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North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

Snowangel-MK

By Snowangel-MK
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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

some consolation is that I am now seeing convection in the Irish sea not totally unexpected really

Would any of that head this way? I presume that something to do with the front over the West Midlands as well.

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Snowstorm nw Newbie

Snowstorm nw

Posted
Posted

....oh mate i know.......I think we all deep down (even the rampers) knew this would happen.......

very sad last night, it was trending away and there were members just not prepared to accept it...anyone being realistic... was being negative or relying on the pub run, or 'panicking' (that one came up alot)....totally understandable the disappointment but maybe next time...they wont all gang up on anyone being realistic?

Id say the #Continental but I wass in there watching the big 2010 fall...so that would be painfull

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Troubleatmill Community Regular

Troubleatmill

Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
Posted

....oh mate i know.......I think we all deep down (even the rampers) knew this would happen.......

very sad last night, it was trending away and there were members just not prepared to accept it...anyone being realistic... was being negative or relying on the pub run, or 'panicking' (that one came up alot)....totally understandable the disappointment but maybe next time...they wont all gang up on anyone being realistic?

Id say the #Continental but I wass in there watching the big 2010 fall...so that would be painfull

I was in the Conti in 2010 when the snow came too???????? mmm i have a plan lol!!

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

I wouldn't build your hoes up for any substantial snow during the next 7 days at least, the block to our east is just too strong. A mostly dry seven days at least, those in the South if the region probably seeing snow at some point.

You build your own hoes up if you want, I shall have to decline if I may!

LOL

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

After all that! Its not happening now, why meto still got same warnings then?

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Would any of that head this way? I presume that something to do with the front over the West Midlands as well.

maybe, at some point today, have no idea when though, just use nowcast and keep your eye on the radar, definite convection going on

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

maybe, at some point today, have no idea when though, just use nowcast and keep your eye on the radar, definite convection going on

Yeah, that's what I plan on doing.

I think you're all throwing your toys out of the pram too early. You can't say nothing is going to happen when it hasn't happened yet!

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Liam J Experienced

Liam J

Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
Posted (edited)

Update on the AA site from Matt Hugo, scroll down - http://www.theaa.com...-blog/index.jsp

Thursday 17 January, 9am

Friday’s snow and the weekend outlook

Forecasting snowfall across the UK is never straight forward for forecasters for a variety of reasons and latest model guidance has signaled some changes to the forecast for Friday compared to what was initially expected 24 hours ago.

A complex synoptic development along the weather front that was forecast to move more significantly into the UK now means the weather front will be held further west across the UK and this has changed the forecast somewhat. A risk of snow remains across Wales, the West Midlands and down into Southern England, but the risk of snowfall for more Central and Eastern areas of the Midlands and particularlyNorth-west England are now lower. Compared with the original idea of up to 10cm at least across these areas, snowfall totals for North-west England are now expected to be generally 2cm to 5cm at most. This will still cause some travel disruption, but the earlier possible extreme wintry conditions for NW England and Northern England in general is lower.

Edited by Liam J
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Bartlett Low Newbie

Bartlett Low

Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
  • Location: Chorlton, Manchester
Posted

I thought they'd take them off last night to be honest. Anyway like all snow events, anything can happen at the last minute.

Positives are any precipitation that makes it to the region will be all snow. No marginality, no rain to snow to rain then thaw. The cold is in place.

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SparkleS Community Regular

SparkleS

Posted
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow,snow!! Ooh and sunny,warm days!!!
  • Location: Leyland,Lancs, uk
Posted

Update on the AA site from Matt Hugo, scroll down - http://www.theaa.com...-blog/index.jsp

Just typical really but at least we will have snow, thats all im bothered about 2 to 5 cm is alot for this area.

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chris78 Enthusiast

chris78

Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
Posted

Yeah, that's what I plan on doing.

I think you're all throwing your toys out of the pram too early. You can't say nothing is going to happen when it hasn't happened yet!

agghh here we go again...nobody is throwing anything out of the pram........the posts that say...were panicking....toys out of pram..it could upgrade ect etc....they are the posts that scream.....but i WANT it to happen.....there was a major event in the models...now there isnt ...that is the long and short of it......

of course some people may get lucky....but the major event has gone...the only people throwing toys or being childish are the people refusing to accept it

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

agghh here we go again...nobody is throwing anything out of the pram........the posts that say...were panicking....toys out of pram..it could upgrade ect etc....they are the posts that scream.....but i WANT it to happen.....there was a major event in the models...now there isnt ...that is the long and short of it......

of course some people may get lucky....but the major event has gone...the only people throwing toys or being childish are the people refusing to accept it

4

the good thing at least for us, in the south we are still okay for now barring any last minute adjustments again..we'll just have to watch events as they happen.

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

agghh here we go again...nobody is throwing anything out of the pram........the posts that say...were panicking....toys out of pram..it could upgrade ect etc....they are the posts that scream.....but i WANT it to happen.....there was a major event in the models...now there isnt ...that is the long and short of it......

of course some people may get lucky....but the major event has gone...the only people throwing toys or being childish are the people refusing to accept it

Fair enough, all I wanted to get across is that nowcasting is always the best tool in these situations because things can change as late as T6.

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted

Right im a little confused about this.

so will the likes of Macclesfield get any or has that now been put to bed?

best wait for the 06z

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Shaun-reeves Newbie

Shaun-reeves

Posted
  • Location: 20 miles south of chester, cheshire
  • Location: 20 miles south of chester, cheshire
Posted

I still think maybe places in the south of the region, say Chester south still might do quite well out of this

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chris78 Enthusiast

chris78

Posted
  • Location: Preston
  • Location: Preston
Posted

Fair enough, all I wanted to get across is that nowcasting is always the best tool in these situations because things can change as late as T6.

of course of course and heres hoping they do! But I think we have to admitt the major event is a no go...although to be fair 2cm IS a major event here...fellow Fylde coasters would you agree 2cm for here is once in 5 year event?

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HotCuppa Newbie

HotCuppa

Posted
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
  • Location: Hale, Halton Cheshire
Posted (edited)

I still think maybe places in the south of the region, say Chester south still might do quite well out of this

the line currently is Liverpool , southwards, i think the further extent east is probably going to be warrington..but impossible to know

would still expect people to get some snow, even if it's only 2/5CM, its better than the nothing we where looking at last week or the week before..still further wintery showers possible through next week, particularly sunday night into Monday, although granted it could downgrade a

lot since its still a long way off

Edited by HotCuppa
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