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Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards


reef

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Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    A new thread for discussion on the model outputs.

    Please bear in mind this thread is not the place for outpourings of emotion and one-line comments which add nothing to the discussion, it just makes it difficult for everyone else to read through and gives conflicting information.

    For anything of that nature, there's this thread:

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75210-model-mayhem-moan-ramp-go-nuts/

    For those who want a more technical view of the models there's here:

    http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/

    Needless to say its a very busy time, please think before you hit the post button whether you're actually contributing to the discussion. The team are trying their hardest to keep the thread as easy to read as possible, but the sheer amount of posts at the moment means its very difficult. If you find your post has vanished then its likely it wasnt on-topic.

    Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

    A bit concerned where the UKMO would take us from the 144 chart, certainly looks a lot more messy run. Still much to resolve, so much for waking up to some form of agreement from the 00z runs wallbash.gif

    post-9615-0-59605400-1357881765_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

    looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

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    Posted
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.
  • Location: Morden, Surrey.

    Judging by what we have seen so far this morning i think its fair to say even at such short range that the pattern is far from sorted. Even if the ECM sticks with its previous outputs.

    Lots of confusion on this board this morning and a sense of imby posts creeping in which is not helping at all.

    We look once again to the ECM however one feels that the short & mid term pattern is far from certain & prone to changes.

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    Posted
  • Location: Anglesey
  • Location: Anglesey

    looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

    I'm not so sure. If you look at T144 on wetter it looks like a shortwave is going to cut off the high to the south to allow an Eastly flow to develop. Would like to get SM thoughts on this.

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    Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL

    I will ignore the snipes being made yet . ICETAB that is one evolution indeed , my issue is with the ejecting shortwave from the usa. This is the first time ive seen a' ski jump' style trough in the medium term in 2 days . Again it may be typical U.S models with over amplification but its a worry.

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    Posted
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: severe weather, tornadoes,intersting synopsis ,snow
  • Location: cork Ireland 80m ASL
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    GFS coming aboard more and more maintaining the cold uppers well into deep FI. ECM will be out shortly.

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    The commentary on the 00z

    Is by far the worst of the day

    I don't comment because I don't know enough yet at what I'm looking at. learners like me learn off of comments as the models roll out.

    Some comments this morning don't add anything to this thread at all

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

    Just reported a few posts. Hopefully mods will be along shortly.

    Back to the models please guys! Some of you really need to act your age! What is it about snow that makes some people return to being children.

    Anyway, decent GFS. I think closer to the time the ahortwaves will track further south than shown, similar to tomorrows shortwave.

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    Posted
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Dunoon Argyll Scotland

    Okay guys can we cut the sniping at each other and calm down and discuss the models please, remember there are report buttons and ignore options.

    Back to the models ECM is at 72h and looking good so far :)

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    Posted
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,storms and sunshine!!!
  • Location: 1mile north of Worcester City Centre

    SW exiting SE Greenland heading SE with heights pushing up behind them..Good start to the ECM so far.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds

    Morning all

    The latest 500mb anomaly charts still show above average pressure to the north of the uk and

    low pressure to the south. Have we yet seen the affects of the ssw on the pattern or is this still

    to follow ?

    post-9329-0-44498300-1357885347_thumb.gi

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    120h ECM il bank that for now best iv seen so far this morning at that time frame.

    ECM rock solid now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset

    Hard to tell where the warm sector on the ecm run! Never o far away it seems. BBC graphs are iffy too with carol

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    To the question I asked in the previous page regarding northern Ireland anyone have any thoughts?

    I never double post but I fear it was lost amongst the handbags

    You may get more response asking this question in the regional threads. However, my take would be that Northern Ireland is unlikely to see any snow this weekend, although turning colder. Next week could provide snow for you, current GFS looks good Weds/Thurs. Although as I am sure you are aware, the models are still trying to get a grip with what will happen from about Mon/Tue onwards and so I wouldn't take that as gospel.

    If yesterday's ECM came to fruition then I think we would all get snow. But lets see what this mornings models show. EDIT: Today's ECM 00z looking very good again :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Good lord, look at those uppers pouring across the UK. Lovely sight indeed and could be an epic run coming up here.

    ECM0-120.GIF?11-12

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