South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 16/01/13 06z ----->

[Nights King]

I quite agree, something doesnt add up when the meto forecast is for 12 hrs of heavy snow but only 5-15cm..... Heavy in my book is at least 2mm an hr if not alot more....

If the charts stay similar to this and we don't get to much eastwards shift etc then 15cm for high ground would seem a bit too conservative!?

I might even see the magic foot? Now that would be epic!

[AWD]

Eastward movement of front, but still keeps the sw under the precip, so it doesnt really matter, trend seems to emerging to push the cold air back into devon etc pretty earlier during friday night which will help to keep the sw under snow.

Totals of 15-25cm widely on the gfs again so i would expect given this and the nae that evertthing is raised to an amber alert and precip totals maybe increased.

Ian has just confirmed on twitter that Amber warnings are likely to be released around midday.

Lets see where they are.

Be interesting to see the 12z NAE. If it pivots after the current 06z 48 hour frame then it could be a good run.

If it continues eastwards then its likely to turn to rain from the SW.

Edited January 16, 2013 by AWD

[gottolovethisweather]

If the charts stay similar to this and we don't get to much eastwards shift etc then 15cm for high ground would seem a bit too conservative!?

I might even see the magic foot? Now that would be epic!

And then add in the wind.

Get your oil delivered sharpish.

[Iceberg]

So to give a total ramp.

You still have today and tomorrow to stock up via the shops.

With a possible 20-30cm of snow travel will be very difficult if not impossible for some after friday.

Saturday night will be bone chillingly cold down to - double digits which will only make the snow hard and last longer.

Monday *could* be another 20-30cm day.

With blizzards, drifting upto and beyond 1m could well occur.

Prepare for the worst which is that some rural folks might not be able to get out for a good 5 days from friday.

There that should prevent it from happening.

[Coast]

I might even see the magic foot? Now that would be epic!

Get your skies ready Mullender!

[coxxy22]

well i personaly have never seen the charts be this consistant from run to run with only slight variations between lol for a 6z run i think its a belter !! cant wait to see the 12z !!

[fromey]

morning, a little tweet from Ian F

Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather

W COUNTRY Uplands facing E/SE on Fri likely to catch heaviest snow. Particular focus expected in Forest of Dean; parts of Cotswolds; Mendips

[latitude]

So to give a total ramp.

You still have today and tomorrow to stock up via the shops.

With a possible 20-30cm of snow travel will be very difficult if not impossible for some after friday.

Saturday night will be bone chillingly cold down to - double digits which will only make the snow hard and last longer.

Monday *could* be another 20-30cm day.

With blizzards, drifting upto and beyond 1m could well occur.

Prepare for the worst which is that some rural folks might not be able to get out for a good 5 days from friday.

There that should prevent it from happening.

Cannot beleave you just posted that......never heard such a ramp for the SW! Now Im worried.....haha.

[Stormyking]

Woke up to a pleasant suprise this morning about 9ish, woke up to a lovely snow shower, which gave a ligh dusting on the ground, roofs and cars:D

[Nights King]

Wow I just looked at local net weather forecast and added up totals for friday into saturday 32mm which is roughly 32cm of snow

If only...

[coram]

Ian has just confirmed on twitter that Amber warnings are likely to be released around midday.

Lets see where they are.

Be interesting to see the 12z NAE. If it pivots after the current 06z 48 hour frame then it could be a good run.

If it continues eastwards then its likely to turn to rain from the SW.

You're right, it all depends on whether the pivot happens. At the moment I would go for a snow to rain event on Friday with mostly rain on Saturday and all rain on Sunday. North and east of Somerset could see some good accumulations on Friday, but I would doubt that anyone will see more than 15cm (6 inches). Most if not all of this will be washed away by Sunday. This is shaping up to be a disappointment for our region and I don't expect to see a westward correction on the 12z.

[Ali1977]

Ian F just tweeted saying early next week being watched closely too, that may tie in with GFS charts showing another snow event...Great times if you like snow...

[PompeyFC]

and your basis for that coram is......backed up with charts and some analysis ?

That is not what some of the models are suggesting !

[gottolovethisweather]

So to give a total ramp.

You still have today and tomorrow to stock up via the shops.

With a possible 20-30cm of snow travel will be very difficult if not impossible for some after friday.

Saturday night will be bone chillingly cold down to - double digits which will only make the snow hard and last longer.

Monday *could* be another 20-30cm day.

With blizzards, drifting upto and beyond 1m could well occur.

Prepare for the worst which is that some rural folks might not be able to get out for a good 5 days from friday.

There that should prevent it from happening.

Personally, I don't think you'll be far wrong either.

As ever, there will be some folk who are left waiting and wanting but this has the makings of something special.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You're right, it all depends on whether the pivot happens. At the moment I would go for a snow to rain event on Friday with mostly rain on Saturday and all rain on Sunday. North and east of Somerset could see some good accumulations on Friday, but I would doubt that anyone will see more than 15cm (6 inches). Most if not all of this will be washed away by Sunday. This is shaping up to be a disappointment for our region and I don't expect to see a westward correction on the 12z.

You couldn't be more wrong, I'm not even bother trying to explain again, you have nothing to suggest what you say to be true, Cornwall the area where it could turn to rain, anything from Taunton east will be all snow .

Edited January 16, 2013 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[lfcdude]

Wow I just looked at local net weather forecast and added up totals for friday into saturday 32mm which is roughly 32cm of snow

If only...

Only 28,3 for me...

[Buzz]

So to give a total ramp.

You still have today and tomorrow to stock up via the shops.

With a possible 20-30cm of snow travel will be very difficult if not impossible for some after friday.

Saturday night will be bone chillingly cold down to - double digits which will only make the snow hard and last longer.

Monday *could* be another 20-30cm day.

With blizzards, drifting upto and beyond 1m could well occur.

Prepare for the worst which is that some rural folks might not be able to get out for a good 5 days from friday.

There that should prevent it from happening.

With a ramp like that you could well end up in orbit ................

[offerman]

What amounts are we talking here, My prognosis as studied this a little is rain to snow conversion:

Now on my weatherpro app it says 16mm rain for Friday and when converted to snow can be the following:

1mm rain = x 3 if wet snow

1mm rain= 1cm if more powder

1mm rain in mountain areas can be more than this

So the 16mm rain forecast here could be 16cm snow if its powder. or at least 10 cm if somewhere in between powder and wet.

[Gina]

I'm a long-term lurker as I have nothing of interest to add - but I just want to say I'm so excited!!! I'm even going to venture into the loft to locate and prepare the fleet of sledges (which will guarantee hours of rain).

[gottolovethisweather]

MOVING ON...................................

Play nice guys n gals and where possible, unlike in the MOD thread, back up your posts with the latest information available.

If anybody needs to reply to postings which seem against the grain, there is always the option to reply by PM.

[Mumbles]

Right...what's my chances of seeing any significant now on Friday and if yes what sort of time we looking at? Please x

[Gibby]

Sorry if posted already but I tweeted Ian to see what was likely to happen beyond the weekend. He replied 'we are watching developments early next week'. It gets better.

[theprophecyman]

Only 28,3 for me...

29.5 for Frome ........ bring it on

[offerman]

Morning Fromey, I`m facing southeast toward Cley Hill but in Frome(Bath side) full blast possible here then judging ny that tweet,

[gottolovethisweather]

What amounts are we talking here, My prognosis as studied this a little is rain to snow conversion:

Now on my weatherpro app it says 16mm rain for Friday and when converted to snow can be the following:

1mm rain = x 3 if wet snow

1mm rain= 1cm if more powder

1mm rain in mountain areas can be more than this

So the 16mm rain forecast here could be 16cm snow if its powder. or at least 10 cm if somewhere in between powder and wet.

Correct. I nearly always use the 1mm = 1cm rule.

That's if I ever see any snow that is.