Far North of England Regional - Cold Spell Discussion 15/01/13 12z onwards

[Isolated Frost]

2-5cm for low levels in the South West? That isn't very impressive for such a 'big event' Aren't they supposed to be getting the most lmao.. surely more than that anyways.

Nope- latest modelling predicts the West Midlands and potentially the NW of England will get the most- with the South, South East, East Midlands, Yorkshire, N Ireland and parts of NE England to clip the rest of it. Plenty of opportunity for change, for good or for worse.

[jennyifer]

Just looked outside there isn't any fog we've got orange cloud coming over which is preventing the temperature from getting well into minus digits at -1.2°C currently

i just drove from one side of darlo to the other and there is pockets of fog here and there,very thick in parts.

[Continental Climate]

Nope- latest modelling predicts the West Midlands and potentially the NW of England will get the most- with the South, South East, East Midlands, Yorkshire, N Ireland and parts of NE England to clip the rest of it. Plenty of opportunity for change, for good or for worse.

Hi IF what do you think about the uppers being slightly the wrong side of marginal come the weekend as from 96 onwards we lose the -8's and are into -4 and -6s granted that should still be ok but it might be getting close in low lying areas

I was looking solely at the ECM mind you to get those figures

Edited January 15, 2013 by Continental Climate

[NickR]

Hi IF what do you think about the uppers being slightly the wrong side of marginal come the weekend as from 96 onwards we lose the -8's and are into -4 and -6s granted that should still be ok but it might be getting close in low lying areas

I was looking solely at the ECM mind you to get those figures

ECM was a big MILD outlier!!! anyone seen the other runs to see what synoptics they give?

[Boro Snow]

Just looked outside there isn't any fog we've got orange cloud coming over which is preventing the temperature from getting well into minus digits at -1.2°C currently

i no it didnt last long and the temp has increased a bit

[Isolated Frost]

^ We'll be fine- the uppers will be cold enough- the flow is conductive to -5c uppers with such a battleground- the refill from the NE will be v cold come late month.

NW England, W Yorkshire, W Midlands should have at least 10-20cm on Friday.

NE England, SW Scotland, N and S Yorkshire, E Midlands, N Ireland, Wales, SW England (away from the extreme SW), East Anglia and the rest of southern England I'm looking at 5-10cm

Most of Scotland, coastal extremities of NE England, extremities of SW England should get at least 2cm.

It will be a very snowy day. If the ECM comes off, we would have a good amount. If the UKMO, similar but slightly less. The GFS and GEM is notably less. Swings and roundabouts to come.

[Alex95]

ECM was a big MILD outlier!!! anyone seen the other runs to see what synoptics they give?

I reckon low lying areas would get a thaw at some point this weekend if the ECM came off chart for chart.

This is what I'm hoping to see some more of:

http://forum.netweat...23#entry2505923

Edited January 15, 2013 by Alza

[Andy_]

-Just for fun- here's an Accuweather forecast predicting 120mm of snow next thursday! LOL

[Boro Snow]

2-5cm for low levels in the South West? That isn't very impressive for such a 'big event' Aren't they supposed to be getting the most lmao.. surely more than that anyways.

thats what i thought an undercutter should dump more than that i suspect itll turn to rain after a few hours so that will be the max of snow they will get

[Isolated Frost]

-5c at NCL with fog. Fabulous.

Thinking if we do get snow on Friday- then we can stand the slack flows without any snow, because we would get some incredibly low temps on the snowfields. Just hoping Thurs and Fri post some snow, maybe some E movements to help it- but latest forecasts would give us quite a bit

[Continental Climate]

-5c at NCL with fog. Fabulous.

Thinking if we do get snow on Friday- then we can stand the slack flows without any snow, because we would get some incredibly low temps on the snowfields. Just hoping Thurs and Fri post some snow, maybe some E movements to help it- but latest forecasts would give us quite a bit

Sorry for being dense here IF but are we forecast snow on thursday as well i havent heard that!! If so brilliant, im hoping by next tuesday we could have 15cm in durham, bloody marvelous!!

[Isolated Frost]

Yeah- BBC forecasts rather optimistic on the prospect of snow shrs come Thursday as the atlantic system moves in to disturb and retrogress the scandinavian ridge-

Anyone else notice the Look North prediction of -9c in Durham tomorrow morning?

[Cloud 10]

Yeah- BBC forecasts rather optimistic on the prospect of snow shrs come Thursday as the atlantic system moves in to disturb and retrogress the scandinavian ridge-

Anyone else notice the Look North prediction of -9c in Durham tomorrow morning?

Wouldn't be surprised if somewhere got into minus double digits by the morning,temperatures are

widely between -4 and -6 across the region at the moment.

Vaisala ICE : Traffic Weather

Maybe somewhere like Houghall could get the lowest?

[Snowmaggedon]

Got some relatively light snow in Middlesbrough in the last 20 mins, could we see anymore snow tonight?

[Summer Sun]

i no it didnt last long and the temp has increased a bit

Thought it must of been quick went as quickly as it arrived

[Summer Sun]

We are down to -1.4°C with a dew point of -3.7°C cloud cover is preventing us going really low at the moment

[NickR]

OK... I might be wrong, but I see the 18z as the front doesn't make it as far E, but the result is that we keep a better SE'ly flow with very cold uppers - so hefty showers. Am I right?

[Alex95]

OK... I might be wrong, but I see the 18z as the front doesn't make it as far E, but the result is that we keep a better SE'ly flow with very cold uppers - so hefty showers. Am I right?

Yep - but rather than the usual showers it seems like a more organised feature tied in with the low on Saturday on is run. Very subtle differences compared with the 12z, but enough to give us more in the way of snow.

[Continental Climate]

OK... I might be wrong, but I see the 18z as the front doesn't make it as far E, but the result is that we keep a better SE'ly flow with very cold uppers - so hefty showers. Am I right?

Yep mate this chart highlights it http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn841.png!! More easterly element to the wind hefty showers off this chart, haha squeaky bum time for those in the west, my heart bleeds

[Alex95]

Heavy snow in the NE on Saturday night on the 18z - this is why I wanted to see a more easterly flow! Less marginal too as the v. cold uppers are drawn in.

[Snowstorm1]

Heavy snow in the NE on Saturday night on the 18z - this is why I wanted to see a more easterly flow! Less marginal too as the v. cold uppers are drawn in.

Think id even get a covering of this hahahaaa

[Isolated Frost]

Well.. it's shifted west.

So, we don't get effected by the frontal system

but we do by convective showers

And you know how much we love convective showers. Result either way!

-4.1c here... BRR!

[damianslaw]

Last night was much milder than predicted thanks to much more cloud and a stiff wind, alas today wasn't as cold as it would have been had we seen a colder night. Anyhow, tonight will be much colder here thanks to no wind and clear skies, which means we have a small chance of seeing an ice day tomorrow.

My attention is turning to Friday, BBC suggest the snow will hit coastal parts and much of Merseyside/southern lancs, wouldn't take much for it to reach south lakes, in such set ups we can see very heavy snow, would be good to see a hefty fall of more than 6 inches, last time we saw a heavy fall was in late Dec 09. Dec 10 delivered 4 inches at best and we saw 4-5 inches last Feb. The fells should see a deluge..

[Freezing-Point]

Its -4.6c here already.

[Alex95]

-3C here with fog