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Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.


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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

If things pan out like this, the UKMO will have covered itself in true glory!

I do think that the UKMO model has been top notch recently. I read there was an upgrade done to it - when was that??

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)

However - the potentially errant 12z NAE prog for Thurs is a possible major spoiler and albeit we have it discounted for now..... watch this space. Fri considered 'low probability, severe impact' event currently and we need greater continuity through next 24hrs.

Ian how is the NAE regarded? I was given to understand it is a high-res model just for Europe but how does it compare with the "secret" Met Office models?

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Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago

However - the potentially errant 12z NAE prog for Thurs is a possible major spoiler and albeit we have it discounted for now..... watch this space. Fri considered 'low probability, severe impact' event currently and we need greater continuity through next 24hrs.

Didn't I read some where (probably on here) that hi-res output is not infallible and, indeed, they sometimes get it just as wrong as lower res models albiet in more detail? Anyway, no doubt no judgement will be made until a few more runs on other models are seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

I continue to be less than convinced that the models have got this one right especially as the models have upgraded the pressure rise to the ne at 120hrs, this most evident on the UKMO 120hrs.

Looks like the forecast just got a whole load tougher!

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

You probably get tired of people asking but it would be invaluable if you could give us Exeters thoughts on who they think will be hit by this.

How far north and East etc....

Your probable answer would be "still uncertain" as the models are still changing and the event is 3 days away and a lot can change within that time.
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Posted
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Anything Extreme
  • Location: Epsom, Surrey, 100 Meters above sea level

My god, if the GFS comes off as modeled parts of the East are going to get completely hammered, not only from yesterday's / today's snow, but the weekend, and then again on Tuesday.

It's a running theme, that is you get the first pulse of energy to undercut, the rest seems to follow

The Jet is string and running well to our South this at + 144

A joy to behold for the snow and cold lovers, if the actual outcome is anything like it's showing now when it's + 24 away, I think a few phone calls to the elderly we know and a few bits and pieces of food for the wildlife might be a kind and helpful gesture, but I would wait until Thursday before making any phone calls , as there's plenty of time for change....from a selfish and IMBY perspective, this is by a country mile the best chart of the Winter, although it would be marginal even on this run for us along the South Coast .

hgt300.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

Tuesday and the cold is still with us, and we may be looking at another possible undercut, look at the extent of the cold wow!

post-17320-0-55559000-1358266933_thumb.p

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

and although the ukmo has souesters for the southern half of the uk, it should be noted that the uk stays below 528 dam so they will be chilly souesters. a forecasting nightmare if that gets close to verification.

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Posted
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf
  • Location: Central London near Canary Wharf

As chio said cold re inforcements try to make there way back.......blimey

gfsnh-1-168.png?12

and seem to be succeeding!

gfsnh-1-174.png?12

Edited by ChartViewer
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Looks like Kent might STILL be missed!

These are some amazing charts though, best since the December almost chart!

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

NAE is higher res, yes? Remember how when the UKMO first modelled the undercutting scenario (Sunday night?) it was also treated with (healthy) scepticism.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: heavy convective snow showers, blizzards, 30C sunshine
  • Location: Darlington

Epic http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1561.png, and whilst it is FI it is not deep fi!! I think this will be the broad evolution that apart from the fact i think everything will be 250miles further south, im getting excited yet concerned at the same time here, i love snow but i still want to get to work. I dont think ukmo at 144 is quite as good though

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Posted
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sun, Heat, Cold,T/storms via Spanish plumes *rare*
  • Location: Cardiff/Reading Uni

If the GFS 12z verifies it could well tie in with the greatest cold spells, lasting more than 10 days with snow always a constant threat, but not holding my breath just yet, from one run!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

I continue to be less than convinced that the models have got this one right especially as the models have upgraded the pressure rise to the ne at 120hrs, this most evident on the UKMO 120hrs.

Looks like the forecast just got a whole load tougher!

Im exactly the same Nick.

Quiet an unusual set up because normally you associate a front moving in from the Atlantic bringing milder temps but due to the pivoting front we actually see colder upper temps arrive from the E. Looking at the predicted temps when the front arrives it certainly won't be marginal because widely temps are below freezing and so are the dewpoints (-3C), upper temps across the E at -10C.

Where im dubious is how the front even manages to get to my region. Now history tells me it never makes it this far NE. Looking at the UKMO between +72 & +96 and im unconvinced whats its showing.

So for now I would say Wales, SW, W Midlands have plenty to be excited about but for the rest of us I would hold on a while.

Edited by THE EYE IN THE SKY
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Ukmo at T96 looks fantastic for around London northwards to me surely even with that undercut would drag warm upper into the south? Some astonishing snow totals possible

And Im not an expert on this matter but is that Atlantic trough beginning to take a more negative orientation?

I expect there will be a correction south. Based on that I would say midlands, south to get heavy snow falls apart from extreme southwest which would get rain.

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Posted
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)
  • Location: Yateley, NE Hampshire (Berks/Surrey borders)

Epic http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1561.png, and whilst it is FI it is not deep fi!! I think this will be the broad evolution that apart from the fact i think everything will be 250miles further south, im getting excited yet concerned at the same time here, i love snow but i still want to get to work. I dont think ukmo at 144 is quite as good though

Maybe not as good but not mild by any stretch. 526dam in London, 523dam in Birmingham even as the low rolls in at 144hrs.

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