North West England Regional Discussion - January 17th 2013. 12z onwards

[Chris.R]

of course of course and heres hoping they do! But I think we have to admitt the major event is a no go...although to be fair 2cm IS a major event here...fellow Fylde coasters would you agree 2cm for here is once in 5 year event?

Yes, I was just about to say that. It's the same on the Merseyside coast as well. I had never seen more than 5 cm of snow in my whole 18 year life until 2009, so in any other average winter 2 to 5 cm would be a major event.

[Ian Brown]

Just typical really but at least we will have snow, thats all im bothered about 2 to 5 cm is alot for this area.

I would think that even this will change to nothing later in the day, certainly for Northern and Eastern areas of the region because the front alignment will be Northern Ireland – North Wales – Shrops- maybe Birmingham.

The forecast for snow on Monday already looks wrong for the region.

[HotCuppa]

forecast on my station showing snow in the next 12 hours

at what time does the 06z come out?

[barkie]

Why is the met office wigan forecast still showing light snow from 6pm to midnight tonight then tomorrow light snow from 9am till midnight if it's all going south of Liverpool?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I would think that even this will change to nothing later in the day, certainly for Northern and Eastern areas of the region because the front alignment will be Northern Ireland – North Wales – Shrops- maybe Birmingham.

The forecast for snow on Monday already looks wrong for the region.

just light and patchy at best for our regions, a covering at least, we are way too far east, monday looks mainly dry for most areas in NW and NW midlands

[Troubleatmill]

I would think that even this will change to nothing later in the day, certainly for Northern and Eastern areas of the region because the front alignment will be Northern Ireland – North Wales – Shrops- maybe Birmingham.

The forecast for snow on Monday already looks wrong for the region.

I fear you are right Ian, one of those a few flurries in the air and an overcast day look likely, just a small kink overnight has caused the front to pivot, well if the snow wont come to me.......

[chris78]

Why is the met office wigan forecast still showing light snow from 6pm to midnight tonight then tomorrow light snow from 9am till midnight if it's all going south of Liverpool?

they dont update with every change...they wait until they have more data in ..have a good look at it and update warnings at 11...unlike us lot they take a measured balacned approach rather than jump form run to run

[Thunder Snow]

Latest bbc forecast does not even show any snow near me now, what a downgrade

[HotCuppa]

Liverpool metar EGGP 170500Z 1706/1806 14009KT 9999 SCT030 PROB40 TEMPO 1706/1710 9000 PROB30 TEMPO 1720/1803 3000 -SN BKN009 BECMG 1803/1806 1500 SN BR BKN005 - snow forecast

still waiting for update, which i think is at 10am but can't remember

decoded for people who can't read metars

Location: EGGP

Day of month: 17

Time: 05:00 UTC

Wind: True direction = 140 degrees, Speed: 9 knots

Visibility: 10 km or more

Clouds: Scattered , at 3000 feet above aerodrome level

The following weather phenomena are expected to arise temporarily:

Visibility: 9000 m

The following weather phenomena are expected to arise temporarily:

Visibility: 3000 m

Weather: Light Snow

Clouds: Broken sky , at 900 feet above aerodrome level

The following weather phenomena are expected to arise soon:

Visibility: 1500 m

Weather: Snow

Weather: Mist

Clouds: Broken sky , at 500 feet above aerodrome level

[UV-RAY]

Not only will we miss the snow but in typical easterly style, the skies are grey laden for the second day running, there was no frost during the night and the outlook is for much of the same. I hate easterly blocks with a vengeance, they hardly ever deliver for our region and keep us in a boring dull and cold regime.

[Joe Bloggs]

00z ECM still promising really, shame it's not a high-res mesoscale model. Still room for hope though http://m.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Manchester/long.html

[UV-RAY]

00z ECM still promising really, shame it's not a high-res mesoscale model. Still room for hope though http://m.yr.no/place...ester/long.html

One for the bin Joe.

[AderynCoch]

By the way, does anyone recall seeing the "Hugo Low" spawned by a battleground front before, or has it simply been invented for this occasion to ruin things for the NW?

[Chris.R]

By the way, does anyone recall seeing the "Hugo Low" spawned by a battleground front before, or has it simply been invented for this occasion to ruin things for the NW?

Ha ha I think the latter. Would be typical wouldn't it.

[HotCuppa]

http://m.yr.no/place/United_Kingdom/England/Hale/long.html Hale, Halton, Cheshire - looks good to me if it comes off

[Bartlett Low]

Most of the year no one would notice this small feature that is set to make such a difference in our fortunes.

[chris78]

http://expert-images...011818_1706.gif

TEITS just posted this in model thread...latest NAE...not really sure if its an upgrade or not...but there it is

[Troubleatmill]

Yes, I was just about to say that. It's the same on the Merseyside coast as well. I had never seen more than 5 cm of snow in my whole 18 year life until 2009, so in any other average winter 2 to 5 cm would be a major event.

you would of done in 1996 Chris although only one or two, Crosby for istance had 27cm of level snow, a similar situation just now with cold block in place and atlantic trying to push in and failing, very rare. Fed up myself as it looked the same until the over nighters came in, could change, who knows, things do.

[HotCuppa]

NAE is very unreliable

[Bartlett Low]

http://expert-images...011818_1706.gif

TEITS just posted this in model thread...latest NAE...not really sure if its an upgrade or not...but there it is

It is an upgrade but just doesn't look right to me.

[julie253]

I'm not even going to look at any more forecasts and just see what happens. We keep have a few flakes here in Wallasey. I am keeping everything crossed that at least we have enough for it to look pretty for a while and to build a big snowman!!

[HotCuppa]

It is an upgrade but just doesn't look right to me.

where is the snow supposed to come from to cover most of the country exactly?

[Cheshire Freeze]

FWIW the NMM was actually slightly better on its 0z run than the 18z

[Osamasbinsledgin]

To be honest, i'd be happy with 1 cm and a few frosts, rarely get much here, and when we have, they have usually not been ramped in advance

[HotCuppa]

I'm not even going to look at any more forecasts and just see what happens. We keep have a few flakes here in Wallasey. I am keeping everything crossed that at least we have enough for it to look pretty for a while and to build a big snowman!!

liverpool south and cheshire should do okay out of this, its to the north and the east where the problems are but then short term change can occur like it did last night