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South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 15/01/13 12z---->


A.J

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh
  • Location: Home: Bournemouth (Iford) Work: Eastleigh

Can visibly see the red-tinged shower clouds now that are heading from the east into the IOW from radar. Wind direction perfect now. Expecting a light shower in less than an hour. Local temp -1.1 here.

i've been watching that! i'd like it to pep up and head a bit more north west after it has passed you!

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Posted
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, cold and Storms
  • Location: Plympton St Maurice, Devon

One more before work, brilliant forecast by Carol just now.

Just said the areas highlighted in snow are where they THINK its going to happen, but all it takes is for the front to move slightly slower or slightly faster and it could all change. They just don't know!

Edited by Beast of Dartmoor
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Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos

yep like the latest tweet from Ian and much more inline with model output. Carols graphics seem way of the mark tbh but maybe its more of a softening exercise to get people to concentrate of snow. Still she should have shown the sw as snow as it would prevent all the silly confusion the forecast has caused.

Just watched her forecast - like u say quite a big difference compared to Ian's latest tweets.

Her graphics were showing 7c in the south west for Thursday - not conductive to a snow event.

Phew! It's only just after 8.00am - i can't think what i'll feel like by 8.00pm tonite!!

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

thats interesting from ian,so the met still not going with nae which looks llike it has caught a virusrofl.gif im further east tha most of you guys but the nae says rain for our region friday with uppers of -8? wtf?

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

NMM continues not to support the NAE too which is a positive sign.

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Last one from me before i take the dog and children out.

NAE chart at T48. Which apparently is too progressive !.

However it shows why even a southerly wind isnt a problem for snow, its only if the winds switch west of south that any dp's above 0 will travel in. Look at the dps to the south of the sw.....

post-6326-0-77830900-1358324931_thumb.gi

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

Latest from IanF

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re disruptive snow Friday. Potential for 12hrs snow across @bbcpointswest region frm Fri AM to Fri night

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Met Office modelling suggests 60-80% probability highest snowfall frm Exmoor extendIng E & N across most of@bbcpointswest region

Liking the sound of that smile.png

yep, Ian's also tweeted to ignore the NAE raw output (in this instance the ppn charts being too progressive) 10 mins ago...

...and in the last 5 mins...." Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Local nuances of Fri snowfall still uncertain but pragmatic approach now is to plan on increasing likelihood of a disruptive event"

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Pretty happy with this as well

@MattHugo81: Once again the 00Z EC ENS mean supports the Det model in tracking lows on a NW to SE track into next wk, which sustains the cold weather.

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Posted
  • Location: North Somerset
  • Location: North Somerset

Looking for some consistancy of lower temperatures IMBY today and tomorrow.

Yesterday hit 4.1 and last night minimum of -1.8 (not that cold for a cold spell!)

Hopefully no higher than 3 today.

Just looking for some confidence regarding Fridays possible event for North Somerset.

Could be very slushy Friday a low levels.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Think I will give the 6z a miss to be honest. 48 hours away from possible event I'm sticking with Met

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Posted
  • Location: Blackdown Hills, Devon 610ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and dry
  • Location: Blackdown Hills, Devon 610ft above sea level

Don't worry about temps for SW on BBC graphics, these are for Plymouth, much further west, UHI effect, max possible temp and right by the sea...unless of course you live in Plymouth!

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Posted
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall
  • Location: torpoint, cornwall

Don't worry about temps for SW on BBC graphics, these are for Plymouth, much further west, UHI effect, max possible temp and right by the sea...unless of course you live in Plymouth!

:-(

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Anyone got latest charts showing poss snow depths?

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Posted
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Blizzard, Hot & Sunny
  • Location: Bedhampton - Hampshire 30m above sea level.

Also met office have amended mine to sleet most of Friday rather than snow.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

A quick look at the models, and it was only a brief look.

We obviously have a snow event continuing to be shown on Friday now. We all know about that.

But looking quickly beyond Friday as a guide, I definetly wouldn't rule out further falling snowfall, especially in Northern & Eastern counties of our region.

I think Saturday will see mostly rain as less cold air does seen to influence us, but on Sunday this cold air backs westwards again, and with an approaching system off the Atlantic, we could have round two. It wouldn't take much of a shift SW of the system to do this.

Anyway, lets concentrate on Friday first. A decent snow event firming up now. All I'm trying to say is that it doesn't turn all too mild after Friday, and I wouldn't rule out further falling snowfall after Friday either.

All in all, a decent outlook for us. I'm feeling quite bullish about the second half of the month currently.

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Posted
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but foggy damp weather
  • Location: Cerne Valley Dorest

Nice frost this morning, Ice margins on River [ first time this season] Grayling actively feeding, Good sign water temps low [ Chalk stream]

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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

I think we'll have a new thread shortly, in time to digest the forthcoming 06z output and it's ramifications for our neck of the woods....So please finish off any posts, and I'll post the new link shortly

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Posted
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme
  • Location: Bridport, West Dorset

Latest from IanF

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Confidence now increasing re disruptive snow Friday. Potential for 12hrs snow across @bbcpointswest region frm Fri AM to Fri night

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Met Office modelling suggests 60-80% probability highest snowfall frm Exmoor extendIng E & N across most of@bbcpointswest region

Liking the sound of that :)

Just goes to show how fluid the situation is but as I keep emphasising the isobars need to have a more SE element to them otherwise along the south coast at least it will just be rain!
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Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland

righty o then, new thread here -------------->

locking this one in T minus 60 seconds and counting.................

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