South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->

[gottolovethisweather]

Touch and go on the last run, but some would be pleased with this surely?

Reminds of the Madonna song Borderline. It looks like snow for some and rain for others but is also a long way off. Not until <t+6 or so will know our chances.

[Lynxus]

Looks to me like a stalling front making very little progress Eastwards, which was kind of what the GEFS 12z ensembles suggested, although defaulting to zonal by Sunday.

Anybody else?

Yeah,

Im not convinced by the zonality . GFS defaults to it anyway..

If the HP holds and pushes it back ( like its showing ) it ( to me ) would be hard pressed at pushing the cold completely away.

15:30 will be interesting to say the least.

[westysweather]

i really hope that this shifts back west in the 12z's, just a bit more confidence. i think myself along with other would be gutted if we missed out on the snowiest weather in 30 years by 40 miles!the most snow i have witnessed here in exeter where i live was the 9" that was dumped on the 21st dec 2010 (i think)

Edited January 15, 2013 by westysweather

[Bristawl Si]

Yeah,

Im not convinced by the zonality . GFS defaults to it anyway..

If the HP holds and pushes it back ( like its showing ) it ( to me ) would be hard pressed at pushing the cold completely away.

15:30 will be interesting to say the least.

I'm basically ignoring the GFS on this event, esp for the fine detail of where and when.

Sticking with Meto, ecm and Ian's updates.

yes they'll chop and change but that's the nature of this particular beast, me thinks.

This is not a classic 78/79 type event imo, as a couple of posters in the Mad disc forum have alluded to. Back then proper cold air was already entrenched and the south west and south situ was not marginal. This event seems to have much more marginality about it for our whole region.

[DanDorsetUK]

Got to admire everyones positive attitude! But personally im going with a rain event and for the warm air to win over on friday into saturday and week after. If it does snow get out there quick cos i feel it will turn to slush with rain quickly following after.

[Lynxus]

Got to admire everyones positive attitude! But personally im going with a rain event and for the warm air to win over on friday into saturday and week after. If it does snow get out there quick cos i feel it will turn to slush with rain quickly following after.

Indeed, If that block doesnt hold well then it will be very much a snow to rain event.

if the block even holds slightly then it may be snow all the way ( With the eastern extent variable )

If the block holds REALLY strong then it will only be a very much far west and south west event with all snow.

[shedhead]

Best chances to the north and east of Brizzol imo, but would not be surprised to see at least a spell of battleground snow for at least 80% of the region, with only those in S and W Cornwall and perhaps S Devon currently looking highly likely to miss out altogether.

Expect plenty more swings across the next 48hrs as all models try to nail the detail, but in truth this will remain elusive up until 6-12hrs from the event and even then short term changes will occur...Why? Because they always do!

Saw plenty of these type of battleground setups down here through the 80's and I'm far from convinced much has changed regarding our ability to accurately forecast their outcomes across the last 30 years. This look just as difficult/complicated now as they ever did and that's why some expected to be very disappointed will actually be elated and visa versa...just as back in the day.

[gottolovethisweather]

Got to admire everyones positive attitude! But personally im going with a rain event and for the warm air to win over on friday into saturday and week after. If it does snow get out there quick cos i feel it will turn to slush with rain quickly following after.

I think you're right to be cautious and the positivity will undoubtedly come from those who have elevation and/or their location on their side. Unfortunately those nearer to the coastline will obviously not be as fortunate.

My glass is always half full when viewing the model output as our weather, unlike Ronseal, never does what it states on the tin.

I do hope the colder uppers become even more entrenced over the coming days and that the front stalls as it attempts to move up from the SW.

If it does and it is a big IF, we could have a very decent event on our hands. I am not posting from IMBY either here as I am simply referring to locations further West and Southwest of me.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[tomhow]

Hmmm, yesterdays 12z, 18z and last nights 00z all moved the cold air on friday morning backwards and forwards by about 20 miles - no trend. The 6z this morning has moved the really cold uppers from around Dorset right back to Kent. Thickness has deteriorated as well.

I presume the 12z will come back west a bit.

Mind you , uppers and thickness aside, the 2m figures are bloody cold all along the south coast

I think tomorrows 12z is the clincher - by then the models will know how much the cold got disrupted by tonight's feature sliding south into france.

[SunnySouthCoast]

Well still waiting for the cold snap to start here, min of 3C last night & 6C currently

[quantock girl]

Being an optimist, the one positive going on the BBC weather at lunch time was that Friday's rain to snow starts down in Cornwall. Usually the battleground is East Devon/West Somerset boundaries and it is then the freezing rain scenario hits me while Bristol gets the fun and games.

The battle is not yet lost - but I wish it was Friday already... or

[DanDorsetUK]

Well still waiting for the cold snap to start here, min of 3C last night & 6C currently

Yep Temperature 5.6 °C in Bournbemouth but with a low Dew Point -0.5 °C i may add.

[karlos1983]

Lol, the Met O warnings has really put a dampner in the Mod Thread, all gone very quiet.

Nervously awaiting the outcome of the 12z for IMBY and the rest of our region! Good luck gals and guys, ill be watching from behind the sofa, especially for the UKMO and ECM!!

4.2 in Ferndown, DP -2C, sun out all day may I add!,

Edited January 15, 2013 by karlos1983

[DanDorsetUK]

Lol, the Met O warnings has really put a dampner in the Mod Thread, all gone very quiet.

Nervously awaiting the outcome of the 12z for IMBY and the rest of our region! Good luck gals and guys, ill be watching from behind the sofa, especially for the UKMO and ECM!!

4.2 in Ferndown, DP -2C, sun out all day may I add!,

Where are you getting those temps from? Your only up the road from me! Quite a big difference within 2 miles

[Chris K]

Lol, the Met O warnings has really put a dampner in the Mod Thread, all gone very quiet.

I doubt its intentional, but I find the MOD thread is a bit biased to Eastern/SE areas. After all that is where the highest population density is. Nothing wrong with that, but it is one reason why I do prefer the regional thread at this time of year particularly. A bit calmer and more detail for our local areas.

I'm trying to hold in excitement for Friday. Just having the potential has me rocking in my chair. Will call in the white coats until Thursday night I think.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Chris K

[Chul]

How is it looking for Southampton?. . . . . Find the charts etc so confusing , can anyone give me any insight please?!!! are we going to miss out AGAIN!!!!!!?

[gottolovethisweather]

Hmmm, yesterdays 12z, 18z and last nights 00z all moved the cold air on friday morning backwards and forwards by about 20 miles - no trend. The 6z this morning has moved the really cold uppers from around Dorset right back to Kent. Thickness has deteriorated as well.

I presume the 12z will come back west a bit.

Mind you , uppers and thickness aside, the 2m figures are bloody cold all along the south coast

I think tomorrows 12z is the clincher - by then the models will know how much the cold got disrupted by tonight's feature sliding south into france.

Yes, a trend is harder to determine when looking at the consecutive runs and I believe they are simply fun to look at, i.e. good for fantasy island eye candy.

As Gibby hinted at on the other thread as shown below.

http://forum.netweat...40#entry2503654

We should perhaps only look at two daily runs in order to attempt a determination of trend. In the end, the trend will inevitably only come from analysing the ensembles on like for like runs, at best.

GFS runs are out 4 times a day resulting in 4 different runs, says it all really.

Edited January 15, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Coast]

How is it looking for Southampton?. . . . . Find the charts etc so confusing , can anyone give me any insight please?!!! are we going to miss out AGAIN!!!!!!?

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=will-it-snow;sess=

[TwisterGirl81]

Touch and go on the last run, but some would be pleased with this surely?

Yes everywhere but the southwest ie Devon & Cornwall yet again!!!!!....Hopefully the charts will look better for us later

[Frosty_wsm]

Touch and go on the last run, but some would be pleased with this surely?

Are those based on the gfs? If so I'm not worried about those one bit, the model I'm paying the most attention to is the ukmo for me and not the gfs!

And nope that's not because the ukmo is the best for our region, it's all to do with the fact that the ukmo had been the most stable model in the run upto this cold spell and during it, not showing wild swings which both the gfs and ecm has, so here's to a great 12z ukmo this afternoon

[quantock girl]

Just having the potential has me rocking in my chair.

Snap!

[cerneman]

I'm basically ignoring the GFS on this event, esp for the fine detail of where and when.

Sticking with Meto, ecm and Ian's updates.

yes they'll chop and change but that's the nature of this particular beast, me thinks.

This is not a classic 78/79 type event imo, as a couple of posters in the Mad disc forum have alluded to. Back then proper cold air was already entrenched and the south west and south situ was not marginal. This event seems to have much more marginality about it for our whole region.

I was down Weymouth on 18th Feb 78 visiting family, The wind was bitterly cold coming off the sea blowing sand along Esplanade, On that evening rain started falling about 6,30 but changed to heavy snow, By midnight had changed back to rain, but the depth of snow along Weymouth seafront was phenomenal, But your point that cold was much more entrenched that year is true,

[Bonjangle]

Yes everywhere but the southwest ie Devon & Cornwall yet again!!!!!....Hopefully the charts will look better for us later

Not by this , looks like you are in the best place with heavy snow .

[Bumpkin]

Is it just me that mis-reads the snow warnings from the Met? Instead of 'Yellow alert for snow' I read it as 'Alert for yellow snow'

[bradymk]

Great to see that metoffice warning, about time my area and the SW England had a good snowfall. Lets hope it stays that way and isnt too far east.