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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Righty O, please carry on here

Old thread ------------------------->

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Looking good so far! ( Will update as it outputs )

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

prectypeuktopo.png

And thats it.

prectypeuktopo.png

h850t850eu.png

h850t850eu.png

Anything after this is now FI

Atlantic arrival pushed right away.

Looks like HP to the NW becomes stronger bringing even more cold air down

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole

2c and -2dp here now. Temp is slowly dropping down.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

That would dump alot of snow on parts of cornwal and devon, shame it can't move inland another 50 miles though.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Its currently 2.2c here

http://www.wundergro..._Lavington.html

Got to like my old schools weather station

temp 1.7 smile.png

dew point -1 °C

Currently 2.2c here with -1c DP also ..

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

As the GFS 12z is currently rolling, I just want to give a pointer to a couple of posts from the other thread.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75521-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-12th-january-2013/page__st__740#entry2489553

The above discusses the more immediate timeframe and the post shown below shows the BBC's ideas of the prospects as we head towards next weekend.

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75521-southwest-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-12th-january-2013/page__st__680#entry2489096

As others have stated, the reliable GFS 12z is certainly a good run so far, with regards to entrenched cold. smile.png

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

That would dump alot of snow on parts of cornwal and devon, shame it can't move inland another 50 miles though.

Inbetween now and then it could. Compared to the 06z its already moved 50miles further east.

06z;

post-12721-0-88315300-1358092669_thumb.j

12z;

post-12721-0-73647000-1358092683_thumb.j

Both midday Wednesday.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

That would dump alot of snow on parts of cornwal and devon, shame it can't move inland another 50 miles though.

Who said it can't. tease.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Inbetween now and then it could. Compared to the 06z its already moved 50miles further east.

Yep, the line is going to move a fair bit before the actual time. However, Im happy with what the GFS has outputted so far today.

I would however not expect the PPN to reach too far inland with the GFS overdoing its power somewhat.. Juts my thoughts though. I hope im wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Who said it can't. tease.gif

It just reminds me of the great december of 2010 (think it was that year) when snow hit every side of country and left a line from somerset to east anglia with a mere dusting even though it lasted for weeks. bristol does often get unlucky.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Back to the here and now..

That PPN front doesnt appear to be retaining any kind of strength. Pretty sure it will of died out by the time it reaches here ( according to the radar )

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Posted
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire
  • Location: Devizes Wiltshire

If only the Wunderground weather station for my town was correct. They are forecasting a -18 windchill on Saturday...Don't think so biggrin.png

1.8C here, with -2.2 DP

Haha yeah would not trust their forecasts! I trust that weather station though.. Its my old schools.. Can even see the camera facing the tennis courts and dauntsey's field lol

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Back to the here and now..

That PPN front doesnt appear to be retaining any kind of strength. Pretty sure it will of died out by the time it reaches here ( according to the radar )

Don't worry lynxus if we miss out on the first band you will get plenty of ppn monday from the second band....

Did I mention though it will be rain cray.gif

Edited by mullender83
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Posted
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire

Back to the here and now..

That PPN front doesnt appear to be retaining any kind of strength. Pretty sure it will of died out by the time it reaches here ( according to the radar )

I thought the first band was ment to be weak and not much falling as it came down.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Have some of that. yahoo.gif

post-7183-0-00936700-1358093140_thumb.pn

The above chart, coming courtesy of a netweather Extra full subscription. You won't be seeing many of these charts posted I'm afraid, as the boss won't be like it. What the chart above shows is proper style entrenched air, so we are just chasing snow thereon in after tomorrow's shenanigans. cold.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire

Well by 120 hours on the GFS and looks like a battle is happening, snow pushing in. I'm sure there will be more changes. Sorry no charts as I'm on the ipad. I'm sure someone will post them up.

edit..the rain/snow band dies at 132 hours only just reaches Hampshire. Looking good. Cold still intact and -10 air crossing SE.

Edited by SupaSnowy
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Don't worry lynxus if we miss out on the first band you will get plenty of ppn monday from the second band....

Did I mention though it will be rain cray.gif

I wouldn't write it off just yet, for us in the far north & east of the region, tomorrow is still of interest, just the wrong side of marginal presently, but local variences such as altitude, dew points etc could lead to some getting snow tomorrow, The Costwolds, The Downs, Salisbury plain even here in Lyneham!

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Purely eye candy, nothing else;

post-12721-0-47321600-1358093570_thumb.j

STALL. STALL. STALL

Lol, it actually does as well. Oh how I wish this was T6 and not T120.

Edited by AWD
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

It just reminds me of the great december of 2010 (think it was that year) when snow hit every side of country and left a line from somerset to east anglia with a mere dusting even though it lasted for weeks. bristol does often get unlucky.

True, but you're not in Bristol. Besides, I could give you a whole list of failed events from my neck of the woods. A large part of the early 1990s right through to 2008 were largely disappointing for me, but I can always go up to the local downs for my snow fix.

Game on I say.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35

Although subject to change considering difference fairly early on, potential wallop of snow on Friday for many regions in the West smile.png Bear in mind this is pretty much F.i but the trend is there for a front to move in. The key is in what orientation and how far. Another thing to note is the trends showing constant battleground between atlantic vs cold block to the E/NE. If this continues - the west could see a lot of snow but each time we will need luck as to how far less cold air moves in.

12Z GFS for Friday:

h850t850eu.png

prectypeuktopo.png

ukprec.png

Compared to the 06z run where the angle of the front was a bit less favourable:

h850t850eu.png

ukprec.png

prectypeuktopo.png

Edited by Chris K
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