Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[orcacrew]

pembs dangler is looking a bit of a beast on radar - anyone under it tell us what it's doing?

Raining

[Jackfrost]

Absolute chaos on the roads around Merthyr. Unbelievably,I think the roads were untreated last night

Can vouch for that. I'm right on the Merthyr/Caerphilly border. The main roads here are generally fine, while they're apparently treacherous over in Treharris (and all over Merthyr). Damn council.

[dingdong]

Absolute chaos on the roads around Merthyr. Unbelievably,I think the roads were untreated last night

Yes Matty, roads here in Caerphilly were untreated. It seems councils were not prepared for the snow that fell.

Andy, I agree with what you are saying, charts are good but a little caution is needed in order to prevent unnecessary panic. Looking good for snow Friday-Saturday, marginal at low levels and in the west. Thereafter it becomes very marginal under 250m Sunday/Monday but back edge snow and a resurgence if the block could prevail. Then (and only then) can we start thinking about 1947.

I'm off out in the frozen roads to morrisons

Cheers

DD

Edited January 15, 2013 by dingdong

[Panayiotis]

Caerphilly mountains just north of me look amazing with the snow cover, ill upload a photo later!

[Blackjack]

Car parks in Merthyr are skating rinks.

Very interesting to see the developments for Friday. GFS with us soon. Lets see what it holds in store.

[CRACKPOT]

Friday looks good on the surface but if the angle is wrong or progression too quick we are going to get the usual mild pushing ahead of the front which is not good news for Wales.

Much water under the bridge yet - latest musings are for the cold lasting into next week...... and more...... interesting if the NE flow can be set up and stay around.

JK

[welshwizard]

Absolute chaos on the roads around Merthyr. Unbelievably,I think the roads were untreated last night

I drove all along that area last night and it was awful,i did see gritters out but they where going the other way ha ha,worst area I past was Tredegar area and trefil. I can only imagine how bad the conditions are there this morn.

[Stevetynant]

Whatever tarnspires over the next few weeks most would have given their hind teeth for these synoptics in November and December when it seemed like winter was never going to arrive

[Pembroke Dangler]

06z gfs to progressive I think pushing the front through on Friday, that will likely correct west and south by the 12z fingers crossed! Otherwise a 6-12 hour snow to sleet then rain event before fizzling out and a ridge builds behind it!

[Jackfrost]

Latest runs roughly sticking to the plan, with the front pushing into the block and stalling across the south and west of the UK, giving moderate to heavy snow on Friday; the weekend is still a little uncertain but slightly milder air could push across us before the block wins out. The cold is slightly further East than before, but not far enough to worry us and it's likely to be shifted west again.

The consistency with each run regarding this snow event is reassuring. One will not be amused if it all goes tits up.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Jackfrost

[mikeocarroll]

Quick pic of the hotel here this morning, you can see a light overing of snow - not much on the roof means I need better insulation:

[matty lfc]

I still think Friday's event will be very marginal event for us in wales. Rapid snow to rain event possibly?

[CRACKPOT]

I still think Friday's event will be very marginal event for us in wales. Rapid snow to rain event possibly?

That certainly looks the case now, as expected, snow to rain becoming the call today.

JK

[Snowmadsam]

That certainly looks the case now, as expected, snow to rain becoming the call today.

JK

right ok, a few things...

1.) this event is still a while away so it could change

2.) Angles haven't been sorted out yet

3.) The situation is constantly changing, so no point in jumping to conclusions at this stage

Let's keep the hope alive guys

Edited January 15, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[DeepSnow]

Just wet out thismorning, doesn't even look icy! Don't think we saw much after midnight.

[Matty23]

this front is coming in thurs nite so i suppose tomorrow night will be pretty sure for whats going to happen as only 24 hours away

[bradymk]

At the moment, limited snow friday to saturday for majority of Wales HOWEVER im not so sure on this, i dont think there would be that much NE extent from the front, GFS 6z shows precip reaching the far east of england, unlikely, lets see what Met think. Im hoping for at least some snow here in Pembs, it looks just rain if gfs 6z is right.

[CRACKPOT]

right ok, a few things...

1.) this event is still a while away so it could change

2.) Angles haven't been sorted out yet

3.) The situation is constantly chaining, so no point in jumping to conclusions at this stage

Let's keep the hope alive guys

Isn't this a discussion forum? I have been around the forums and had a few tweets from some of the forecasters and that is the consensus. Not once I have said this is fact - and if you look at my previous posts in this thread - I have stated a few days away and Thursday lunchtime we will have a better and more definitive idea what is happening.

I will stop my posting then- crikey!

JK

Edited January 15, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[Marcus_surfer]

I still think Friday's event will be very marginal event for us in wales. Rapid snow to rain event possibly?

Likely

[Bobby]

GFS and ensembles and ECM trending to a more rainy affair than a stalling blizzard. The Met O outlook looks better though as does the GEM so still a good chance of a good dumping, and a good chance of another damp squib.

[bradymk]

GFS and ensembles and ECM trending to a more rainy affair than a stalling blizzard. The Met O outlook looks better though as does the GEM so still a good chance of a good dumping, and a good chance of another damp squib.

Yes fair assesment, i would say good chance of a snow event but just as good of a chance of it being all rain now (especially for my area)

[The Weather Dragon]

No snow for Lowland Pembrokeshire on Friday - Although the Preselis will more than likley see some snow. Very much on the wrong side of marginal

[matty lfc]

Glorious day in Merthyr today although I expects the the temps to drop like a stone from 4 onwards. We need to be very careful on the roads tonight.

[Bafan]

Meto weather warning been issued for snow on Friday!

[mikeocarroll]

The following Meto warning covers the whole of Wales. Their matrix says at the moment low confidence but potentially high impact, which is why the warning has gone out already.

Issued at: 1233 on Tue 15 Jan 2013

Valid from: 0900 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

Valid to: 2355 on Fri 18 Jan 2013

As the weather breaks down, there is the potential for a spell of snow to spread from the southwest. As winds strengthen, blizzard conditions are a possibility, especially over high ground. Accumulations of 2-5 cm are possible quite widely and in some locations, especially higher ground, 15 cm are possible.

The public should be aware of the possibility of travel disruption. This warning is likely to be updated over the next few days.