Wales Cymru Regional Discussion - January 15th 2013>

[keithlucky]

Still I see the first front stalling over Wales giving general snow across Wales Friday with blizzard especially over high ground(expect the met office to upgrade our weather warning to red) front then fizzling out Saturday ,Sunday another front pushes in from the S West proving more snow for Wales slightly warmer air starts to move into West Wales with snow slowly turning back to rain,remaining as snow over high ground over Wales .But even into next week never warm a pretty cold westerlies with -2 uppers.

Edited January 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[soupsurfer7]

People (in model thread) have been saying that the models may be underestimating the strength of the block and the fronts could stall... Usually, I've only ever seen the Atlantic win ( either fast or slow), but has anyone who is older than me remember otherwise?

[alijoe]

Apparently awd in south thread looked on ian ferg twitter to matt hugo.... said more confidence now of rain breaking through friday now from south west ... cant post it as on phone. already seeing prob a downgrade and it is only tiesday :-( do understand nothing set in stone of course and change cam happen either way. but i really am going to try not to get my hopes up.

[Bonjangle]

Looking very nice .

[soupsurfer7]

May be a case of getting up early on Friday to see the snow before it turns to rain.

[keithlucky]

People (in model thread) have been saying that the models may be underestimating the strength of the block and the fronts could stall... Usually, I've only ever seen the Atlantic win ( either fast or slow), but has anyone who is older than me remember otherwise?

See in before 1982 the front tries to make westward progress it cannot because HP to the N EAST so it pivots 1982 24hrs of constant snow then the 2 front then pivots also because it cannot make progress northwards so it sits on Wales until it just fizzles out.

[DeepSnow]

Think this is my best chance of seeing snow so far this winter so with some luck things will go right for us in Wales and it will be an all snow event!! Will be interesting to see what the charts tomorrow and Thursday show us, maybe with a shift southwest to make it better for us would be great!!

[Stevetynant]

Apparently awd in south thread looked on ian ferg twitter to matt hugo.... said more confidence now of rain breaking through friday now from south west ... cant post it as on phone. already seeing prob a downgrade and it is only tiesday :-( do understand nothing set in stone of course and change cam happen either way. but i really am going to try not to get my hopes up.

Too late hope are already too way up to calm back down - if this downgrade to rain after 98% of posts pointing in the other direction will be time to give up - too much disappointment. Am already planning to work from home on Friday and lampost watch all the night

[RainyNWales]

Yeah it would be nice if this came off, could do with a long weekend haha. Hopefully by 8am i cant get out the house but i will believe it when i see with the record for the North Wales coast

[keithlucky]

The best blizzard we had was 1978 wind same as now forecasted for Friday S Easterly gale force winds rain was forecast and sleet and snow started over the mountains snowing at lower levels 6pm on a Friday blizzard lasted until following morning 20 foot drifts fantastic memory of digging your way to people front doors LOL.

Edited January 15, 2013 by keithlucky

[Daniel Miller]

Hmm, don't worry yet you in the West, I have a feeling the Easterly extend of mild won't be as far-reaching as is currently projected. We shall see, but watch for this over the evening and into tomorrow.

[mikeocarroll]

Just one chart I want to post this evening which is GFS 12z ensembles (these are for Powys):

There are two key points to be drawn from this I think:

1) Look at the huge divergence for 18 Jan (Friday), a rare degree of divergence for just over 48hours away, with upper air temps ranging from +3c according to some peturbations, to -9c with others. Neither of those would be great for a snow event as the one would be too mild (leading to rain) while the other suggests the absence of any mild incursion, in which case it would be dry. Therefore there is low confidence in Friday's snow event with around 1/3 of members going for snow to rain (relatively rapidly), the majority going for more or less all snow for Powys, and a small possibility (around 10%) of the front not really reaching Powys at all. It should be said that this is an extremely rough and ready analysis as there is only so much can be gained from looking at solely 850hPA temps and in a single location at that.

2) The other notable is the high confidence in this set of ensembles for continuing cold, the mean upper temp stays around -5c throughout which is well below the seasonal average with no peturbations at all go for sustained average temperatures let alone mild. So we may have more opportunities for cold and snow over the coming few weeks, which would tie in with speculations about the effect of the sudden stratospheric warming that began last week. Something worth bearing in mind for those of us who end up disappointed with the weather over the next few days (and it is the nature of these events that someone, somewhere is going to miss out, at least relatively).

Edited January 15, 2013 by mikeocarroll

[ourson]

So is this snowy period this coming friday pretty much nailed on then? Consider it less than 72hrs away now, pretty much all of wales under the white stuff from derek's forecast,what your views, which areas of wales is likely to get most?

It's nailed on in Cardiff - I can fell it in my water/ice. My locality will get an absolute pasting, while other areas may not do so well.

I am basing this forecast on 100% hope-casting and faith in God, Allah or any other spiritual being that may or may not exist. I will get the sledge out. I will make a snowman. I will make a snow angel (and then regret it immediately). I will drink mulled wine. I will drink port. I will drink Irish Coffee. I will fall down. I will snore and p**s the Mrs off. I predict all of these things. They will happen.

Edited January 15, 2013 by ourson

[dyl232]

Lol i like the way your confident 8-) hmm no guinness? Lol.. What your thought about us here in north wales then? 8-)

It's nailed on in Cardiff - I can fell it in my water/ice. My locality will get an absolute pasting, while other areas may not do so well.

I am basing this forecast on 100% hope-casting and faith in God, Allah or any other spiritual being that may or may not exist. I will get the sledge out. I will make a snowman. I will make a snow angel (and then regret it immediately). I will drink mulled wine. I will drink port. I will drink Irish Coffee. I will fall down. I will snore and p**s the Mrs off. I predict all of these things. They will happen.

Edited January 15, 2013 by dyl232

[J10]

Fax Chart goes with UKMO - a very good sign.

Met office website shows snow over nearly all of Wales.

Of Course UKMO model was the best for snow prospect in short term, others not so good.

[ourson]

Lol i like the way your confident 8-) hmm no guinness? Lol.. What your thought about us here in north wales then? 8-)

Yep - cewch chi'r guiness. You can have the guiness.

[FROZENFOOT]

feeling totally confused ..

some say........... rain no snow

some say .......lots of snow all weekend.

some say .....no snow just cold.

some say.........snow turning to rain.

some say .........hard luck you are in the snow hope postcode lottery .........it could be you.

can anyone here give us a little clue as to what really is the most likelihood of this weekend>

[soupsurfer7]

[Daniel Miller]

feeling totally confused ..

some say........... rain no snow

some say .......lots of snow all weekend.

some say .....no snow just cold.

some say.........snow turning to rain.

some say .........hard luck you are in the snow hope postcode lottery .........it could be you.

can anyone here give us a little clue as to what really is the most likelihood of this weekend>

Friday: Snowfall for the majority of Wales, potentially all - but there is the possibility that the milder air forces its way further inland.

Thing is though, all of what you said could at this stage, come true. Time will tell, but as I said before, watch for the westward shift of colder air overnight and tomorrow (I hope) :L

[georgiedre]

Friday: Snowfall for the majority of Wales, potentially all - but there is the possibility that the milder air forces its way further inland.

Thing is though, all of what you said could at this stage, come true. Time will tell, but as I said before, watch for the westward shift of colder air overnight and tomorrow (I hope) :L

heres to wishing for cold and snow all weekend. gfs 12z showed snow all weekend for nwales what about swales?

[dyl232]

Would be nice to have a full day of none stop snow, dont think iv seen this happen before, could this be the outcome this friday I HOPE SO!!!!!!!!!!!!

heres to wishing for cold and snow all weekend. gfs 12z showed snow all weekend for nwales what about swales?

[Snowmadsam]

feeling totally confused ..

some say........... rain no snow

some say .......lots of snow all weekend.

some say .....no snow just cold.

some say.........snow turning to rain.

some say .........hard luck you are in the snow hope postcode lottery .........it could be you.

can anyone here give us a little clue as to what really is the most likelihood of this weekend>

Some say...that he can ride a horse upside down, and that during the Olympic ceremony he was the one flying out of the plane.....all we know is HE'S CALLED THE STIG!

haha....

ok seriousness now, UKMO looks great! Question is...is it right?

Edited January 15, 2013 by Snowmadsam

[RainyNWales]

Would be nice to have a full day of none stop snow, dont think iv seen this happen before, could this be the outcome this friday I HOPE SO!!!!!!!!!!!!

Same here, never seen it snow constantly for a long time around these parts, maybe this is the event we have been waiting years for

[snefnug]

On a lighter note, my probably slightly mad but lovely husband bought me "The Wrong Kind Of Snow" book for my birthday - a great read and one that I can bore him with weather related facts for years!!

Added bonus, cute and cheeky chappy Tomaz is back on the Beeb.

( does birdie happy dance)

[dyl232]

Early early hours friday right through late fri/early sat poss, :0 :0 :0 this might be it. This is our turn!!!! Get them beers in :-p

Same here, never seen it snow constantly for a long time around these parts, maybe this is the event we have been waiting years for