Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).

[karlos1983]

Be happy if I wake up tomorrow and this is still the same on the 00z, then +120, +144, +168 etc, and if matched by ECM and UKMO, I'll begin to relax.

[Jayces]

Less cold for the South & SW on Saturday meaning more rain to snow through the day instead of starting as snow compared to the 12z when you look at the precip and temp charts, something Ian alluded too I think?

[LomondSnowstorm]

Slightly better run for Scotland and the northeast of England in the short term:

Main thing is very little macroscale changes up to +96.

[Stour7]

Haven't posted on this thread before, have been on the midlands regional thread for a couple of years, I've followed this thread and the strat thread since November, if you read the strat thread alongside this thread it's amazing to see that what the likes of chiono said is now happening, and weve only just begun to see the effects of the ssw, I take my hat of to you guys :-)

On a slightly off topic note this thread has made amazing reading & has improved my understanding of "the weather" but I must say the way some of you post on here regarding each other is shocking, show some respect,

Lastly fingers crossed for the next few days/weeks :-)

[Dampdorset82]

The snowfest for parts of the S still on for Saturday

Not for oxford south its not. Temps are actually 4c higher for that region than the 12z compared to the 18z so rain here im afraid......on this run

[ChartViewer]

CMA192

[ITSY]

split Jet, easterly feed, 1035mb hp developing north towards Greenie, hp over scandi and snow for many s/sw/se/c/e areas of england...and all before T+100. AGAIN.

[Harsh Climate]

azores ridge stretching towards greenland not as far north on this run, upto 180h will probably be not as good on this run as 12z..

Edited January 8, 2013 by Harsh Climate

[Paul T]

12z to 18z difference in terms of snow potential for saturday:

The upper 850's are slightly higher - around 1 or 2 oc for much of England and Wales, hence Ian F's conern earlier.

However, this is purely part of the game...a shift of the low further south and it all changes. no need to worry - main point is that there is a vast amount of PPN over Wales and parts of England with temps being from 0-3/4oC....we are in the game at least!

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010818/gfsnh-0-108.png?18

Split flow western tip of greenland-

also slightly lower heights into the east of the UK- = more snow risk

S

[DanDorsetUK]

Less cold for the South & SW on Saturday meaning more rain to snow through the day instead of starting as snow compared to the 12z when you look at the precip and temp charts, something Ian alluded too I think?

Yeh looks like the cold wont quite make it on time to meet up!

[Bristawl Si]

Not for oxford south its not. Temps are actually 4c higher for that region than the 12z compared to the 18z so rain here im afraid......on this run

And this ties in with Ian F's latest comments in the SW & South thread in last 30 mins.

[Paul]

For those who may be new - you can follow the major models here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

If you're after a local snow risk forecast you can view it here:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=snowforecast;sess=

[cold snap]

Identical at 120 to 12z

[chionomaniac]

You can hardly fit a piece of tracing paper between this run and the previous. Great consistency when we need it!

[weather_it_will]

I don't see any significant downgrade that someone mentioned earlier. (Somebody must be having a laugh)

[TheBigFreeze]

http://modeles.meteo...nh-0-108.png?18

Split flow western tip of greenland-

also slightly lower heights into the east of the UK- = more snow risk

S

so its looking good for east anglia then?? been following this thread with interest.....would like to add a thank you to all posters, i have learnt so much reading through the posts

[Met4Cast]

Guys seriously - Looking at Precip type beyond T72 is pointless, even with T72 we're likely to see changes. Don't worry about it, when it comes into range of the High Res models we'll have a better idea.

All looks good so far to me

[BARRY]

well snow in the forecast at 108z for us

[Ice Day]

Fabulous 850 uppers at just T120. Oh, and 1421 users online....is this a record?

[SMU]

1. http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013010818/gfs-2-120.png?18
   

Watch that bowling ball of ppn to the NW of scotland- should sink across us as snow-

S

[liam300]

Less cold for the South & SW on Saturday meaning more rain to snow through the day instead of starting as snow compared to the 12z when you look at the precip and temp charts, something Ian alluded too I think?

Why is this?

Is it the influence of the jet stream?

[Floatylight]

You can hardly fit a piece of tracing paper between this run and the previous. Great consistency when we need it!

funny that i said rizla !

[cold snap]

Dont worry if you don't see the well known guys and girls posting this is identical to gfs from earlier so far

[Dampdorset82]

And this ties in with Ian F's latest comments in the SW & South thread in last 30 mins.

Havent seen that yet....I will have a look thanks for the heads up!