Three Counties & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 16th 2013 19:00hrs>

[Captain Shortwave]

No point bothering looking at the 18z, when the mods and Ian Brown are condemning the run to the bin, you cannot trust a single frame of it (defaults after just 120h)

[CanadaAl]

You mean its colder?

I don't think so, unless it's an extreme microclimate here, it always shows about 4 degrees below, so it does follow current temperature, just 4 degrees below. Very odd

[Ice Day]

This has been the most enjoyable period of model watching since I discovered NW 6 years ago. The interesting thing is, the charts we're seeing at T48 we're normally used to seeing at T264 which disappear around 2 days later. I'm not convinced we're going to get a huge dump from the first event but the days after could produce a memorable (and historic) spell of weather.

[Snowangel-MK]

just watched bbc news there a amber alert for us

Regions affected by Amber warning:

East Midlands, North West England, South West England, Wales, West Midlands, Yorkshire & Humber

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-4.50&lat=55.74&fcTime=1358251260&regionName=uk

[If Wishes made Weather]

Well looking at the updated FAX charts, and the metoffice own website, they are showing a decaying front kicking around the region on Friday late, Saturday and into Sunday giving light show for 24hrs. If that falls at just 1mm per hour PPN, then over that could just land us with 24 cm of snow, even at half that its reasonably respectable surely for the first shot even if we aren't into the blizzard thing. Nevertheless, my guess is transport will be up the spout for a while so a bit of extra shopping tomorrow before the fun and games start.

[saint]

Tonight's summary? Good, we're all happy, model makes us all sad, then we realise it's generally a poor run and should be binned, and we're kind of happy again?

[snowking]

That's very much the risk I'm looking at presently Tim

The snowfall is all between the main occlusion to our SW, and the upper occluded front just to our north. When the shortwave heads SE into the channel, we start to see the whole frontal system pivot, this can be seen on the fax between 60 and 72, and you can also see the start of it on the NAE between 42 and 48.

That was a scenario suddenly thrown by the the 12z UKMO and GFS (havnt had a proper look at the GFS 18z to check if it's stil there) but that was what has been modelled on the FAX this evening.

The risk from this is that the northern part of the system (up across the north of England) dies and fragments, whilst more energy is thrown up from the channel into the southern system, as we see this slowly align itself more west-east.

This of course is assuming the precipitation reaches us in the first place, but its an interesting prospect, 24 hours potentially of light, dry snowfall

SK

[Yarmy]

Just to repeat what I said earlier, we had a brief (minutes) shower of wispy snow this afternoon and yet it started to accumulate quickly on the surfaces because they are bone dry and freezing cold. Now 24 hours of light snow would leave God knows how much, then add to that a subsequent bitter Easterly over a relatively warm North Sea and I think we should be careful what we wish for.

Edited January 16, 2013 by Yarmy

[TEITS]

Just add what I said in the model discussion thread.

Have to be honest Nick im not surprised the models are beginning to be less keen on moving this front E. I said in the regional discussion thread this afternoon that members in E Anglia need to be cautious and to not get their hopes up too high. Sometimes in these situations you are actually better off using experience from past events than using the models.

So im going to come off the fence and say those in E Anglia/SE might only see a dusting and only that applies to those in the W of these regions. I can see locations such as Norwich remaining dry. I reckon the extent of this front will be probably around Birmingham and even the W Midlands will see this front weaken. I would love to be wrong but I remain unconvinced of the BBC forecasts and feel the Met O warnings are OTT.

[If Wishes made Weather]

... and bearing in mind that the snow will be falling onto frozen dry ground so we don't need a couple of hours before it starts to stick which is good. On a side point, in Germany I once experienced a rain to snow event that left circa 20cm snow stuck to a layer of ice. Hell of a job cleaning the pavement. Ended up chiseling it off (in Germany the householder is responsible for clearing the footpath in front of his/her property).

[Andy H]

Just add what I said in the model discussion thread.

Have to be honest Nick im not surprised the models are beginning to be less keen on moving this front E. I said in the regional discussion thread this afternoon that members in E Anglia need to be cautious and to not get their hopes up too high. Sometimes in these situations you are actually better off using experience from past events than using the models.

So im going to come off the fence and say those in E Anglia/SE might only see a dusting and only that applies to those in the W of these regions. I can see locations such as Norwich remaining dry. I reckon the extent of this front will be probably around Birmingham and even the W Midlands will see this front weaken. I would love to be wrong but I remain unconvinced of the BBC forecasts and feel the Met O warnings are OTT.

I used to like you!!

[Sweetdream]

I'm not surprised with TEITS forecast. I replied to a post earlier in regards to the extent and felt it would turn out to be much similar to 2010 event.

[TEITS]

I used to like you!!

Trust me I really hope im wrong and maybe I am. Hopefully we shall know alot more after tomorrow mornings output. I just want members to have this in the back of their mind so if we don't see the snow as the BBC/Met O are predicting then we might have less disappointment.

[Andy H]

I know mate! Just hope this pushes a bit further east so all can get in on the action

[CanadaAl]

Trust me I really hope im wrong and maybe I am. Hopefully we shall know alot more after tomorrow mornings output. I just want members to have this in the back of their mind so if we don't see the snow as the BBC/Met O are predicting then we might have less disappointment.

Just out of interest.. do you think we could see some surprise covective snowfall coming off the north sea off that strong South Easterly? Just a thought

[Buzzard]

Well glad to be on the western side of the region for the next event. Although was planning to watch the mighty Cherries at Walsall on Saturday...but no chance of that going ahead !

[donna-m]

Trust me I really hope im wrong and maybe I am. Hopefully we shall know alot more after tomorrow mornings output. I just want members to have this in the back of their mind so if we don't see the snow as the BBC/Met O are predicting then we might have less disappointment.

Long time since ive posted but thought Id finally would, I am one totally aware and not expecting anything from this Friday /Saturday as someone a few years ago ( yourself i think) said never expect anything in our region from a westerly only a Easterly - This has proved right over the years, especially for me next to the coast. Still Hope I'm wrong as would love to see a few flakes

[Timmytour]

On this rollercoaster ride, I'm currently headed down. I think it's possible, stress possible not probable, that we have a non event in terms of snow in Herts on the friday and then the front on monday passes through quickly with the Atlantic taking control as per the GFS 18z.

I'm wondering how I'm gonna feel about things if it turns out this way. December was bad enough!

[Hammer]

Long time since ive posted but thought Id finally would, I am one totally aware and not expecting anything from this Friday /Saturday as someone a few years ago ( yourself i think) said never expect anything in our region from a westerly only a Easterly - This has proved right over the years, especially for me next to the coast. Still Hope I'm wrong as would love to see a few flakes

For you at the coast, but this region has had some wonderful snow from the West.

[suffolkboy_]

Are we still expecting maybe a little bit of light snow tomorrow evening first? I know this was mentioned.

I have enjoyed the burger jokes this evening.

I didn't however enjoy my Tesco burgers for dinner....still got a bit between my teeth

Sorry....feel free to hate me for that one.

To eat or not to eat a Tesco burger.......that is equestrian.

Edited January 16, 2013 by suffolkboy_

[Sweetdream]

For you at the coast, but this region has had some wonderful snow from the West.

South and slightly west always does best but the further north and slightly more east in east anglia miss most snow events. With a n/ e flow it either goes down the central band or clips the coast, I have known snow to come from the north go into pebo hit around sawty and dry further inland.

[geminitracie]

Are we still expecting maybe a little bit of light snow tomorrow evening first? I know this was mentioned.

I have enjoyed the burger jokes this evening.

I didn't however enjoy my Tesco burgers for dinner....still got a bit between my teeth

Sorry....feel free to hate me for that one.

To eat or not to eat a Tesco burger.......that is equestrian.

I thought the horsey jokes had finished !

Edited January 16, 2013 by geminitracie

[Eskimo]

I thought the horsey jokes had finished !

That's a nice horse in your picture

[geminitracie]

That's a nice horse in your picture

Hmmmmm 😉

[Iceni]

This is the last I promise…

Horses for (main) courses.

Edited January 17, 2013 by Iceni