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Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

Very strange at t72 20mb higher heights over Greenland, scandie high further north and west than any other model.

Only way is into the freezer.

How can it be so different at T72?

Because it could be wrong come Thursday/Friday......only time will tell.....actually it isnt that that far different from UKMO...But i take your point....could be we ditch it or take it seriousy after this period.....very interesting to see thoughsmile.png

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: Grangemouth, Central Scotland 5m ASL Weekday mornings and afternoons: Edinburgh
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold, snow, fog Summer: warm, sunny
  • Location: Grangemouth, Central Scotland 5m ASL Weekday mornings and afternoons: Edinburgh

The latest countryfile forecast uses 12z output yet despite the lighter easterly winds it still shows snow showers getting into central areas.

Edited by GrangemouthBairn
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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales

So ECM has ended up pushing the milder weather back from Tuesday to the weekend and then turning milder in the west and south west before turning cool once again soon after for all. GEM another good run for cold along with UKMO which continues its trend of southerly tracking lows but slackens the easterly flow for midweek. GFS is also good for longer colder weather with a big snow event in the west before milder weather moves in for all after the weekend. PS - Re tv forecast, the one on countryfile was different to the one posted earlier I think and the charts used also looked different for next week compared to the other forecast so maybe they did update for the countryfile version.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

New thread coming soon. Please finish up.

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Posted
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales
  • Location: Llanharan, South Wales

Yes, the METO are now confident of a cold block right into next weekend with cold uppers really digging in. Snow showers moving inland from those North Sea troughs and really pepping up by Wednesday.Anyone disappointed by the lack of any white stuff in our area tomorrow should see some by the middle of the week and feeling bitter in a keen NE flow!

brack2a.gif

how far west in a situation like that will snow showers penetrate ? Hants/Dorset perhaps ?

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Posted
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: None Really but a snow lover deep down
  • Location: Kilmersdon Radstock Somerset

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for Sunday January 13th 2013.

All models show a cold week to come. Early in the week troughs and a developing Low pressure slips SE over the UK and away to the SE midweek. This brings a mix of rain, sleet and snow for many with snow restricted but significant to the far East of the mainland. Elsewhere rain or sleet is far more likely with little disruption likely. In the second half of the week the pattern becomes more complex though still cold as the Atlantic moves up against the UK with the threat of heavy snow and/or milder weather knocking on the door by the weekend.

GFS shows a cold Easterly flow midweek quickly replaced by a cold SE flow to end as Low pressure approaches from the West. Some snow may well move into the West before dying out over the start of the weekend as the High to the NE rebuilds briefly. However, as the axis of the ridge sinks South the Jet rides over the top and the Atlantic cranks up a gear with the milder SSW flow taking shape quickly at the weekend. Thereafter, the pattern of Low to the North and High to the South with a strong West flow over the UK lasts for some time with some rain at times, especially in the North. There would be a few cooler intervals as cold fronts pass by but nothing remotely wintry at the surface felt for late January.

The GFS Ensembles are not so good for cold lovers tonight with a cold week being replaced by a trend towards more normal conditions later as the Atlantic takes control in week 2.

The Jet Stream shows the flow being directed under the northern High for the week to come before a strong turn North in the flow towards the North late in the week runs the risk of the flow riding over the top of the sinking or receding european High pressure at the weekend.

UKMO shows the midweek period dominated by High pressure to the NE with a ridge over England. The down side of this is that the stronger Easterly flow shown on the 00z is much lighter, hence less chance of penetrative snow showers inland from the East coast but on the plus side Low pressure slides SE close to SW Britain on Thursday with the risk of an area of snow in the SW causing problems here as more Northern areas stay cold, dry and frosty. By Friday a monster Low to the SW is a rare sight for UKMO with a strong to gale East or ESE flow blowing over the UK with an active front in the English Channel. With rain and sleet near the South Coast and Cornwall other areas of Southern Britain, Wales and the South Midlands would encounter potential blizzard conditions and major disruption should it verify.

ECM shows the midweek period as cold with an East flow and some snow showers in the East and SE for a time before the end of the week sees a complete difference to UKMO with a Scandi High holding solid with it's ridge over the UK maintaining frost and ice by night and little thaw of any lying snow in the East. Later in its run the High does give way slowly as the Atlantic pushes in to the UK with a band of snow followed by rain. However, with Europe remaining locked in cold, successive low pressure disrupts and continues to pull energy SE and although on this run it is too far East to mean anything other than rain for the UK away from the far East.

In Summary tonight there is a mixture of outcomes shown which make things no clearer on where we go forward from Thursday of this week. With blizzards (UKMO), cold and frosty weather, (ECM) and mild Westerly winds (GFS) are all on offer over the next few weeks. Much as I would like to see UKMO's evolution come to fruition I very much side with the ECM evolution with GFS far too progressive too quickly. Nevertheless, the GFS Ensembles are disappointing tonight and it looks like after a week or so more of cold we may have to confront the power of the Atlantic winning over early next week.

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