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North West England Regional Discussion 11/01/13 ------->

A.J

By A.J
in Regional

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Granted its not ideal.

Im no expert but i dont think freezing rain will be an issue, i think thats usually more of an issue when there has been searing cold and snow cover for days but dont hold me to it, GEFS mean does keep PPN wintry over a decent chunk of region but looking at the uppers for the period, that could just be another typical GFS tease where it over does the level of wintry PPN.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Rain all the way through here on that Meto link, wonderful, as always the Irish Sea scuppers it.

Yep, I have a distinct feeling I'm going to be mightily cheesed off come Monday

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Barmada Casten Rookie

Barmada Casten

Posted
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather of all kinds, natural disasters and catastrophes.
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria
Posted

how are things looking for the nw after Monday........?

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Promising FAX charts which gives me a glimmer of hope that it won't all be rain as there isn't a 'warm sector' just occluded fonts embedded into the cold air with the 528 thickness well out west. We can hope!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=2000&ech=0

Edited by Liam J
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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Yep, I have a distinct feeling I'm going to be mightily cheesed off come Monday

I expect it'l be a nowcast situation, the NAE looks OK and keeps uppers around -5c (then falling) and dew points at or below 0c for many.

After experiencing similar events in the past then I can tell you now that it's not going to snow here, to many bad memories and dashed hopes! Dec 2009 a good example when it just rained and 30/40 miles south had a foot of snow!

Edited by Liam J
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted (edited)

ECM Ens better than i thought, i know its a lot further South and East but the mean does not get above 3c the whole run, now i know it means jack (pardon the pun) at that range but surely shows that there is still options on the table, some of those could have a more Northerly component which would mean we would be even colder than London.

ensemble-tt6-london.gif

how are things looking for the nw after Monday........?

Very uncertain at the moment. More than likely staying cold until end next week but snowfall amounts uncertain, after that, who knows.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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Nbrasso Newbie

Nbrasso

Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold winters, anything extreme
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire, North West England
Posted

How is it looking for snow in the Congleton area next week? seems like forever since we had a decent amount of snowfall.

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Sara1988 Apprentice

Sara1988

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl
Posted

I think very light very small flakes starting to fall here now.

i posted about that in my area 10 mins ago in yorkshire thread, it looks like very fine light flakes falling here too

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Sara1988 Apprentice

Sara1988

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Hoyland, south Yorkshire 160m/525ft asl
Posted

I'm between Buxton and Stockport. Definatly small fine flakes at the moment smile.png

same here at the moment :)

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davacr123 Contributor

davacr123

Posted
  • Location: Walton liverpool 33m asl work hoylake near train station
  • Weather Preferences: winter snow summer lots of sun
  • Location: Walton liverpool 33m asl work hoylake near train station
Posted

Just rain here in Birkenhead probably all we will get to be honest

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Snowmad79 Aficionado

Snowmad79

Posted
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowageddon and a new ice age. Then a summer long bbq heatwave!
  • Location: Sholver - Oldham East - 250m / 820ft ASL
Posted

Guys, apologies if this has been posted already... The NAE 18z @ 48hr shows this (better than the earlier runs):

13011318_2_1118.gif

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davacr123 Contributor

davacr123

Posted
  • Location: Walton liverpool 33m asl work hoylake near train station
  • Weather Preferences: winter snow summer lots of sun
  • Location: Walton liverpool 33m asl work hoylake near train station
Posted (edited)

From model output thread fergieweather, on 12 January 2013 - 00:53 , said:

Plenty of time ahead given UKMO tells us latest FORMOST forecast offers below or well below average temps thro to early Feb... this currently steers their 15d forecast opinions!

Edited by davacr123
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weathersupremacy Newbie

weathersupremacy

Posted
  • Location: High Peak
  • Location: High Peak
Posted

Quite low down then rofl.gif

Yes. I will take lots of images on Monday though especially for you :p Remind you of what snow looks like. Just hope I can get home in the inches of snow we will get up here ;)

Just breezy now. No flakes anymore.

From model output thread fergieweather, on 12 January 2013 - 00:53 , said:

Plenty of time ahead given UKMO tells us latest FORMOST forecast offers below or well below average temps thro to early Feb... this currently steers their 15d forecast opinions!

Yeah, just read that. Very encouraging news. I wont stay up for the 00z and will get up in morning to see all charts then. No point staying up for every single run when it's very volitle and changing all the time.

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted

Yes. I will take lots of images on Monday though especially for you blum.gif Remind you of what snow looks like. Just hope I can get home in the inches of snow we will get up here tease.gif

Ok you can stop that right now :p

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Here in Wirral, we have rain when Runcorn has snow, so imagine how we feel.. rofl.gif

Haha, time to move house then mate :p

Also, a side note to people pinning their hopes on the NAE - DON'T. It's such a bad model, very rarely correct.

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SnowObsessor90 Apprentice

SnowObsessor90

Posted
  • Location: Cheshire
  • Location: Cheshire
Posted

How is it looking for snow in the Congleton area next week? seems like forever since we had a decent amount of snowfall.

Well if you do then I'll be round there, you always get more than us further west regardless of how marginal or less marginal the synoptics are lol

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Backtrack Accomplished

Backtrack

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winters, hot, sunny springs and summers.
  • Location: Runcorn, Cheshire
Posted

Well if you do then I'll be round there, you always get more than us further west regardless of how marginal or less marginal the synoptics are lol

Maybe his ruler is broke. :lol:

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Maybe his ruler is broke. laugh.png

Congleton always gets more snow than here, it rises pretty rapidly just a mile out of the town as you head up past Buglawton.

By the time you get towards Bosley crossroads your up at 170m

Edited by CreweCold
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Nbrasso Newbie

Nbrasso

Posted
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire, North West England
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, cold winters, anything extreme
  • Location: Congleton, Cheshire, North West England
Posted

Congleton always gets more snow than here, it rises pretty rapidly just a mile out of the town as you head up past Buglawton.

By the time you get towards Bosley crossroads your up at 170m

Well lets hope we both get a decent amount of snow next week :)
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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted (edited)

Not looking too good for the most western parts of the region..!

That was always the case though, but Monday still looks interesting for those further west.

Though again, GFS over doing it as usual

Edited by HotCuppa
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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Assuming that those of us further are on wrong side of marginal what would we be more likely to get freezing rain like last year or just plain Rain? If it's not going to snow then I'd rather it not be former otherwise it could become quite hazardous round these parts.

It would be rain not freezing rain

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