North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

[SparkleS]

Well im in leyland and although we had drizzle overnight its been quite a bright dry day and temps about 6 degrees i think where it was about 4 this morning, but now i look north from my window towards preston the skies got that snowy look, i maybe wrong, might just be the tiny bit of sun from the south shining upon it. Could just be rain in the north!

[Maz]

I don't know, weren't we in a similar setup last year where it looked like we were decent shout only for a warm sector to get in way thus resulting in Freezing instead? or is a bit different this time?

IMHO our regions best snow events happen when we get cold air in place, normally needing a feed from East or North, and then we get an influence, possibly temporary, from the North West or West which gives some moisture.

A straight North, NE or Easterly tends to be dry in our region, so gives us our coldest weather, but often our driest weather too.

Get some sort of a Westerly/ NW'ly influence and temps are more marginal, but we get precipitation, often more than areas further East which remain colder.

The weekend sees cold air move in from the East, Monday a system moves into it from the NW - so the ingredients are there for a good but marginal event. Too early to discuss the specifics, but experience suggests the M6 rain/snow boundary is a good start point.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Maz

[feb1991blizzard]

This is not a ramp as i have massive doubts about verification chances but IF it did verify, the 12z GFS would not be AS good for the Western extreme of our region but would give an absolute belting to the Eastern Half of the region with some snow still possible further West.

[cfallon]

This is not a ramp as i have massive doubts about verification chances but IF it did verify, the 12z GFS would not be AS good for the Western extreme of our region but would give an absolute belting to the Eastern Half of the region with some snow still possible further West.

Great looking charts! Lets keep everything crossed!

[sal007]

This is not a ramp as i have massive doubts about verification chances but IF it did verify, the 12z GFS would not be AS good for the Western extreme of our region but would give an absolute belting to the Eastern Half of the region with some snow still possible further West.

Not looking too good for the most western parts of the region..!

Edited January 11, 2013 by sal007

[snowdrifter]

This is where living on the coast is such a massive pain. However, the journey to work in Leyland could be interesting.

[feb1991blizzard]

Great looking charts! Lets keep everything crossed!

Yes, ukmo not too bad either, although not quite as good, this wont be nailed until sundays NAE / FAX one way or the other. squeeky bum time ove rnext 48 hours.

[feb1991blizzard]

It could trend further West so dont panic yet, i have my doubts about its severity and extent, the only analogue i can remember for an event like this is FEB 96 but even then there are big differences and i would not have a clue what the signals were back then as we only had country file and the like then.

[Winter Monsoon]

Got ignored on the model thread no supprise there, i must be seeing it differently but those 850's arent as cold as the 6z which i though directly relates to if you get snowfall and it settling

[cfallon]

Yes, ukmo not too bad either, although not quite as good, this wont be nailed until sundays NAE / FAX one way or the other. squeeky bum time ove rnext 48 hours.

It sure is but it's getting closer and closer and for us here on the Pennines we would most def do well if things varified as shown! I think everybody could do well next 48hrs crucial

Edited January 11, 2013 by cfallon

[snowdrifter]

It could trend further West so dont panic yet, i have my doubts about its severity and extent, the only analogue i can remember for an event like this is FEB 96 but even then there are big differences and i would not have a clue what the signals were back then as we only had country file and the like then.

I do remember that rain was forecast then esp on Lancs coasts - it caught everyone out and the cold was not expected to stall quite as it did, so its all up in the air (literally!)...

[chiffer]

Were in a better position than last Feb (those west of the m6 that is) im east of the m6 by about 8 miles and that didn't help me last year! So if you do well further west so will I..

Hopefully.

[feb1991blizzard]

I agree the UKMO is far better than the GFS and is the best run of the last 24 hours for sustained cold but the GFS gives almost a country wide belting, surely anyone living in a large part of the uk would bank that, granted - there may be some people who miss out altogether in the west, but your never going to get every acre of land covered by snow at any one time!!!!

I do remember that rain was forecast then esp on Lancs coasts - it caught everyone out and the cold was not expected to stall quite as it did, so its all up in the air (literally!)...

I was in the midlands then but still got six inches.

[snowdrifter]

I was in the midlands then but still got six inches.

Me too - lived in Malvern, Worcs. The Malvern Hills were a dream.

[UV-RAY]

It's no good getting hung up over whether we are to far West or not, we are still another 60+ hrs away from the event. The snow line will move back and forth and I've a feeling that it will be us in the NW that cops the biggest falls, just look at the trough coming down on Monday it's perfectly aligned IMO to give all of us a dumping of snow, we have -5 uppers just to the west of us and I think these will be even further West with DP looking great also, so lets sit back and just wait and see.

Edited January 11, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[snowdrifter]

It's no good getting hung up over whether we are to far West or not, we are still another 60+ hrs away from the event. The snow line will move back and forth and I've a feeling that it will be us in the NW that cops the biggest falls, just look at the trough coming down on Monday it's perfectly aligned IMO to give all of us a dumping of snow, we have -5 uppers just to the west of us and I think these will be even further West with DP looking great also, so lets sit back and just wait and see.

Good post SI

[feb1991blizzard]

It's no good getting hung up over whether we are to far West or not, we are still another 60+ hrs away from the event. The snow line will move back and forth and I've a feeling that it will be us in the NW that cops the biggest falls, just look at the trough coming down on Monday it's perfectly aligned IMO to give all of us a dumping of snow, we have -5 uppers just to the west of us and I think these will be even further West with DP looking great also, so lets sit back and just wait and see.

I hope your right!! its not like you to go all positive!!!!

[UV-RAY]

I hope your right!! its not like you to go all positive!!!!

Lol, I'm only positive when theres something to be positive about, unlike Decembers farce.

[snowdrifter]

GEM is a gem for the west!!

Edited January 11, 2013 by snowdrifter

[feb1991blizzard]

GEM is a gem for the west!!

Its a gem for everywhere, that shortwave would give a pasting to large areas of UK, like the GFS , im not sure why someone posted that its no good on the MOD.

[chris78]

It's no good getting hung up over whether we are to far West or not, we are still another 60+ hrs away from the event. The snow line will move back and forth and I've a feeling that it will be us in the NW that cops the biggest falls, just look at the trough coming down on Monday it's perfectly aligned IMO to give all of us a dumping of snow, we have -5 uppers just to the west of us and I think these will be even further West with DP looking great also, so lets sit back and just wait and see.

I take your point.....things will change from run to run...however it would be crazy to disregard history...and for my location history says no..with a few (very few) exceptions...

this chart (i know its too for out for accurate charts) sadly is what I expect.......

Edited January 11, 2013 by chris78

[snowdrifter]

Its a gem for everywhere, that shortwave would give a pasting to large areas of UK, like the GFS , im not sure why someone posted that its no good on the MOD.

No I didn't get that one either - had to look at it again to see if I'd mis-read the chart.

[SnowObsessor90]

Weather underground forecasts 6c and rain for my area on Monday, I really hope that doesn't end up coming anywhere near close to fruition.

[feb1991blizzard]

Weather underground forecasts 6c and rain for my area on Monday, I really hope that doesn't end up coming anywhere near close to fruition.

The problem now is that no one can tell where anyone lives, is that west of the region?

Edited January 11, 2013 by feb1991blizzard

[SnowObsessor90]

The problem now is that no one can tell where anyone lives, is that west of the region?

Yup, it's in BT's area in other words Runcorn lol