Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[reef]

A new thread for discussion on the model outputs.

Please bear in mind this thread is not the place for outpourings of emotion and one-line comments which add nothing to the discussion, it just makes it difficult for everyone else to read through and gives conflicting information.

For anything of that nature, there's this thread:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75210-model-mayhem-moan-ramp-go-nuts/

For those who want a more technical view of the models there's here:

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/

Needless to say its a very busy time, please think before you hit the post button whether you're actually contributing to the discussion. The team are trying their hardest to keep the thread as easy to read as possible, but the sheer amount of posts at the moment means its very difficult. If you find your post has vanished then its likely it wasnt on-topic.

Thanks

[Liam J]

A bit concerned where the UKMO would take us from the 144 chart, certainly looks a lot more messy run. Still much to resolve, so much for waking up to some form of agreement from the 00z runs

[rory o gorman]

looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

[london-snow]

Judging by what we have seen so far this morning i think its fair to say even at such short range that the pattern is far from sorted. Even if the ECM sticks with its previous outputs.

Lots of confusion on this board this morning and a sense of imby posts creeping in which is not helping at all.

We look once again to the ECM however one feels that the short & mid term pattern is far from certain & prone to changes.

[ICETAB]

looks to me like a similar evolution to the GEM long term on the UKMO

I'm not so sure. If you look at T144 on wetter it looks like a shortwave is going to cut off the high to the south to allow an Eastly flow to develop. Would like to get SM thoughts on this.

[rory o gorman]

I will ignore the snipes being made yet . ICETAB that is one evolution indeed , my issue is with the ejecting shortwave from the usa. This is the first time ive seen a' ski jump' style trough in the medium term in 2 days . Again it may be typical U.S models with over amplification but its a worry.

[rory o gorman]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2013&model_mm=01&model_dd=11&model_init_hh=00&fhour=84&parameter=WSPD&level=500&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false NAM 84 hour ejecting harder then before

[The PIT]

GFS coming aboard more and more maintaining the cold uppers well into deep FI. ECM will be out shortly.

[snowbob]

The commentary on the 00z

Is by far the worst of the day

I don't comment because I don't know enough yet at what I'm looking at. learners like me learn off of comments as the models roll out.

Some comments this morning don't add anything to this thread at all

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just reported a few posts. Hopefully mods will be along shortly.

Back to the models please guys! Some of you really need to act your age! What is it about snow that makes some people return to being children.

Anyway, decent GFS. I think closer to the time the ahortwaves will track further south than shown, similar to tomorrows shortwave.

[Matty M]

ECM grand at T96hrs

low dropping south, heights recovering to the north

model variance at T96hrs absurd. Models struggling like i have never seen before with this set up.

[Zenarcher]

Okay guys can we cut the sniping at each other and calm down and discuss the models please, remember there are report buttons and ignore options.

Back to the models ECM is at 72h and looking good so far

[BorrisB77]

SW exiting SE Greenland heading SE with heights pushing up behind them..Good start to the ECM so far.

[scottishandy]

Meanwhile ECM out to 96 and looking steady in it's output, SW dropping fine. Possibly looking a litle messier over S Greenland but not too concerning so far.

[shotski]

Morning all

The latest 500mb anomaly charts still show above average pressure to the north of the uk and

low pressure to the south. Have we yet seen the affects of the ssw on the pattern or is this still

to follow ?

[Jonan92]

ECM t96 in yesterday's 00z run

Today's run

Huge change

[Matty M]

120hrs is decent to say the least.

[Jonan92]

What a change!

[Wilxy]

120h ECM il bank that for now best iv seen so far this morning at that time frame.

ECM rock solid now.

[ICETAB]

ECM t96 in yesterday's 00z run

Today's run

Huge change

Big improvment. Looking good for an eastly at T144. Come on!

[Dave Kightley]

Hard to tell where the warm sector on the ecm run! Never o far away it seems. BBC graphs are iffy too with carol

[mountain shadow]

What we are seeing now is the initial impact of the SSW. The full effect will be towards month end and hopefully better.

[Supacell]

To the question I asked in the previous page regarding northern Ireland anyone have any thoughts?

I never double post but I fear it was lost amongst the handbags

You may get more response asking this question in the regional threads. However, my take would be that Northern Ireland is unlikely to see any snow this weekend, although turning colder. Next week could provide snow for you, current GFS looks good Weds/Thurs. Although as I am sure you are aware, the models are still trying to get a grip with what will happen from about Mon/Tue onwards and so I wouldn't take that as gospel.

If yesterday's ECM came to fruition then I think we would all get snow. But lets see what this mornings models show. EDIT: Today's ECM 00z looking very good again

[mountain shadow]

Rock solid ECM. Even if we take a blend of output a minimun 5 day cold spell is likely.

[Ice Day]

Good lord, look at those uppers pouring across the UK. Lovely sight indeed and could be an epic run coming up here.