Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[seabreeze86]

A good day here, had some heavy snow around 12ish which settled left a covering of 2-3 cm (the best since 2010). Had a few more hail and snow showers after that.

I live right on the coast so must of my snow has melted. But were i work there has been little melt so a good covering there, its only a mile away from the coast so just shows the difference being close to the sea makes.

[tynevalleysnow]

-4.2 and dp of -4.6 on top of 8cms of snow here now. Like a stone. -10 tonight anyone.

[Isolated Frost]

-3c touched here.

Glorious ECM.

Prolonged cold, especially for the east- some incredible snowfalls, especially for the west- but a bit of both for everyone. Ice days and sharp frosts across the snowfields.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Isolated Frost

[NickR]

I don't give a monkies about the West, I live in the North East and seeing as this is a North East thread then we can moan all we like!

As it happens, the ECM does look a little better for us in the NE than the GFS/UKMO in terms of hoping to catch a bit of that frontal band, its a little marginal albeit but I suppose we don't have much to lose really.

Should be a cold one tonight though, I think the easterly flow is now all but cut off so lets hope for clear skies and a very hard frost!

My thoughts exactly! I'm not into this "how great for the NW/SW/SE/Mids" nonsense. I live in the NE, I want the best snow here!

Also agree that I don't want any half-ar sed showers to ruin the falling temps. Tonight it's all about how cold it can get!

ECM looks to give hope... what about Sunday onwards on the models.. any good ones?

-3c touched here.

Glorious ECM.

Prolonged cold, especially for the east- some incredible snowfalls, especially for the west- but a bit of both for everyone. Ice days and sharp frosts across the snowfields.

Could you guesstimate what sorts of snowdepths we and the West respectively could get from that?

Hmmm... check this twitter convo out... possible chances of the low ending up further N? This woudl go against Steve Murr:

Matt: This really is impressive cold GFS12z ens for N Eng

Liam: Potentially a snowfest in the shorter term too...

Matt: Yeah for sure. I have a feeling the risk fo snow will extend well into the Midlands and N Eng on Friday...

Ian: new UKMO guidance agrees with you Matt, with change to rain in SW through Fri

Matt: Interesting, presumably 12Z based, but yeah as discussed think Midlands/N Eng will 'join the party' on Fri.

Ian also tweeted later to say that the Northward progress of the front remains uncertain in UKMO

[Alex95]

The ECM builds on the idea that we are to see an easterly flow next week - promising signals as far as snow chances go, but it hardly seems worth looking past Friday at the moment.

[NickR]

From "North Sea Snow Convection" on TWO:

Assuming the ECM was to verify the coldest air would start mixing out in the southern most counties by Saturday morning - so cold rain from the subsequent lows from then on. North of the M4 into the midlands probably snow through to at least Sunday before mixing out here maybe a little. From North midlands and especially Northern England northwards its looks cold and snowy throughout. However that is just an opinion on what the ECM shows at face value and there is some way to go yet

[Isolated Frost]

My thoughts exactly! I'm not into this "how great for the NW/SW/SE/Mids" nonsense. I live in the NE, I want the best snow here!

Also agree that I don't want any half-ar sed showers to ruin the falling temps. Tonight it's all about how cold it can get!

ECM looks to give hope... what about Sunday onwards on the models.. any good ones?

Could you guesstimate what sorts of snowdepths we and the West respectively could get from that?

Hmmm... check this twitter convo out... possible chances of the low ending up further N? This woudl go against Steve Murr:

Matt: This really is impressive cold GFS12z ens for N Eng

Liam: Potentially a snowfest in the shorter term too...

Matt: Yeah for sure. I have a feeling the risk fo snow will extend well into the Midlands and N Eng on Friday...

Ian: new UKMO guidance agrees with you Matt, with change to rain in SW through Fri

Matt: Interesting, presumably 12Z based, but yeah as discussed think Midlands/N Eng will 'join the party' on Fri.

Ian also tweeted later to say that the Northward progress of the front remains uncertain in UKMO

We would be cold, very cold based on the ECMWF 12z suite- it's an absolute stonker.

In terms of snow, I'd say quite a bit- the progression and tilt is mainly SSE-NNW- which is very encouraging for us here- there would be some amazing totals-

Dream scenario for me is- (note DREAM!!!!)

Friday heavy snow here, Saturday cold and dry

Sunday reinforces that cold east flow via a weak cold trough- Monday has some snow from the east-

Then the rest of next week, heavy snow across central and western parts- to enhance the british view of the spell

and whilst this is happening, we have our snowfields and clear skies with temps PLUMMETING .. -15c's possible on the EC suite

and after the record cold, we then look at the convective NElies to end the month

ay... we can dream- but the 12zs suite would all give the NE of England some significant snow and cold down the line- just in different ways... very encouraging signs... and no sign of milder weather on it's way- icy...

-3.2c now, Nick, I agree, tonight is about the cold- let's get ourselves a deep frost on top of the snow

[Cloud 10]

A proper winter's day today with a nice spell of snow around lunchtime and a few more

showers afterwards adding to the 3 inches+ covering.

The snow seems very powdery here now due to the lower temps which are now in freefall.

Looks like more fun and games to come as well,judging by the latest model output.

[Isolated Frost]

From "North Sea Snow Convection" on TWO:

Assuming the ECM was to verify the coldest air would start mixing out in the southern most counties by Saturday morning - so cold rain from the subsequent lows from then on. North of the M4 into the midlands probably snow through to at least Sunday before mixing out here maybe a little. From North midlands and especially Northern England northwards its looks cold and snowy throughout. However that is just an opinion on what the ECM shows at face value and there is some way to go yet

I think she is on Netweather also with a different alias-

I would agree with that assessment- particular as the ECMWF 12z has uppers below -4c over NE England for it's entirety, and plenty of precipitation-synoptics.. Scotland, N England, the Midlands the best places imo- and perhaps the South at times.

[Alex95]

The ECM precipitation charts aren't spectacular for the NE, but I'd expect the mildish North Sea to pep up the front a bit, as well as some orographic lift due to the onshore wind. Still, every 12z tonight would probably give 10cm or more by Monday with cold easterlies continuing thereafter.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[Isolated Frost]

The ECM precipitation charts aren't spectacular for the NE, but I'd expect the mildish North Sea to pep up the front a bit, as well as some pornographic lift due to the onshore wind. Still, every 12z tonight would probably give 10cm or more by Monday with cold easterlies continuing thereafter.

I think we could do without that mate!

[Snowstorm1]

The ECM precipitation charts aren't spectacular for the NE, but I'd expect the mildish North Sea to pep up the front a bit, as well as some orographic lift due to the onshore wind. Still, every 12z tonight would probably give 10cm or more by Monday with cold easterlies continuing thereafter.

The ECM precipitation charts aren't spectacular for the NE, but I'd expect the mildish North Sea to pep up the front a bit, as well as some orographic lift due to the onshore wind. Still, every 12z tonight would probably give 10cm or more by Monday with cold easterlies continuing thereafter.

give me a 1cm covering ill be happy!

[Alex95]

I think we could do without that mate!

I know man, stupid predictive typing! That's happened to me before

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[Summer Sun]

So in summary hows things looking for the NE from Friday potential for snow this weekend?

Any more snow on tonight's radar or are we done for a bit?

From the MOD thread

Phil Avery's latest bulletin includes his "concern" as fronts march east at the weekend.

Edited January 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Isolated Frost]

EC has heavy snow and sleet over the NW on Friday- the front backs eastwards and gives some lighter snow here on late Fri and Sat. Heavy snow on Sunday with a much favourable flow.

[Alex95]

So in summary hows things looking for the NE from Friday potential for snow this weekend?

Any more snow on tonight's radar or are we done for a bit?

We won't get a National Emergency warning will we?! the models keep us locked in this cold for a long time yet

1) Still very much up in the air. We need a bit of luck to get something from the front, but if we don't then it looks likely that we'll get some snow from the North Sea again.

2) I think we are done now.

3) I doubt it, it doesn't seem that bad yet. I think it would take another 1947 where it goes on for weeks on end, with proper blizzards and drifting snow to reach that stage.

[Summer Sun]

EC has heavy snow and sleet over the NW on Friday- the front backs eastwards and gives some lighter snow here on late Fri and Sat. Heavy snow on Sunday with a much favourable flow.

Thanks that goes with the met offices thoughts for darlo

Friday evening - light snow

Saturday - light snow all day

Sunday - ?????? we'll find out tomorrow - Though the beebs further ahead forecast goes for sleet which I refuse to believe with max temps of 1c

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/darlington#?tab=fiveDay&fcTime=1358208000

Edited January 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

This seems a fair summary from frosty39 in the MOD thread

The 12z runs this afternoon have ramp alerts stamped all over them, and it's all so close we can almost touch it. Friday remains the pivotal day as the fronts hit the entrenched cold block of air over the BI, I can now picture metoffice going through their various levels of alerts through to the highest level by fri/sat.

If the far northeast of the UK miss the main disruptive band of heavy snow/gales, they will still get blitzed by snow showers as winds strengthen and pressure falls, the further n and east you are in the UK should be a safe bet to remain bone chillingly cold with either persistent snow or snow flurries/showers, the position of the main zone of high impact weather is still to be nailed, but it does now look like most of the UK will remain locked in cold air with severe windchill, penetrating frosts and either prolonged snow or snow showers.

[Boro Snow]

freezing fog in darlo

[Summer Sun]

freezing fog in darlo

Thats rolled in quick I looked out the window just before 19:30 and it was clear

[Summer Sun]

This was Ian Fergusson's BBC points west forecast for Friday of course things remain uncertain but it gives a UK picture

Ignore the warning box as thats for the south west

Edited January 15, 2013 by Gavin.

[Summer Sun]

freezing fog in darlo

Just looked outside there isn't any fog we've got orange cloud coming over which is preventing the temperature from getting well into minus digits at -1.2°C currently

[Dandy]

Came home from work at 7 and the fog was rolling across the A1....busy night for my work folks possibly

[Isolated Frost]

The EC output for Friday would be snowier than the GEM, UKMO and GFS, but all output would give us snow on Friday. That, for me, is a big positive.

The GFS and GEM solutions are basically completely similar, with the BBC forecast above trending towards that it seems- though the UKMO solution is the halfway house between the American and European output.

At 96 we have a diversified range of solutions- from a formed trough to the SW on the GEM, to the slack SE flow on the EC and GFS output- UKMO a halfway house again.

If I'm going to look at it from a snow POV for the NE-

72

1. ECMWF

2. UKMO

3. GFS

4. GEM

96

1. GFS

2. UKMO/ECMWF

3. GEM

120

1. GFS

2. GEM

3. ECMWF/UKMO

144

1. GEM

2. GFS

3. ECMWF

4. UKMO

For substantial long-lasting cold-

1. GFS

2. GEM

3. ECMWF

4. UKMO

That's how good the 12zs were... every model were giving their own take on the situation... and each take was cold and bitter!

[Andy_]

This was Ian Fergusson's BBC points west forecast for Friday of course things remain uncertain but it gives a UK picture

Ignore the warning box as thats for the south west

2-5cm for low levels in the South West? That isn't very impressive for such a 'big event' Aren't they supposed to be getting the most lmao.. surely more than that anyways.