South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 13/01/13 ---->

[Frosty_wsm]

could this be the first sign of some cross model agreement for the end of the week and bucket loads of snow for the south west!!!

[lfcdude]

It is rainingg

[Uncle Gargy]

Had a dusting of snow overnight just north of Bristol (170 feet), but all melted as the temps have increased and now have moderate rain. Lovely big flakes last night as well.

[AWD]

could this be the first sign of some cross model agreement for the end of the week and bucket loads of snow for the south west!!!

It is interesting for model watchers isn't it?

I just wish it wasn't so far away and was at T6 instead. Got to expect downgrades based on previous experience, but its nice to see a consistent trend currently.

[lynnsim]

Raining quite moderately now over Radstock with no chance of anything wintry here as the temperatures clamber up from 1C at dawn to 3.1C with the warm sector over the top. Those places in Hampshire that were lucky enough to see the snow are going to see a rapid change in the coming hours as the rain and warm sector slides further SSE and washes much of the snow away. Sorry to be a party pooper to you folks down there. Just saying it as I see it.

Thought as much Gibby! Still, it's nice to see settled snow even if it's temporary. I can see signs of a thaw, with the snow much more patchy on the path and the grass starting to show through.

Incidently, very light snow coming down now, but I expect to see it change soon.

[latitude]

Going by the 06 output, Friday looks good for snow. More snow chance later Saturday, but looks like a snow to rain event.

Anyway, thats miles off, its only Monday.

EDIT. SORRY THAT WAS FOR THE SW THREAD.

Edited January 14, 2013 by latitude

[Mapantz]

Current obs: 4.1°C and overcast.

[latitude]

Going by the 06 output, Friday looks good for snow. More snow chance later Saturday, but looks like a snow to rain event.

Anyway, thats miles off, its only Monday.

[Bristawl Si]

Latest 06z GFS again showing a snow event Friday;

Still a long way off but you got to admire the consistency of the GFS bringing in snowfall for Friday. Detail etc irrelevant, whether its all snow as this run suggests or snow - rain as previous runs suggest is irrelevant. I personally think south-westwards corrections could happen as the models get to grips with the strength of the block.

Anyway, anyone planning trips to Dartmouth for example better keep an eye on the forecast.

Hmmm....ponders how to break it to the wife that Friday could be an issue!

I just think that the block will be stronger by then and the progged snow event only happens over water to the west and south west of Cornwall!!

[Bumpkin]

Latest 06z GFS again showing a snow event Friday;

Still a long way off but you got to admire the consistency of the GFS bringing in snowfall for Friday. Detail etc irrelevant, whether its all snow as this run suggests or snow - rain as previous runs suggest is irrelevant. I personally think south-westwards corrections could happen as the models get to grips with the strength of the block.

Anyway, anyone planning trips to Dartmouth for example better keep an eye on the forecast.

I would be very impressed if that comes off after consistently being shown for days. The cynical side of me either expects that to disappear or turn out to be rain. Certainly something to keep an eye on.

Gone from drizzle to light rain now, meh

[AWD]

Hmmm....ponders how to break it to the wife that Friday could be an issue!

I just think that the block will be stronger by then and the progged snow event only happens over water to the west and south west of Cornwall!!

I agree, I think the block will prove stronger on future runs, and the event will be pushed SW. However, thats only speculation at this stage and consideration does have to be taken into account when all models suggests something similiar on Friday.

Will make interesting model viewing for sure, but for the sake of sanity, expect downgrades.

[swsnowlover]

Quite heavy rain here in Ashwater, North Devon. I'd love an excuse for a day off work to play with my children in the snow on Friday so bring it on I say!! (With apologies to those planning visits to the south of the county!!)

[Coast]

Britain wakes up to snow with more to come

Fears of overnight travel disruption prove unfounded but heavier snow expected in central and eastern England

Heavier snow is expected during the day on Monday in central and eastern England after an initial fall overnight proved less disruptive than expected. Some high-level roads were closed in Scotland and the Pennines but there has been little disruption to transport so far, other than airport warnings for travellers to allow extra time for their journeys.

Leeds Bradford airport, whose exposed site at Yeadon is one of the highest points locally, posted a notice of possible disruption in the early hours but removed the warning from its website at 7am, when commuter flights left as normal. Manchester airport advised travellers to make regular checks online. The Meteorological Office has raised its cold weather action status to grade three, one below a national emergency, to alert care and health agencies and neighbours to the likelihood of elderly and vulnerable people needing help. Forecasts suggest the long-delayed winter weather is setting in for several weeks after the wet but mild conditions since mid-December.

Chris Wellings, the head of UK policy at Save the Children, said: "The poorest families will struggle to cope with this cold snap. Parents on low incomes are already having difficulty affording even basic essentials such as warm winter clothing and a hot meal every day for their children as living costs continue to rise. "As temperatures plummet many simply don't have the money to heat their homes. The government must ensure that the poorest families can afford to keep warm."

Snowfalls could reach 10cm (4ins) in parts of Lincolnshire and the north-east of England, and the Met Office said: "This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services." The forecast suggests further but more modest snowfalls during the rest of the week, which will also see prolonged cold but sunny spells.

The pattern of conflicting cold and milder Atlantic fronts is complicated and the Met Office said: "There remains some uncertainty in the details throughout this period. However, on the whole it should remain on the cold and settled side across many parts of the United Kingdom, with a good deal of dry and frosty weather, especially for central and eastern areas. "There will also be some sleet and snow on occasions, with central and eastern areas most likely to be at risk. Also there will be an ongoing risk of icy stretches overnight, and freezing fog may also be an issue during the cold and clearer nights, which may be slow to clear by day. Some milder conditions and more persistent rain and hill snow may spread into western areas on occasions from next weekend onwards."

Nick Prebble, a forecaster with MeteoGroup, said snow was unlikely to exceed 5cms (2ins) in most of England, with temperatures reaching 8C (46F) in the west of England and Wales. Scotland is expected to get a "light dusting" on top of lying snow that fell over the weekend. Overnight temperatures are likely to fall to -8C (17.6F) degrees by Wednesday night. Snow is expected to turn into rainfall in western and southern areas and eight flood warnings are in place, six in the south-west, and 53 flood alerts, 28 in the south-east and 19 in the south-west. The AA has organised extra patrols to deal with an estimated 56,000 breakdowns, based on a survey that suggests three-quarters of drivers have been lulled into a false sense of security by the long mild spell.

The Highways Agency has declared an amber, or second level, alert but is more bullish than for years about snow and ice preparations, with 500 "state-of-the-art winter vehicles" ready to go into action. A spokesman said: "We have reviewed salt stock levels and taken action where needed to enhance our resilience and we have again established a reserve salt stock to help ensure that there is enough salt to deal with severe winter. "Our roads will be treated whenever there is a risk of ice or snow. However, even when roads have been treated, drivers should still take care, especially on stretches where the local road layout or landscape means there could be a greater risk of ice forming. Road users across England are also advised to check the latest weather forecast and road conditions before they travel."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2013/jan/14/snow-uk-weather

[latitude]

I agree, I think the block will prove stronger on future runs, and the event will be pushed SW. However, thats only speculation at this stage and consideration does have to be taken into account when all models suggests something similiar on Friday.

Will make interesting model viewing for sure, but for the sake of sanity, expect downgrades.

Not to confuse people, but AWD means a downgrade in snow potential, but better cold potential.

[Olly]

First post... I know is a small way off but Ian F just tweeted : fergieweather

W COUNTRY Rain today, but @metoffice keeping close eye on uncertain developments Fri into weekend: moderate potential for significant snow.

14/01/2013 10:18

[AWD]

Not to confuse people, but AWD means a downgrade in snow potential, but better cold potential.

Yeah sorry, thanks for that. Cold is pretty certain up until Friday/Saturday now after today's rain has cleared.

[Nights King]

Wet and nasty here in bristol but not sure whats falling at home with a temperature up mendip of around 1.5c.

Jeth?

My guess would be fridays snow sticks in models until about wed/thursday before being downgraded to nothing.

Edited January 14, 2013 by mullender83

[karlos1983]

Light Sleet in Ferndown, east Dorset, expecting rain though rather than snow

[gottolovethisweather]

First post... I know is a small way off but Ian F just tweeted : fergieweather

W COUNTRY Rain today, but @metoffice keeping close eye on uncertain developments Fri into weekend: moderate potential for significant snow.

14/01/2013 10:18

Nice.

Which correlates nicely with this information from earlier, should you click on the link.

http://forum.netweat...60#entry2495589

Get the cold in and the snow should come.

I await the GFS 12z and of course, other outputs to confirm the continuation of this potentially prolonged spell.

Edited January 14, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[coxxy22]

makes me sick looking at all that blue on the radar lol lol

[slb97]

Dusting of snow in Horndean, nothing falling at the moment, neither snow nor rain.

[Wilks]

Band just reached here and all snow, small flakes but no sleet or rain mixed in.

[nettie]

Just started raining here. Temp 1c

[Lynxus]

Just rain here

Heavy, Mild , Rain

It is pretty damn epic that 7 days ago, Last friday was going to be the start of it all , With Saturday showing LOTS of snow, Then LOTS of snow for the SW on Mon into Tues and on Wednesday.

Now its.

(Possible) Snow at the weekend ( That will probably be rain anyway )

Im tempted to not bother following the models anymore. The "trend" is wrong. The outputs are wrong.. Is it even worth it when they are consistently backtracking 12h before..

Edited January 14, 2013 by Lynxus

[Mapantz]

From an IMBY perspective it hasn't been that cold here yet, no frost or ice either so unless things change during the week, it won't be much of a cold spell here.

This is not a moan-post or anything, i just find it interesting how we can use the 'IMBY' even if we live, say .. 30 miles away from each other.