South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 9th 2013>

[Paul Sherman]

I was going to post this in the infant (sorry - model) thread...

ECM, UKMO, ECM ensembles, ECM 32 dayer, ECM seasonal model, GEM, the met, the fax charts the GFS ensemble mean, the Russian, Chinese and Brazilian models - even the NOGAPS v GFS - I'm not worried... Cold weather will come!

You forgot the most important one - MOGREPS!

Now that model was firmly WITH GFS In december, now it is not!

[80sWeather]

hi guys

please read my fax updates for sturday sunday and monday

gfs after 120 is as reliable as my job at present

Mondays fax looks good,cold air entrenched over UK (528 dam over western parts). As long as the low dives S then we are in luck.

[Jimmy0127]

Sunday morning looks interesting. Deepening pressure gradient might mean lower 850s, and there's moisture there. 10cm in London wouldn't surprise me.

[Great Plum]

You forgot the most important one - MOGREPS!

Now that model was firmly WITH GFS In december, now it is not!

I knew I'd forgotten another acronym!

[Snowman31]

Sick of these models. As soon as one joins the party the other one decides to leave. Is it too much too ask for agreement a such a short time.

[john pike]

hi jayces

i understand your caution

however check mondays fax chart

see whats coming from the east

i will bet with you gfs will revert slowy towards ecm on the 00z run

and gradually run on line with it by 18z tomorrow night

thats my thoughts anyway

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=314&y=146&run=18&runpara=0&type=0&ext=1

check gfs at 16th-thick balck line

[Dexter29]

18z not playing ball :-(

On a happier note-

ECM London Ens:

The op is frigid: London gets nearly 20cm of Snow on Monday!

Wowsa....

[Cirrusly Snowy]

18z not playing ball :-(

On a happier note-

ECM London Ens:

The op is frigid: London gets nearly 20cm of Snow on Monday!

Wowsa....

Where you seeing that? Link please mate

[Dexter29]

Where you seeing that? Link please mate

Here you go:

http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

[msx999]

really don't need snow on sunday - Sunday night (after 8pm) onwards will do me just fine...

[Snowangel-North]

For those not going into the MOD here is a popular post from Ian F:

Interesting snow distribution/amounts prognosis from UKMO for Sat from UK4 and areal probability for Mon via EC & MOGREPS. Sorry I can't share these but suspect quite a few will be happy with Sat output, e.g. Cotswolds, Salisbury Plain, W Downs etc.... but we await NAE and UKV with interest. Monday much lower confidence of course, but potentially higher impact based on > 5cm snow progs from both EC and MOGREPS. Chief is stressing how models regularly struggle historically with developments that evolve from Greenland and that's why we are seeing such divergent solutions

[Snowangel-North]

Erm, everything seems to have disappeared from the left sidebars. Am I missing summat here guys?

The members locations are switched off at the moment to save resources; it maybe a good idea for everyone to add their location to their signature as there will no doubt be loads of posts reporting snowfall in the next few days and it’s nice to know where everyone is located.

......for anyone not sure how to do this go to Edit Profile, Signature, Edit and Save !

[msx999]

when (if at all) will the regional threads be seperated?

[yamkin]

The famous Joe B has quoted the following: 'Cold wave in Asia and Europe may be worst in half a century and cause major economic and human hardships'

Unquote: Below is the mean temperature average. UK will also be hit hard

[lottiekent]

when (if at all) will the regional threads be seperated?

I hope they aren't...I like how we all interact in here! Be a shame to split us up.

[big jay]

Well well, looks like winter will be back with a bang, the majority of us love snow, I love the stuff,like a little kid. Serious questions ,I have a wedding in bath on Saturday,travelling back Sunday , seriously thinking of cancelling , or comin back satuday night.peoplesmthoughts and advise please

[Snowangel-North]

when (if at all) will the regional threads be seperated?

It's being monitored and we will see how it goes but the opinion of the forum team is that the large SE & EA thread works really well, so for now things will probably stay as they are, it's easier for us to moderate; also there is a good atmosphere in here so it would be a shame to split it unless we have to !

[Guest archiesmummy]

18z not playing ball :-(

On a happier note-

ECM London Ens:

The op is frigid: London gets nearly 20cm of Snow on Monday!

Wowsa....

Everything will fall into line you watch!

[lottiekent]

It's being monitored and we will see how it goes but the opinion of the forum team is that the large SE & EA thread works really well, so for now things will probably stay as they are, it's easier for us to moderate; also there is a good atmosphere in here so it would be a shame to split it unless we have to !

Yay! As I said above, this thread has a nice feel to it that has kept ticking long all throughout even the boring weather

[msx999]

it does make it faster paced - but when the snow comes it's always nice to pop through diferent forums to see how the snow is getting closer and closer...

[john pike]

heres my ramp run

p 4

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=6&carte=0&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=192&carte=0&mode=2

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=6&carte=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=6&carte=0&mode=1

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=4&ech=192&carte=0&mode=1

screen grab from it

another channel low

[Planet Stow]

-2 in east London at the moment!

[Kentspur]

Was it meant to be this cold tonight?

[john pike]

this is why i feel gfs is wrong at present

look at the 16th

the thick green run shoots up and by the 18th it hits 5 degree uppers

now look at the white line for the temperature mean

this stays below average for the entire run

also note the spread on the 16th 13 degrees difference

yesterday the mean for the 15th was -5

it is now -8

also ecm ensembles showed a much better agreement

still happy

[blackprince]

It's being monitored and we will see how it goes but the opinion of the forum team is that the large SE & EA thread works really well, so for now things will probably stay as they are, it's easier for us to moderate; also there is a good atmosphere in here so it would be a shame to split it unless we have to !

I agree there is always a good tempered banter on here (unlike the model watchers) and as it looks like we all will see something winter like, so reading posts adjacent our areas keeps everyone updated and looking out the window,we also have a great bunch of Mods who keep us all in line,roll on the next snowy session.