Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

[swfc]

102 hours and looking like things flattening out

[chris55]

Less energy heading south east from the main Low to the north west, Azores high ridging a little more, this may follow ECM?

[TEITS]

Looking upstream the 06Z is more like the ECM however the HP is extending further W.

That for me currently sums up the 0Z. I feel the ECM is too quick in removing the E,ly flow but im not convinced of the UKMO either unfortunately. I feel the +96 06Z is a good mean of todays output.

So for me at the moment it will probably turn milder but not as quick as the ECM is suggesting. Could well change at 4pm though!

[WhiteFox]

Given the 6z performance this week wrt developments to the north I'd be more likely to buy a Yugo than any solution it offers, especially if it ends up at odds with the 0z and every other model!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Less energy heading south east from the main Low to the north west, Azores high ridging a little more, this may follow ECM?

Wrong , better hights north of us, carbon copy of the ukmo

Edited January 12, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[Nick F]

Strong jet streak coming out of NE Canada/New Foundland around t+120 on both 00z and 06z GFS - key is where the 06z takes this jet streak thereafter. if it heads more NE than SE (as per 00z) then the HP will sink allowing milder more mobile conditions back in.

[Duane S.]

Yep, +90 / 96 again the point at which it happens or doesn't. Although at +120 GFS not as progressive as the ECM fo sure, less energy being transported through Iceland. Interested where this will take us a few days on from the 4 day point.

[ChartViewer]

You can see the shape of the jet at T114 on the 06z to the 00z.....Not as good as doesnt allow heights to build to the north......time to change as reverse zonal winds affect the jet hopefully!!!...More southward track please!

06z

00z

Interesting at t138!

Edited January 12, 2013 by ChartViewer

[SnOwFeSt]

An upgrade on snow prospes over the next 72 hours imo. More snowy and less marginal for more western areas.

I think people are getting a little too hung up on the pattern from Thursday. It is way in FI atm. When you get deep cold set in for a few days, strange things happen! Such a depth of cold won't go away without a fight. In short enjoy the next few days of snow test and look forward to seeing how long it will last.

[TEITS]

Adding some charts to highlight the area members need to keep an eye on in future models runs.

Poor, more likely to see LP going over the top of the HP.

Much better, more likely to see LP going under.

Basically the GFS can't make up its mind between the ECM/UKMO although like I said earlier its interesting the poorer 06Z runs follow the ECM!

[Methuselah]

A wee reminder: as it's so busy in here just now, some posts (especially those prone to lead to 'oh yes it is', 'oh no it isn't' type responses) are probably being sent here: where they can be argued over, to kingdom come!

[Cloud 10]

Big change in the angle of the jet on the 06z compared to the 00z,the 06z has more energy

going north which will flatten the high,much like ecm.

00z.. 06z..

edit. much as TEITS posted!

edit. and everyone else,lol!

Edited January 12, 2013 by Cloud 10

[Snowly does it]

T132 and it's Atlantic knocking on the door but the cold for the moment hanging on

Be interesting to see if this can tuck under?

[chris55]

Wrong , better hights north of us, carbon copy of the ukmo

No, not a carbon copy of the UKMO, definitely less energy to the south west for the period I highlighted, 00z had two shortwaves in place 06z has more of a ridging Azores high, end result is somewhere between the 00z and the ECM. However at this range and with cross model divergence it means little, but just commenting on the one run as it unfolds.

[Buzz]

However at 144 the cold to the east is still holding firm and there's still a lot of cold air over us:

http://www.meteociel...&ech=144&mode=0

Interesting, but still too far into what is now FI to take TOO much notice of it.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Buzz

[manutdmatt1986]

I've noticed that the GFS has consistently shown Monday's snow to change to rain for a time to the south of London only to then turn back to snow. Does anyone know why this might be?

[stainesbloke]

Adding some charts to highlight the area members need to keep an eye on in future models runs.

Poor, more likely to see LP going over the top of the HP.

Much better, more likely to see LP going under.

Basically the GFS can't make up its mind between the ECM/UKMO although like I said earlier its interesting the poorer 06Z runs follow the ECM!

Great post basically that is the deciding factor at this stage. We definitely want to see the second chart verify for extended cold, otherwise the Atlantic comes in quite quickly.

[bradymk]

Might be seeing a change at 144 regarding the Jet heading more SE and the milder SW may not even reach the southern half of the UK here, might be wrong but Jet more NW-SE 144 but we haven't got any northern blocking because of the high sinking earlier

[Tim Bland]

Cold still won't budge even with the impending topple. Can't grumble at a subzero week with lots of snow opportunity. Out to fri and its still holding with snow showers still coming in from the east! So what if we have a milder spell after.. We will need it!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=144&code=code&mode=9&mode3h=&runpara=0&carte=0&

[IDO]

Cold putting up a fight and by Friday still v.cold:

[UV-RAY]

From what I've seen from the ECM and GFS is for milder conditions to set in from around Thursday onwards, this ties in basically with what GP said the other day. Then it's a case of how long before the next cold arrives.

Edited January 12, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Vertical edvection of warm air goin north- renewed push of east winds on the way by t180 , building height again to our northeast

[The Giant Daddy Jackpot]

I think far from the snow petering out as it hits the south east, the snow will intensify as a circulation develops to the south east. I think you guys in the south east and east anglia will do best, with the east midlands and north east following close behind.

Other areas look more marginal or uncertain.

Of course, on the day amounts will vary as precipitation does wax and wane as can often be seen on the excellent net weather radar.

There is always the possibility of that front stalling and intensifying over the SE. The MET O are keeping tight-lipped at the moment and are stating that confidence is 'low' about the quantities of snowfall, particularly for southern and southeastern parts. Anything from a few cm to a very disruptive event!

[swfc]

Fi for me is between 72-108 hr mark.gfs starts to build pressure and an easterly to come in.the ecm and gfs are to a point heading the same way imo

[kev238]

Yes; this is a shift towards the ECM from gfs but not quite there. However, I would suggest people focus on the here and now; well the next 72 hours.

There should be plenty of convective showers in the east on tuesdaynand Wednesday as well with minus 10 or so uppers going over a warm sea. I am not sure how far in land these will get though.