to NW, Ben...Please can you pop your location into your profile?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and more snow
  • Location: Shanklin, isle of wight

Ok not long til pub run.surely the trend will continue! Thoughts anyone? Where could it possibly go wrong?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

18Z checklist:

Meteociel NH GFS 500 hPa charts open - √

Wetterzentrale 500hPa and 850 temps open - √

NW extra strat charts 10hPa, 30 hPa and 100hPa open - √

NW model thread ready - √

Cup of tea - √

Delete button - √

Right I am all set. Off in 10.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

odd outputs from ec-gfs today, the 00z showed little support for the runs of previous days with little in the way of blocking in spite of NOAA last evening showing a block holding. The 12 version is almost identical to the latest and recent NOAA outputs showing a block in place and in much the same area as NOAA-very odd.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire
  • Location: Scarborough, North Yorkshire

18Z checklist:

Meteociel NH GFS 500 hPa charts open - √

Wetterzentrale 500hPa and 850 temps open - √

NW extra strat charts 10hPa, 30 hPa and 100hPa open - √

NW model thread ready - √

Cup of tea - √

Delete button - √

Right I am all set. Off in 10.

Lol. Very good. What an exciting and stressful time to be a mod :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The BBC's longer range forecast is now on board with light snow forecast for Sunday in Darlington

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2651513?day=4

I still advice caution but things are slowly clicking into place

Matt Hugo's tweets tonight

12Z EC ENS now on board. EC clusters definitely more grouped around the blocking pattern. Hence EC ENS support the UKMO, GFS, ECM Det models

We're getting there but another 12 or 24hrs of model runs for me. Still, some of the 12z EC clusters are mouthwatering!

Your telling me there is actually support for the Det???†Yes, EC Det fits almost right down the middle of the ensembles.

The GFS ensembles are also in high agreement of a significant cold spell from the 13th to 16th with nearly all members at -10 beyond that as you would would expect there's a fair amount of scatter

MT8_London_ens.png?6767676767

MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png?6767676767

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.

Ok not long til pub run.surely the trend will continue! Thoughts anyone? Where could it possibly go wrong?

That low west of Ireland sliding SE this weekend is the key. And we don't want any shortwave dramas around Greenland scuppering the WAA. We clear those points and it looks game on. Plenty more that can go wrong I suspect, but they are the keys to opening the fridge IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Only way the CMA is going at T168 and it aint mild....just before the 18z comes out

144

cmanh-0-144.png?12

168

cmanh-0-168.png?12

Edited by ChartViewer
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted · Hidden by Methuselah, January 8, 2013 - Not model-related.
Hidden by Methuselah, January 8, 2013 - Not model-related.

Hopefully bucket loads of snow this weekend and not c**t lol!

Link to comment

Something from yesteryear on these type of patterns-

With these lows the historic tendancy is to ALWAYS model them to far East- usually in the last T72 timeframe we see some backing west of the cold pool which is something to look for tonight-

especially of you live in the SW hoping to see some snow.....

S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

There's the split still evident...

Yes that looks fine although its a shame it only goes out to 84hrs, we would have liked to see another 24hrs.

The extension of the NAM is the DGEX to 192hrs but that hasn't updated yet. I don't normally wheel these models out but you'd think a mesoscale model primed at the USA would at least be able to get the jet right at that earliesh timeframe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire

Yes that looks fine although its a shame it only goes out to 84hrs, we would have liked to see another 24hrs.

The extension of the NAM is the DGEX to 192hrs but that hasn't updated yet. I don't normally wheel these models out but you'd think a mesoscale model primed at the USA would at least be able to get the jet right at that earliesh timeframe.

I do like the way the big three, ECM, UKMO, GFS, all agree and yet we are all still cautious and looking for other models/more evidence that this will actually happen. Funny that some of us in here have been bitten in the past. If these three models agreed as they do now, a few years ago, we would all be ramping like mad right now rofl.gif

edit: and of course, Ian (and a certain WIB) would be fighting against the cold right up to T+0 !

Edited by Wayneywoo
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ianf Just posted over on SW Regional - prep yourselves for a downgrade sad.png

"PS latest UKMO analysis just received doesn't - on face value - look very wintry at all for most of southern England through weekend - exception being E districts /E Anglia / SE on Sunday and potential for some leading and back edge falls later Sat and again Sun, but UKMO v uncertain on N'ward extent to this. Monday mostly dry in their prog with exception of snow in far SE. Their modified GM fields looks nowhere near as snow-bound as the raw GFS indicated, for example, but take with suitable salt pinch.... will probably see MOGREPS and other snow probs etc later this eve."

well in the south west at least...

Edited by lukusdukus
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

18Z checklist:

Meteociel NH GFS 500 hPa charts open - √

Wetterzentrale 500hPa and 850 temps open - √

NW extra strat charts 10hPa, 30 hPa and 100hPa open - √

NW model thread ready - √

Cup of tea - √

Delete button - √

Right I am all set. Off in 10.

It's a good job I put that delete button on the list.

Come on everyone this isn't the chat room although that is open. At least try and disguise your post with some model output in it!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...