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South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - January 11th 2013>


Snowangel-MK

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Morning all :) just a little ramp from me to remind people that snow is VERY difficult to predict, so if things don't currently look favourable, it might do nearer the time.

Got a physio appt at the same time the 06z due out - booo :(

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Worth looking at the ens for your county on NETW for the GFS run. Just looked for dorset and the GFS ops is quite a bit warmer than the mean for both monday and wed making much more likely we will see snow on those days.

The 850 mean hovers around -4 to -5 for days tbh and the gfs is probably a little too mild generally as it hasnt quiet latched onto the likely pattern so the cold is here for awhile yet.

Re saturday from looking at the detailed charts i get snow for N.Dorset and E.Somerset from 11am onwards for high ground, looking at theta, thicknesses 925 temps etc. NAE disagrees though with its snow specific forecast so maybe i am missing something.

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Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

Ooh yes and it is frosty! Currently hovering around 0c. Lovely

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Morning all, little uncertain on this mornings runs acute.gif

Shall have to see how the day pans out model wise and hope we see upgrades not downgrades! acute.gif

Nice and frosty though for second morning this week.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Met Office say snow for eastern & northern areas of the region Monday afternoon;

post-12721-0-43605700-1357892901_thumb.j

Also rather pleasent to the eye;

post-12721-0-79662700-1357893215_thumb.j

Respectable snow risk for many parts of the West Country shown there.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

Met Office say snow for eastern & northern areas of the region Monday afternoon;

post-12721-0-43605700-1357892901_thumb.j

Let's hope we get a flip back westwards because yday eve it looked like almost the whole of our region could have a really decent snowfall. Even Ian F put up graphics for Monday.

Feels like a slight trending away from that scenario this morning.

Maybe my 'wintry mix' scenario for next week is more likely, but things could still change for the better.

Edited by Bristle boy
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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

In Summary the weather output for our region this morning suggests that our area will be on a marginal boundary between rain and snow on occasions as we go through the next week or so as the cold spell transpires. In general places such as BANES, South Gloucestershire and Wiltshire will probably see some appreciable snowfall at times, while Dorset, Devon and Cornwall are more likely to see more transient snow events with rain or sleet at times as mild sectors brush close by, especially near the Coast. With regards to tomorrow night's event snow is looking far less likely this morning except on the highest parts of the Cotswolds and Salisbury plain as the rain looks to be more sporadic and lighter as well as being quicker to move away with an ice risk from the wet surfaces a much more likely problem for those travelling late tomorrow night under clearing skies.

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Posted
  • Location: Southampton, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, hot, hot! Or cold, cold, cold!
  • Location: Southampton, UK

Morning all! Beautiful morning here - first time I've seen the sun since, I believe, Boxing Day. Temps falling nicely and has plummeted 2.5C in 3 hours, after flatlining for the previous 18 hours.

Currently 3.1 C, 1020mb, DP 2.1C, WB 2.7C

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Posted
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl
  • Weather Preferences: all weather types!
  • Location: Shaftesbury, Dorset 300m asl

Morning all! biggrin.png

I don't want egg on my face, it had better snow Saturday night/Sunday morning and Monday/Tuesday as I have been ramping to high heaven biggrin.png

My forecast currently shows nada on the snow front, a small % chance on Thursday by all accounts and lots of rain.

See you all later, I am planning on cuddling up with a bottle of red and netweather for the night. My rock 'n roll lifestyle will burn me out one day! tease.gif

I think we need to look at the bigger picture with regards to snowfall predictions. Models will produce a forecast based on data at tha specific time. Each run navigates the low in different directions which even by 100 miles wll be significant to fall locations.

What is clear is that the low has never been far off the mark for our region and by the 12z run be at least 70% confident of a final path. Im happy that snow will be present for our except west devon and cornwall.

In short look at snow predictions from last night to this morning and see how much uncertainty there is. Best bet is not the models but a lampost!

Friday night model watching.....what more could you ask for and I think you may need something stronger than wine lol

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

I think we need to look at the bigger picture with regards to snowfall predictions. Models will produce a forecast based on data at tha specific time. Each run navigates the low in different directions which even by 100 miles wll be significant to fall locations.

What is clear is that the low has never been far off the mark for our region and by the 12z run be at least 70% confident of a final path. Im happy that snow will be present for our except west devon and cornwall.

In short look at snow predictions from last night to this morning and see how much uncertainty there is. Best bet is not the models but a lampost!

Friday night model watching.....what more could you ask for and I think you may need something stronger than wine lol

Yep and today were no clearer as to what pattern lies ahead next week, bring it on drinks.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

Morning All,

I'm going to take this as gospel and keep everything crossed that temps are a little lower than forecast for Wednesday - 26mm, mmmmm, yes please biggrin.png

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Let's hope we get a flip back westwards because yday eve it looked like almost the whole of our region could have a really decent snowfall. Even Ian F put up graphics for Monday.

Feels like a slight trending away from that scenario this morning.

Maybe my 'wintry mix' scenario for next week is more likely, but things could still change for the better.

The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?

According to the GFS its very very borderline IMBY.

Feel very sorry for Cornwall and Devon people, it hasent really shown anything at all for those regions except across the high ground.

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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?

According to the GFS its very very borderline IMBY.

Feel very sorry for Cornwall and Devon people, it hasent really shown anything at all for those regions except across the high ground.

"The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?"

The one i saw was yday evening, from Ian, for Monday was defo showing snow so that is a downgrade. Things could flip back again i guess - we'll just have to wait and see. The euphoria in the Mod Disc Thread yday eve was manic! A little more subdued today, unless the next set of runs 'deliver'.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Just a quick message or moan really...;The graphs look great and some people are going to get lots of snow but I find with most of the graphs that show snow just stop short of Exeter and anything to it's west....Quite irratating for any of us in those locations!!!! lol

I really think you need to take that up with the people who make snow, not the people that produce charts showing where they think it may or may not fall?

Apparently the charts only indicate what might or might not happen with the weather, not the other way about - can you believe that?!! :doh:

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Met office forecast for west country which was updated this morning is slightly concerning to be fair...

Saturday:

Further outbreaks of rain across many areas, with some sleet or snow possible on high ground in Gloucestershire and Wiltshire. Cornwall probably driest with only occasional showers. Maximum Temperature 8 °C.

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Bright spells and wintry showers on Sunday. A period of more persistent rain with sleet or snow on hills on Monday. Bright and largely dry on Tuesday, but staying cold.

Issued at: 0400 on Fri 11 Jan 2013

I don't see any widespread snow event from that and even uncertainty that high ground in this region will see much?! mega_shok.gif

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

"The graphics I saw this morning for Monday were just cloud. But isnt the front arriving late Monday?"

The one i saw was yday evening, from Ian, for Monday was defo showing snow so that is a downgrade. Things could flip back again i guess - we'll just have to wait and see. The euphoria in the Mod Disc Thread yday eve was manic! A little more subdued today, unless the next set of runs 'deliver'.

The temperatures seem on the up too. Will wait and see what happens. The ECM and GFS downgrading for our region today, and we are getting very close to T-0.

Could be the case our region gets the mild air as GP suggested, then we will have to wait until the end of next week to see if the a colder push comes back our way. Dont fancy watching the models chasing the cold for another 7 days.

Anyway lots can happen.

I watched ITV this morning, and the weather girl who left BBC had massive graphics up say 'BEAST FROM THE EAST'. I hadent seen any model output at that time, but thought........oh no.

Edited by latitude
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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

06z looks slightly different for saturday now good/bad depending on your location.

Slight adjustments make such a difference. Seems to get weaker and weaker all the time.

Well earlier it as Bang on Bristol to Reading, now jumped of east at 21.00 Sat, then more PPN towards Bristol later in the night.

Forget the models now for Saturday, its all down to radar watching if you ask me!

Edited by latitude
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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon
Posted · Hidden by Methuselah, January 11, 2013 - No reason given
Hidden by Methuselah, January 11, 2013 - No reason given

I really think you need to take that up with the people who make snow, not the people that produce charts showing where they think it may or may not fall?

Apparently the charts only indicate what might or might not happen with the weather, not the other way about - can you believe that?!! doh.gif

Um yes less of the sarcasm please, I am a newbie here and came to make an observation....Some people really need to get their heads out of their butts here! Not very friendly at all!

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Posted
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Cheddar Valley, 20mtrs asl

I don't remember any snow being forecast for here on the 4th November, but when I woke up, everything was white, covered with about 3 inches of the stuff. I don't recall anyone really forecasting much in February 2009, a light sprinkling was only a possibility (and a long shot at that) I awoke that day to over a foot of snow.....I know it's boring, I know anticipation is all part of the happy ride in these threads but it genuinely isn't possible to have pinpoint accuracy for forecasting snow 24 hours ahead, let alone 3 or 4 days. The most vital ingredient for getting snow is getting the temperature down. Precipitation is not something we have a shortage of in this part of the world, it's currently cooling down, it's going to get colder still, we may all be in for some pleasant surprises. For all those on the South coast, particularly Devon and Cornwall, I know it sucks that you have a harder time getting snow down there but for those of us inland, it sucks when you get warm, sunny weather and we get cold rain. There are winners and losers all year round when it comes to location and weather, that's part of what makes it so interesting.

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Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset

Let's hope this shortwave diving down through the uk on Monday is moved west over the coming few days, that will get those cold uppers further west and give us a much better chance of the white stuff

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Let's hope this shortwave diving down through the uk on Monday is moved west over the coming few days, that will get those cold uppers further west and give us a much better chance of the white stuff

It is, better run??

Slightly better, but heights to Greenland being stopped.

Better for snow prospects Monday.

Edited by latitude
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