Winter Model Discussion - 11/01/13 00z Onwards

[Dave Kightley]

Monday snow event is Marginal in the west! Could go either way. LONDON though wow you'l like Carol forecast this morning

[Beaufort12]

Thanks SupaCell for taking the time to answer. Much appreciated

[Great Plum]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

A fantastic chart for the vast majority of the country... -10 uppers just sitting off the east coast!

[Wilxy]

I love how yet again this morning the uncertainty continues with GEM finally back away from the cold scenario, GFS finally a lot better UKMO a bit iffy this morning and hopefully the rest of the ECM will be decent.

YESSS PLEASE AT 144H BLOCK BUILDING NOT SEEN THAT YET.

[Ice Day]

144 not looking too shoddy either. Minus 8 uppers just about cover the whole country now in an easterly flow!

[ICETAB]

We have an undercut at T144 however we need unother one to prevent a link up with the high to the south I think. Could go wrong at T168. I know I know, I shouldn't be worrying about T168.

Still lots of changes to come I feel.

Edited January 11, 2013 by ICETAB

[Matty M]

latest ecm a totally new type of evolution very very different to gfs

[Wilxy]

ECM builds a block out of nowhere and just another possibility next week.

[Dave Kightley]

Knife edge stuff for Monday. EVerything looks further West on the ecm as i can't tell where the warm sector is? Can anyone clarify thats the case?

[mulzy]

Very different ECM evolution at 144/168. Have a horrible feeling that the high will now topple, need to be sucked north-east if possible.

[rory o gorman]

great start to the ecm. shortwave drops fast with a good easterly. heights beginning to sink though at 168 hrs

[shotski]

latest ecm a totally new type of evolution very very different to gfs

This is how things are going to pan out IMO. look at the surge of very cold air pushing down the

eastern seaboard of the USA, this in turn avects mild air to the north of the uk helping with a rise

in pressure there and hopefully some decent blocking.

[Beaufort12]

Chris Fawkes â€@_chrisfawkes

Midnight ec deterministic run has flipped to mild solution by end of next week - bet that's not supported by ensembles later this morning.

[Jonan92]

Remember what the CMA was showing yesterday?

ECM today

[rory o gorman]

192 hrs looking poised to topple IMO

Edited January 11, 2013 by rory o gorman

[Dexter29]

Very different ECM evolution at 144/168. Have a horrible feeling that the high will now topple, need to be sucked north-east if possible.

Agree but the ECM evolution gives us all exactly what we want early next week, anything after will chop and change considerably.

Slightly concerned that the GEM has gone mild and the UKMO is a bit iffy.

But the fact the ECM sets up cold from the east next week regains my confidence.

[Duane S.]

Hard to tell where the warm sector on the ecm run! Never o far away it seems. BBC graphs are iffy too with carol

Stop fixating on warm sectors that far out and concentrate more on upper patterns. Far less stressful.

[Wilxy]

I like the idea of the ECM building heights but doesn't end up working in are favour where as the GFS had a more zonal look big differences now again.

[rory o gorman]

toppled.. there is just to much energy coming off the eastern sea board right now on all the runs .

[Jayces]

I believe that GP (Stewart) expected a milder incursion at the end of the week before more prolonged cold after that.

This morning's ECM just goes to show the futility of looking beyond T72 at the moment, with some 12 degrees temperature difference being shown for 6-7 days away from 12 hours ago.

[kev238]

There Are differences but there always have been, the difference now is that we seem to have agreement on Monday at least and the shortwave dropping south east.

There can be no confidence in any outcome post monday in my opinion as everything is varying so much. Mondays potential should keep us interested in the mean time

I think I prefer the gfs now door my location but it is very risky.

ECM is great but ends rather benign.

Ukmo is a bit of a no mans land

[Weathizard]

Today ECM massive switch from last 2, we await to see if its an outlier, uppers are dodgy from monday onwards lots of mixing out going on to say the least. Was preidictable that once we got the GFS on board with similar ideas the ECM would go down a different route! Bloody models! ECM isn't great after 144 this morning, my reason for this is that we may have a bit of blocking around us but it is orientated poorly and sucks mild air up from the south. Good signs earlier though I suppose with a bit of a block breaking off to the North of us, heights too low to go north? Sypnotically the charts this morning could probably get more sustained cold but not as much snow.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Weathizard

[Dexter29]

toppled.. there is just to much energy coming off the eastern sea board right now on all the runs .

That's 6 days away.

In the reliable the ECM maintains the cold and easterly for next week. It keeps the snow in places too.

[Great Plum]

toppled.. there is just to much energy coming off the eastern sea board right now on all the runs .

The good news is that these runs which show the high toppling are post 168... It's also an utterly different trend than last night's ECM!

I would say now that the majority of the country has at least 6/7 days of cold weather which could easily be extended ATM...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.png

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

But just look at the differences at that range from the big 3... Importantly, although all those charts are different, they are cold for much of the country!

[Long haul to mild]

Not too worried about toppling highs over a week away given the differences in the models at the moment. We are in a much better place than we were yesterday when the GFS kept bringing in SW'lys for Tuesday; there is plenty of snow on all the models now, albeit with different areas affected depending on which model you view.

The GEM has gone poor admittedly, but it's not reliable enough in my view to be particularly significant at this stage.

The broad pattern is cold this morning, but which version of cold is still very much up for grabs!