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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

So have we still got a chance of an embedded trough in the north easterly flow wed/thurs?

It would be a long haul over the whole of england to reach us but I'll take anything currently rofl.gifgood.gif

I think its risky to get excited about friday as meto view is the block may well be stronger than modeled because of the ssw... Hope I am wrong though.

The easterly flow is very slack now it seems.

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Posted
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent
  • Location: Southsea, Portsmouth on the Costa Del Solent

Well it didn't snow in Southsea as expected, woke up at 5am to see it raining, though northern parts of Portsmouth had a light dusting as did Hayling Island! cray.gif Still raining now & 5.5C after a low of 2C.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The easterly flow is very slack now it seems.

Nothing Marginal about that if it verifies!!! under heavy PPN I would imagine too!!

gfs-2-96.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Nothing Marginal about that if it verifies!!! under heavy PPN I would imagine too!!

gfs-2-96.png?6

I was refering to the next couple of days. You can see it on the isobars

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)

Here are the various fronts moving through and expected times:

LOC_20130114_0900.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

Keeping an eye on the numerous hefty showers coming down the Irish sea and off the SW of Scotland.

According to the NMM they're heading towards central southern England ...as the warm sector moves away and DP drops some could fall as a dusting of snow this evening/tonight. (Its called grasping at straws!)

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Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Wind, Sunny, Warm, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Devon

Friday!!!!

Risk is certainly there for a good snow event towards the end of the week for our region!!

Both the Euros go for the undercut with a south east wind and ppn moving in off the Atlantic, the perfect scenario for us.

Rukm1201.gif

Recm1201.gif

GFS brings the snow potential in a little earlier

Rtavn961.png

This is something that needs watching closely, if we get lucky this could be very good. But as ever at 4/5 days it's open to changes.

Also done a little chart for those newbies learning about the models, a south east wind is crucial and very helpful when looking to get snow out of a situation where milder air is coming up against a cold block. Today's non event moved in from the north west which is a totally different kettle of fish to what is being hinted at for Friday.

Having the wind in from the south east means the milder/moister Atlantic air picks up and mixes with the much drier cold air off the continent, this means dw points are lower and 850s can be higher and snow still fall,

Sewinds1_zps8dacdec4.jpg

Thankyou for this although I'm just going to be quietly optimistic as any snow that has been preforecasted for the likes of Devon and Cornwall tends to get downgraded a hell of a lot so I'll be very quietly hopeful....

Thankyou for posting this though, it's really informative

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Posted
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Heatwave, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Canary Wharf, Docklands, London

WeatherOnline use GFS

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Posted
  • Location: Poole
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Hot Sun (but not at the same time!) 57m asl
  • Location: Poole

Oh how I wish it was Thursday evening and we were seeing these charts. I wouldn't get any sleep though!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Those showers in north Wales are beefing up and definitely seem to be heading to central southern England, when are temps meant to drop back to be conducive for snow?

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Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon

Met office and BBC still forecasting heavy snow at midnight tonight IMBY. Anyone think this is possible or are they way off the mark?

Nowcasting 4.7c, sunny intervals.

Edited by Beast of Dartmoor
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Posted
  • Location: Southampton
  • Weather Preferences: Heat and thunderstorms, snow in winter
  • Location: Southampton

Had a little bit of light snow in Southampton this morning, but the last couple of hours just heavy rain. Can't help being a bit jealous of those further north but hopefully the end of the week will deliver for us down here.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Could get something between Midnight and 6am tomorrow looking at the NAE Precip.

Midnight PPN heading out of SE Wales

13011500_1406.gif

at 6am Tuesday heading across the Channel into Cherbourg area

13011506_1406.gif

apologies if I'm reading it wrong, but that's what I think I'm seeing?

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Posted
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire
  • Location: Fareham Hampshire

Rain rain rain, was expecting it to be honest. Just that little bit to warm. All good, now looking forward to Friday, I'm sure lots of changes to come yet.

Not sure if that band of snow will make it that far into Hampshire on Friday, hey it might even not make it into the west at all. We she'll see what the next GFS will bring. All good fun. Be good once it gets into the NAE and NMM timeframe.

Feeling colder in my flat then it is outside. Maybe it has more chance of snow in my flat.

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Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003

Friday!!!!

Risk is certainly there for a good snow event towards the end of the week for our region!!

Both the Euros go for the undercut with a south east wind and ppn moving in off the Atlantic, the perfect scenario for us.

Rukm1201.gif

Recm1201.gif

GFS brings the snow potential in a little earlier

Rtavn961.png

This is something that needs watching closely, if we get lucky this could be very good. But as ever at 4/5 days it's open to changes.

Also done a little chart for those newbies learning about the models, a south east wind is crucial and very helpful when looking to get snow out of a situation where milder air is coming up against a cold block. Today's non event moved in from the north west which is a totally different kettle of fish to what is being hinted at for Friday.

Having the wind in from the south east means the milder/moister Atlantic air picks up and mixes with the much drier cold air off the continent, this means dw points are lower and 850s can be higher and snow still fall,

Sewinds1_zps8dacdec4.jpg

Lets hope that the 15:30 GFS still shows this potential!

I will be screaming with joy if this is similar come Thursday.

[edit], this site is oddly quiet today..

Edited by Lynxus
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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

Could get something between Midnight and 6am tomorrow looking at the NAE Precip.

Midnight PPN heading out of SE Wales

13011500_1406.gif

at 6am Tuesday heading across the Channel into Cherbourg area

13011506_1406.gif

apologies if I'm reading it wrong, but that's what I think I'm seeing?

Interestingly the NMM has a more defined risk of snow flurries overnight tonight;

post-12721-0-17065500-1358172325_thumb.j

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Interestingly the NMM has a more defined risk of snow flurries overnight tonight;

post-12721-0-17065500-1358172325_thumb.j

Could that be coming from the wrap around maybe having more of a westerly shift?

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Posted
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl
  • Location: Bramley, Hampshire, 70m asl

Those showers in north Wales are beefing up and definitely seem to be heading to central southern England, when are temps meant to drop back to be conducive for snow?

I'm not sure where you are Ali, but up here in N Hampshire temps are meant to drop below 0c around 7pm but dewpoints not below 0c until around 10pm.

So my guess is no chance of snow until after 10pm unless the Dps dip earlier than this....and of course we need some precipitation to turn up!

Edited by Kiwi
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Posted
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL
  • Location: Bracknell, Berkshire 77m ASL

yahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gifyahoo.gif

We got a good accumulation on the cars this morning when I got up! Lots of lovely, very fluffy snow. I've not known snow to be that fluffy before unknw.gif The trees looked beautiful on my drive to work.

Then we had a period of snizzle (love that word) before lots more big lovely flakes which fell for a couple of hours! Very pretty to watch.

Very little has settled though. Pavements and roads just wet.

It is currently 1.6c now with a DP of 1c and Wet Bulb 1.3c (would love to know what that means doh.gif )

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

Those showers in north Wales are beefing up and definitely seem to be heading to central southern England, when are temps meant to drop back to be conducive for snow?

Hi Ali,

Any chance you could update your profile to show your location when you get a second please. good.gif

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